Colorado Rockies 2020 betting odds: Player props, Win totals, more

German Marquez Player Props:

Total Strikeouts- 75.5 (-115)
Total Wins- 4.5 (-115)

On to the pitchers! We get a pair of lines for Marquez from BetOnline.ag. We’ll start with strikeouts:

Assuming Marquez doesn’t miss a single start, he’ll get 12 starts this season. That’s in a perfect world, though. To be safe, we’ll roll with 11 starts as our baseline. In the past three seasons, Marquez has averaged 5.06, 6.97 and 6.25 Ks per start from 2017 thru 2019. Out of those, only his 2018 numbers would surpass this over (76.7 Ks estimated). In 2018 his FIP came in at 3.40 and the lowest FIP Fangraphs is projecting Marquez at is 3.94. And unless Marquez pitches like he did in 2018, then he won’t break this number since there’s so little room for error.

As for Total Wins (which we know is the holy grail of pitching stats as it measures their true performance far better than any other stat), Marquez generally posts up a win in 40.8% of his starts. That percentage sat at 42.8% in 2019 and 42.4% in 2018. So if we assume Marquez gets a win in 42% of his 11 starts in 2020, then that gets us to 4.62 wins. Since this just barely breaks the mark, we’ll be optimists about the line and go with the over.

Lines to take:

Total Strikeouts: Under 75.5 (-115)
Total Wins: Over 4.5 (-115)

Jon Gray Player Props:

Total Wins: 4.5 (-130 over/+100 under)

Can’t we get something better than just one line for Gray and that line only being wins? It’s whatever … we’ll take it.

Using the same methodology as we did with Marquez, we’ll assume Gray gets 11 starts this season. In Gray’s career, he gets a win in 37.7% of his starts. Over the past three seasons, he’s getting wins in 50%, 38.7% and 44%. That’s kind of all over the board. But let’s roll with the 44% number because it’s both in the middle of the ranges and the most recent. That’d mean that in 11 starts he’d get 4.84 wins. His FIP has been steady the past 2 seasons too, so we shouldn’t worry that there’s going to be any drastic changes.

Lines to Take:

Total Wins: Over 4.5 (-130)

Kyle Freeland Player Props:

Total Wins: 4.5 (-115)

OK now BetOnline.Ag, we’re going to need to talk about wins being the only lines to bet on here.

2020 is going to be a big year for Kyle Freeland. 2018 was one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a Rockies pitcher and 2019 was an utter disappointment after a blister completely derailed his season. A lot of his stats reverted back to his rookie season, with the exception that players were both hitting the ball harder off Freeland and  they were hitting more fly balls for home runs too. It was the perfect storm after such a memorable season.

Prior to last season’s abysmal 3-11, Freeland was averaging wins on 45.9% of his starts. That’d equate to over 5 wins in 2020 with 11 starts. I strongly believe that last year’s 13.6% Wins per Start percentage isn’t true to who Freeland is and that 2020 probably won’t be as high as his usual 45.9%. But … I am indeed a Kyle Freeland Guy and I will admit that’s influencing how I’m choosing this line here.

Lines to Take:

Total Wins: Over 4.5 (-115)

Wade Davis Player Props

Total Saves: 9.5 (-115)

You probably already know how this is gonna go but let’s still break it down anyways.

In 2019, the Rockies recorded a save in only 17.3% of games. In 2018, that number was 31.2% and, in 2017, it was 29%. In the best scenario for the Rockies that means we’d see about 19 saves this season. But for anyone who watched Wade perform last season knows it was a major, major struggle to watch. His ERA ballooned over 8.60 and his FIP jumped up 2 runs as well. Coincidentally teams hit him harder last season than any season in his career (39.8% Hard Hit Percentage).

Outside of all these numbers, that opened up the door for other pitchers to take a stab at the closer role. Scott Oberg and Jairo Diaz both got save opportunities last season and finished with 5 saves each to Davis’ 15. The only reason they got those chances was because of Davis’ struggles and that likely helps to open up the door for Diaz or Oberg to take over the closer role and slide Davis into a different role.

With 19 saves at best being out there, and three guys fighting for that closer spot, it’s really hard to trust that Davis will get 10 or more saves this season even if he keeps the job.

Lines to Take:

Total Saves: Under 9.5 (-115)