Nolan Arenado Player Props:
Batting Average Over/Under: .305 (-115)
RBI Over/Under: 42.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 12.5 (-115)
Let’s remember a couple things here real quickly before we breakdown these lines from BetOnline.Ag: Nolan still doesn’t have the best relationship with the front office. Nolan still has his opt out at the end of next year. And there’s still a trade deadline that we’ll inevitably have to think about.
All of this, combined with the shortened season, is turning a marathon into a high-stress sprint. That’s a ton more added pressure to perform in the clutch. Well guess who’s ridiculously awesome under pressure?
In his career, the only month Nolan has ever struggled in has been July. Whether that be because of the All-Star Break or something else mental, it’s the only month in his career where he has a wRC+ below 120. So, without a break and more high-pressure situations, he’s probably going to rake.
In two of the last three seasons, he’s hit above .305. In each of the past four seasons, he would have hit 13 or more HRs in a shortened season if we go by HRs per plate appearance. I’m fairly confident he’ll hit the over on both lines here.
My only question mark is the RBI total since it’s so team dependent. He’s dropped off in that category a touch in the past two seasons and that gives me some pause, especially since the roster is essentially the same this year. He’ll perform, but I’d be cautious there.
Lines to take:
Batting Average: Over .305 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 12.5 (-115)
Total RBI: Under 42.5 (-115)