Colorado Rockies 2020 betting odds: Player props, Win totals, more

Nolan Arenado Player Props:

Batting Average Over/Under: .305 (-115)
RBI Over/Under: 42.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 12.5 (-115)

Let’s remember a couple things here real quickly before we breakdown these lines from BetOnline.Ag: Nolan still doesn’t have the best relationship with the front office. Nolan still has his opt out at the end of next year. And there’s still a trade deadline that we’ll inevitably have to think about.

All of this, combined with the shortened season, is turning a marathon into a high-stress sprint. That’s a ton more added pressure to perform in the clutch. Well guess who’s ridiculously awesome under pressure?

In his career, the only month Nolan has ever struggled in has been July. Whether that be because of the All-Star Break or something else mental, it’s the only month in his career where he has a wRC+ below 120. So, without a break and more high-pressure situations, he’s probably going to rake.

In two of the last three seasons, he’s hit above .305. In each of the past four seasons, he would have hit 13 or more HRs in a shortened season if we go by HRs per plate appearance. I’m fairly confident he’ll hit the over on both lines here.

My only question mark is the RBI total since it’s so team dependent. He’s dropped off in that category a touch in the past two seasons and that gives me some pause, especially since the roster is essentially the same this year. He’ll perform, but I’d be cautious there.

Lines to take:

Batting Average: Over .305 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 12.5 (-115)
Total RBI: Under 42.5 (-115)

Charlie Blackmon Player Props:

Batting Average Over/Under: .305 (-115)
RBI Over/Under: 28.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 9.5 (-115)

With more appearances as a DH being very likely for Blackmon this season, that’s going to give him more time to rest and focus on hitting. Even though he’s getting up there in age, his bat should stay hot. In three of the past four seasons he’s had a batting average of .314 or higher and a wRC+ no lower than 117. He would have hit the over on HRs in three of the past four seasons as well. Chuck also would have hit the RBI mark in the same three seasons (it’s only 2018 holding everything back here). With the RBI mark so much lower for him than Nolan, and no automatic out pitchers in front of him, that number may be easier to achieve this season.

Lines to take:

Batting Average: Over .305 (-115)
RBI Total: Over 28.5 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 9.5 (-115)

Daniel Murphy Player Props:

Batting Average Over/Under: .299 (-115)
RBI Over/Under: 29.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 5.5 (-115)

Murphy didn’t exactly have the greatest season last year and it’s not likely to continue. Based off what we’ve started to see early this week with practice starting back up, McMahon may find himself at 1B more while Murphy will split time between 1B and DH. And let’s not forget that Matt Kemp is now a part of the team and would fit right into Murphy’s role as 1B/DH. He may be in danger of overall playing time and that’s going to influence some of these lines here.

Murphy has performed well in past seasons but his wRC+ has dropped off significantly over the past two. Even the most optimistic of projections on Fangraphs doesn’t have Murphy hitting above .292 in 2020. And with limited opportunities that puts his RBI total in danger to me as well. I do think that he’ll bounce back a little bit from last season and part of that will be actually learning how to hit a HR at Coors Field. But overall we’ll fade some of these lines.

Lines to take:

Batting Average: Under .299 (-115)
RBI Total: Under 29.5 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 5.5 (-115)

Trevor Story Player Props:

Batting Average Over/Under: .285 (-115)
RBI Over/Under: 37.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 12.5 (-115)

Story has been really, really good over the past two seasons and I don’t expect that to slow down any time soon. With a wRC+ over 120 in every season besides his sophomore slump in 2017, his hitting’s not going to drop off. Fangraphs has different ideas with their projections (expecting a wRC+ around 111), but I personally feel like that’s low given Story’s performance so far in his career.

He’s had back-to-back seasons with batting averages of .291 and .294. He also destroys everyone in the NL West not named the Dodgers, so we should expect that to continue in a season where your main opponents are divisional foes. He’d break this HR number in every year of his career besides 2017. But the RBI total is too high for me to consider. For a player worth just as much to the Rockies as Arenado, his betting lines are going to look similar:

Lines to take:

Batting Average: Over .285 (-115)
RBI Total: Under 37.5 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 12.5 (-115)

Ryan McMahon Player Props:

RBI Over/Under: 24.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 6.5 (-115)

We only get two lines for McMahon from BetOnline.ag to consider. The easiest one to consider is the HR total. In 2019, McMahon improved significantly in one main stat: HR/FB%. He hit 14.9% of all fly balls for HRs during the 1st half of the season last year and in the 2nd half that jumped to an incredible 40.5%. In all of 2019 only four qualified hitters had a HR/FB% above 30%, so that feels pretty significant for this line if McMahon performs any bit similarly.

