Colorado Rockies: 15 players to protect in a hypothetical expansion draft

It has nearly a quarter of a century since MLB has added expansion teams. If it were to come in the near future, which 15 Colorado Rockies would you protect to avoid an expansion draft?

In the last year or so, Major League Baseball has been looking at some possible cities for expansion teams. Recently, MLB Trade Rumors has been doing a series on which 15 players each franchise would be most likely to protect from an expansion draft and they have yet to reach the Colorado Rockies. Additionally, our colleagues at Friars on Base looked into which 15 Padres they would protect in an expansion draft as well.

Before diving into which 15 Rockies we would protect, let’s look back on the history of recent expansion draft rules, including why it would likely be 15 Rockies protected.

In the most recent drafts, each MLB team was allowed to protect 15 players in their entire organization from being drafted from the expansion teams. In both of those expansions, there were only two expansion teams but earlier drafts have had instances of four new teams (e.g. 1968) and even some had redrafts because the expansion’s teams rosters were so bad (e.g. the 1961 draft for the Mets and Colt .45s, later known as the Astros, had a second phase in 1963 because of this).

In 1997, when the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks were added, here were the rules that had to be followed.

• For the first round, 15 players from the rosters of their entire organization
• Each team could add three more players to its protected list after each round (there were only a total of three rounds)
• No team could lose more than one player in a given round.
• All players in an organization were eligible to be drafted with two exceptions
  1. Those with no prior major-league experience who had less than three years of minor league service if signed at age 19 or older
  2. Those with less than four years of service if signed at age 18 or younger.
• Players who were free agents after the end of the 1997 season need not be protected.

Let’s dive into the 15 players we were to protect if an expansion draft were to be held today.

The infield has some guys that the Colorado Rockies would want to protect.

1. Trevor Story

Story is a young player who is fairly inexpensive and he’s arguably the best shortstop in all of baseball. MLB Network’s The Shredder had him at the top of their list for the “Top 10 Shortstops Right Now” entering 2020.

Need I say more?

2. Brendan Rodgers

He’s the Rockies top prospect and he should be healthy in 2020 since Bud Black exclusively told us a few days ago that he is “ready to go” after recovering from injuries.

In the case the Rockies were to lose Story or Nolan Arenado free agency or via trade in the next few seasons, Rodgers will have a more defined spot in the infield.

3. Ryan McMahon

The Rockies are really high on McMahon and it’s easy to see why. He’s a likable, grounded guy  who is one of the biggest presences in the Rockies clubhouse with a great swing and he’s versatile.

Arenado leaves? He can play third. Daniel Murphy leaves after 2020? He can play first and Rodgers can play second. Or he can continue to play second base every day.

If he develops into the player the Rockies have seen glimpses of and believe he can be, he’ll be an All-Star a decent amount of times in his career and the Rockies still have four years of control before he becomes a free agent.

A super-utility guy that could breakout and the Rockies best asset: their starting pitching.

7. Garrett Hampson

Hampson struggled some in the first half of 2019 but he played really well in the final six weeks or so, partially due to some changes to his swing.

He’s young, fast, and versatile. He could be huge factor for the Rockies in 2020 and beyond just for those but especially if he keeps up at the plate. Watch out.

8. Kyle Freeland

While he struggled in 2019, if Freeland can be anywhere close to the pitcher that he was in 2018 for the Rockies in 2020 and beyond, he’s going to be somebody you want in your starting rotation.

2.85 ERA in 202 1/3 regular-season innings and coming in 4th in the NL Cy Young race paints the picture of what he could be for the Rockies so even if he can post a 3.85 ERA in 200+ innings, the Rockies would take that in a heartbeat.

9. Jon Gray

Gray struggled a bit in 2018 (and was the victim of some bad luck) but he had an excellent 2019 campaign before suffering a season-ending injury in late August.

In 2017 and 2019, he pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in 150 or more innings of work so if he can remain healthy, he’s another guy you want in your rotation.

Another starter and the Rockies best two relievers in 2019.

10. German Marquez

Along with Freeland and Gray, if Marquez can pitch like he’s capable of, the trio makes the Rockies starting rotation one of the team’s best strengths.

He regressed a bit in 2019 but he also suffered from nagging injuries too. In 2018, he pitched to a 3.76 ERA in 196 innings.

11. Scott Oberg

Since the start of the 2018 season, Oberg has appeared in 105 games and pitched to a 2.35 ERA.

The Rockies just signed Oberg to a three-year extension worth $13 million so he’s still very affordable for the Rockies. He’s getting paid a lot less than some other relievers and he’s the best reliever the Rockies have right now.

12. Carlos Estevez

Estevez can be one of the Rockies most electric pitchers and in 2019, he and Oberg were the Rockies best relievers.

3.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio, a fastball that can reach 100 MPH, and a 3.75 ERA in 71 appearances means that the Rockies would have to protect him.

There’s a few young guys that would need to be protected too.

13.  Peter Lambert

Lambert struggled some in his freshman season in the majors in 2019 but the Rockies were a bit thin on the pitching front due to some injuries and struggles of others.

However, Lambert has been one of the Rockies’ top three prospects in recent years, and considering that he just turned 23, he has plenty of time to develop either in Albuquerque or in the majors.

14. Ben Bowden

He’s one of the Rockies top prospects entering 2020 and he has already played some at the Triple-A level.

He struggled after the promotion but he pitched really well at Hartford and the Rockies need relievers, and left-handed relievers in particular.

He’ll likely make his MLB debut in either 2020 or 2021 so the Rockies would protect him from the expansion draft.

15. Colton Welker

Welker is a bit closer to the major leagues that Vilade so he may be of more help in the near future for the Rockies infield.

He’s the Rockies third-best prospect heading into 2020 via MLB.com and he’s the 10th best third base prospect out there so if the Rockies wouldn’t protect him, he might be picked up by another team.

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You may have thought I forgot about the Rockies’ best player. But I didn’t.

Notable Omissions

The biggest omission here that you’re probably thinking of is Nolan Arenado.

Think about it. How many expansion teams are going to draft a player that is making $35 million for the next two years when they aren’t going to contend anyways?

Sure, there is the possibility that the expansion team could draft him and then flip him to another team. But what if they can’t trade him? They might not get much anyways because he, technically, only has two years of control at this moment. In the event an actual expansion draft happens this year for teams to start in 2021 (highly unlikely), Arenado would have one year of control at $35 million for the season. Also, he has a full no-trade clause so he would have to approve of a trade.

For the Rockies, they would have $35 million a season to sign in free agents or extend Trevor Story (or someone else). It would be risky but, depending on the market of the expansion teams and the owners, it would be something to consider.

Other players with huge contracts wouldn’t be picked up by the teams either, like Wade Davis, Ian Desmond, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, or Charlie Blackmon.

Otherwise, the biggest omissions would be a Rockies catcher. However, considering that only player could leave the Rockies via the draft each round, if Tony Wolters and Dom Nunez (I doubt Elias Diaz or Drew Butera would be drafted) were to be taken, the Rockies can use one of their three more protections on the other catcher for the next round.

Most of the other top prospects aren’t close to the MLB level either so they likely wouldn’t be drafted (at least in the MLB portion). The ones that are top prospects would be protected anyway because they wouldn’t meet the MiLB service threshold (e.g. Ryan Rolison).

Let us know what you think of our picks on Twitter @RoxPileFS.