How the Colorado Rockies would actually perform in a season at a neutral site

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 20: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates with Trevor Story #27 after Arenado's two-run home run off of Alex Young of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. Arenado was playing in his 1,000th MLB game. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 20: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates with Trevor Story #27 after Arenado's two-run home run off of Alex Young of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. Arenado was playing in his 1,000th MLB game. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /
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Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 16: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies hits an eighth inning solo homer against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on August 16, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Here’s how we’re going to figure out how some of the Rockies’ superstars new stat lines would look at a neutral site:

We’ll take that six-point wRC+ increase, apply it to our selected Rockies player’s 2019 wRC+, and find a like player from recent years whose wRC+ matches that (or is close) and has a similar approach at the plate (using things like K% and BB%).

Nolan Arenado 

2019 Stats:

  • .315/.379/.583 Slash Line
  • .962 OPS
  • 41 HR
  • 128 wRC+
  • 9.4 percent BB rate
  • 14.0 percent K rate

Applying the six-point increase to wRC+ gives Nolan a new wRC+ of 134. Based on that, his best comparison is 2016 Ryan Braun, whose stat line reads as follows:

  • .305/.365/.538 Slash Line
  • .903 OPS
  • 30 HR
  • 134 wRC+
  • 8.2 percent BB rate
  • 17.4 percent K rate

Charlie Blackmon

2019 Stats:

  • .314/.364/.576 Slash Line
  • .940 OPS
  • 32 HR
  • 125 wRC+
  • 6.3 percent BB rate
  • 16.4 percent K rate

This would give Blackmon a new wRC+ of 131 after the six-point boost. This makes his best comparison 2019 Justin Turner:

  • .290/.372/.509 Slash Line
  • .881 OPS
  • 27 HR
  • 132 wRC+
  • 9.3 percent BB rate
  • 16.0 percent K rate

Trevor Story

2019 Stats:

  • .294/.363/.554 Slash Line
  • .917 OPS
  • 35 HR
  • 121 wRC+
  • 8.8 percent BB rate
  • 26.5 percent K rate

Story’s new wRC+ would be 127 at a neutral site. This makes his best comparison 2017 Domingo Santana:

  • .278/.371/.505 Slash Line
  • .875 OPS
  • 30 HR
  • 127 wRC+
  • 12.0 percent BB rate
  • 29.3 percent K rate
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