Let’s put it another way. To hit 7 HRs and hit the over, Ryan McMahon would have to hit 18 fly balls if he keeps up his 40.5% HR/FB% he had in the second half last year. Seriously. That’s it. And if he hits it at his full 2019 average of 27.0%, then he’ll need to hit 26 fly balls. This doesn’t feel like it’s going to be tough to break whatsoever.

For the RBI total, Fangraphs projects anywhere between 24-27 RBI for McMahon. I’m an optimist and this could be a breakout season for McMahon where he gets more playing time at both 2B and 1B, so let’s hammer that Over because my gut is yelling, “Why not?” extremely loudly at me right now.

Lines to take:

RBI Total: Over 24.5 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 6.5 (-115)

David Dahl Player Props:

Total HRs: 9.5 (-115)

Only one line for our favorite Dahl Star? That’s a shame. And unfortunately this is a pretty tough line given Dahl’s past seasons. For instance, in 2016 he hit 7 HRs in 63 games. A clear under. But then in 2018 he blasted 15 HRs in 77 games. Clearly that trends towards the over. And in 2019 he hit 15 in 100 games, which skews us towards the under.

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And Fangraphs is only assuming he’ll get around 210 plate appearances this season, which equates to about 48 games. If he performs at 2017 and 2019 rates then that’s a clear under. If he performs like he did in 2018 then he’d hit around 13 HRs. I do believe he’ll play in more than 48 games, given he stays healthy, but I’m not sure if that’s enough.

If we break down his splits in 2019, Dahl hit 9 HRs at Coors in 210 Plate Appearances. He hit 6 HRs on the road in 203 Plate Appearances. Assuming Dahl hits for a similar wRC+ around 110, then I have to assume these power numbers will look similar. Dahl’s going to continue to hit for extra bases, but I’m feeling like 10 HRs may be a tough number for him to break. I’d love to be wrong but it’s hard for me to take the over here.

Lines to Take: 

Total HRs: Under 9.5 (-115)

German Marquez Player Props:

Total Strikeouts- 75.5 (-115)
Total Wins- 4.5 (-115)

On to the pitchers! We get a pair of lines for Marquez from BetOnline.ag. We’ll start with strikeouts:

Assuming Marquez doesn’t miss a single start, he’ll get 12 starts this season. That’s in a perfect world, though. To be safe, we’ll roll with 11 starts as our baseline. In the past three seasons, Marquez has averaged 5.06, 6.97 and 6.25 Ks per start from 2017 thru 2019. Out of those, only his 2018 numbers would surpass this over (76.7 Ks estimated). In 2018 his FIP came in at 3.40 and the lowest FIP Fangraphs is projecting Marquez at is 3.94. And unless Marquez pitches like he did in 2018, then he won’t break this number since there’s so little room for error.

As for Total Wins (which we know is the holy grail of pitching stats as it measures their true performance far better than any other stat), Marquez generally posts up a win in 40.8% of his starts. That percentage sat at 42.8% in 2019 and 42.4% in 2018. So if we assume Marquez gets a win in 42% of his 11 starts in 2020, then that gets us to 4.62 wins. Since this just barely breaks the mark, we’ll be optimists about the line and go with the over.

Lines to take:

Total Strikeouts: Under 75.5 (-115)
Total Wins: Over 4.5 (-115)

Jon Gray Player Props:

Total Wins: 4.5 (-130 over/+100 under)

Can’t we get something better than just one line for Gray and that line only being wins? It’s whatever … we’ll take it.

Using the same methodology as we did with Marquez, we’ll assume Gray gets 11 starts this season. In Gray’s career, he gets a win in 37.7% of his starts. Over the past three seasons, he’s getting wins in 50%, 38.7% and 44%. That’s kind of all over the board. But let’s roll with the 44% number because it’s both in the middle of the ranges and the most recent. That’d mean that in 11 starts he’d get 4.84 wins. His FIP has been steady the past 2 seasons too, so we shouldn’t worry that there’s going to be any drastic changes.

Lines to Take:

Total Wins: Over 4.5 (-130)

Kyle Freeland Player Props:

Total Wins: 4.5 (-115)

OK now BetOnline.Ag, we’re going to need to talk about wins being the only lines to bet on here.

2020 is going to be a big year for Kyle Freeland. 2018 was one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a Rockies pitcher and 2019 was an utter disappointment after a blister completely derailed his season. A lot of his stats reverted back to his rookie season, with the exception that players were both hitting the ball harder off Freeland and  they were hitting more fly balls for home runs too. It was the perfect storm after such a memorable season.

Prior to last season’s abysmal 3-11, Freeland was averaging wins on 45.9% of his starts. That’d equate to over 5 wins in 2020 with 11 starts. I strongly believe that last year’s 13.6% Wins per Start percentage isn’t true to who Freeland is and that 2020 probably won’t be as high as his usual 45.9%. But … I am indeed a Kyle Freeland Guy and I will admit that’s influencing how I’m choosing this line here.

Lines to Take:

Total Wins: Over 4.5 (-115)

Wade Davis Player Props

Total Saves: 9.5 (-115)

You probably already know how this is gonna go but let’s still break it down anyways.

In 2019, the Rockies recorded a save in only 17.3% of games. In 2018, that number was 31.2% and, in 2017, it was 29%. In the best scenario for the Rockies that means we’d see about 19 saves this season. But for anyone who watched Wade perform last season knows it was a major, major struggle to watch. His ERA ballooned over 8.60 and his FIP jumped up 2 runs as well. Coincidentally teams hit him harder last season than any season in his career (39.8% Hard Hit Percentage).

Outside of all these numbers, that opened up the door for other pitchers to take a stab at the closer role. Scott Oberg and Jairo Diaz both got save opportunities last season and finished with 5 saves each to Davis’ 15. The only reason they got those chances was because of Davis’ struggles and that likely helps to open up the door for Diaz or Oberg to take over the closer role and slide Davis into a different role.

With 19 saves at best being out there, and three guys fighting for that closer spot, it’s really hard to trust that Davis will get 10 or more saves this season even if he keeps the job.

Lines to Take:

Total Saves: Under 9.5 (-115)

Individual Player Awards Odds

Now to some of the more fun futures! These are more readily available on apps like Draftkings and FanDuel. You can bet on quite a few Rockies to win Cy Youngs and MVPs. And even Brendan Rodgers can be a potential Rookie of the Year. So let’s see where the best values are:

MVP Award Odds for Rockies Players:

Nolan Arenado

• +1600 at BetOnline.Ag
• +1800 at DraftKings
• +1700 at FanDuel

Trevor Story

• +4000 at BetOnline.Ag
• +4000 at DraftKings
• +4000 at FanDuel

Charlie Blackmon

• +10000 at DraftKings
• +8000 at FanDuel

Nolan has always been close to winning an MVP but has never been good enough to break ahead of the pack. He’ll be a perennial Top 5 choice no matter what. But in a season this short? Anything can happen and he has a serious chance. We’ve already gone over how much is going to be going on for him this season and how well he’s performed in high leverage situations. He’s been extremely consistent every year and there should be no doubts that he’s going to perform highly again this season. He also has the appeal to both new school and old school fans, giving him more of a benefit of the doubt whether you’re looking at him through traditional stats or advanced stats. So if he outperforms his norms and stays golden at the hot corner? He’s going to be hard to beat.

On the other hand, if you’re looking for a little more value then it may be worth it to throw some money down on Trevor Story. These odds of +4000 are a nice price for someone who I already thought was going to be more valuable to the Rockies in a full 2020 season. That was before the world got turned upside down, though, and things are a little bit different now. Arenado will still be the Rockies’ favorite to win MVP, but if Story’s in the conversation after 60 games then no one should be surprised.

Lines to Take:

Nolan Arenado MVP at Draftkings (+1800)
Trevor Story MVP at BetOnline/Draftkings/Fanduel (+4000)

Cy Young Award Odds for Rockies Pitchers:

German Marquez

• +4000 at BetOnline.Ag
• +6600 at DraftKings
• +5000 at FanDuel

Jon Gray

• +6600 at DraftKings
• +6500 at FanDuel

Marquez and Gray are both worthy of being in the conversation of the Cy Young Award. But we’ve seen time and time again that it’s almost too tough for a Rockies pitcher to win this award. We’ve only really had two real chances in recent history (Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 and Kyle Freeland in 2018) and both were at least mentioned as serious contenders but neither were able to eclipse their competition. You have to be too good to win this award in Colorado and a shortened season only makes that more unlikely. The odds seem appealing for a nice payday, but I wouldn’t put down much money if you’re wanting a serious payout.

Lines to Take:

None

NL Rookie of the Year Award Odds

Brendan Rodgers

• +1500 at BetOnline

So you can only bet on this on BetOnline and they don’t even have his name spelled correctly (Brendan “Rogers” if you’re wanting to bet on there). He’s got a couple of Dodgers ahead of him (Gavin Lux, Dustin May) and man, wouldn’t it be sweet to beat the Dodgers out of something for once?

Rodgers may have a tough road getting there, though. Last season in limited opportunities he didn’t do so hot before getting injured. But there’s still plenty to get excited about when it comes to his game. To get more opportunities, though, he’ll need to see McMahon take over 1B in more of a full-time role and to beat out Garrett Hampson for time at 2B (either that or Hampson needs to get more playing time in the outfield).

The odds aren’t terribly high and they’re not to the point where you can throw down a small amount and hope for a large payday, but I wouldn’t be against doing something like $10 to turn it into $150. If Rodgers gets the playing time and performs as we’ve hoped he would then he has a realistic shot at this.

Lines to Take:

Rodgers NL ROY at BetOnline (+1500)

Rockies Team Win Totals, Playoff, Division & World Series Odds

2020 was going to be a strange year for the Rockies already. Shortening it to 60 games may honestly be a blessing because it’s either going to force them to forget everything going on and just play ball or they’re going to be out of it quick and they’ll be where a lot of people expected them to be anyways. Not many people have many expectations for the Rockies this season and understandably so, but that doesn’t mean something crazy can’t happen. After all, it’s the year 2020.

Rockies Win Totals and Odds

• 27.5 at BetOnline.Ag (Over -110, Under -120)
• 26.5 at DraftKings (Over -118, Under -106)
• 27.5 at FanDuel (Over -104, Under -118)

The oddsmakers don’t believe in the Rockies either. And based off last season’s downfalls plus this offseason’s inactivity, why would they? The Rockies need to go either 27-33 or 28-32 and they break the over. Based off my prediction earlier this year (80-82), they’ll break this over. Less games in LA from a reduced schedule only helps that assertion. There’s cause for concern with more games against the Astros and other AL West opponents the Rockies are unfamiliar with, but hopefully that unfamiliarity also pays off at Coors Field for some additional wins we wouldn’t normally get.

Based off my previous record prediction (and also having a $5 Rockies World Series bet at +22000 which I really want to hit) I think the Rockies are taking the over here.

Lines to Take

Over 26.5 Wins at DraftKings (-118)

Playoff Odds & NL West Division Odds

Odds to Make the Playoffs

• +800 Yes, -1430 No at DraftKings
• +920 Yes, -2000 No at FanDuel

Odds to Win NL West

• +3000 at DraftKings
• +3000 at FanDuel

Let’s be real for a second. It’s going to be very hard for the Rockies to win the NL West. 30-1 still seems like a decent number with someone like the Dodgers in the division. So if you’re going to take a line from anything here, you probably want to look at FanDuel’s odds to make the playoffs. I’m certainly not recommending it, but the Rockies are a lot more likely to make it as a Wild Card than they are to win the division.

Lines to Take:

None

NLCS and World Series Championship Odds

NLCS Odds

• +6600 at BetOnline.Ag
• +7000 at DraftKings
• +8000 at FanDuel

World Series Odds

• +12500 at BetOnline.Ag
• +15000 at DraftKings
• +16000 at FanDuel

The Rockies are longshots and that should come as a surprise to no one reading this article. That being said, if you’re a fan of the Rockies and want to place a bet, it really shouldn’t hurt you at all to place a small $5 or $10 bet on your team to win the World Series. Imagine you bet $10 on Fanduel for the Rockies to win the series and they pull off the improbable. That $10 will get turned into $1600! Wouldn’t that be awesome if the most unimaginable thing happened and it meant you pulled in over a grand with little to no effort at all? This is more of a “why not?” bet than anything. Besides, it’s the year 2020. In the year of “Oh my god, no way that actually is happening now,” would the Rockies winning the World Series honestly be the weirdest thing to happen?

Lines to Take:

Colorado Rockies World Series Champions at Fanduel (+16000)

The Sabermetric Skeptic 2020 Colorado Rockies LOCKS

I’ve gotta admit, I almost called this the “Sabermetric Skeptic Colorado LOCKies,” but as our local friend Eric Cartman would say, that’s just “not coo.”

We’ve reviewed a ton of lines. You’re not going to take all of these and I wouldn’t expect you to or want you to. So below are the lines I am significantly more confident in and if you’re going to use my recommendations to place bets, you should use these. Let’s get it:

• Charlie Blackmon – Over 9.5 HRs (-115)
  • BetOnline.Ag
• Daniel Murphy – Below .299 Batting Average (-115)
  • BetOnline.Ag
• Nolan Arenado – Over 12.5 HRs (-115)
  • BetOnline.Ag
• Ryan McMahon – Over 6.5 HRs (-115)
  • BetOnline.Ag
  • This is the one I feel strongest about
• Trevor Story – Over 12.5 HRs (-115)
  • BetOnline.Ag
• Colorado Rockies – Over 26.5 Wins (-118)
  • DraftKings

With all that said, good luck this season! Here’s to hoping the Rockies hit on a majority of these lines and that 2020 ends up being a memorable year for all the right reasons.

As a note, these opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of Rox Pile or FanSided. When it comes to gambling, know when to stop before you start. If you think you might have a gambling problem, call (800) 522-4700.