How the Colorado Rockies would actually perform in a season at a neutral site

What we’re going to do with our newfound Rockies’ neutral OPS of .732 is find some comparisons to help us determine what a likely wRC+ would be.

With a slash line of .256/.311/.421, the most direct comparison from recent years is the 2014 Baltimore Orioles who posted a slash line of .256/.311/.422. That team’s wRC+ was 104, meaning they were about four percent better than league average offensively, and the Orioles went 96-66 on their way to an ALCS appearance against the Kansas City Royals. Park Factors change over time, though, so while that that 104 wRC+ could certainly be a possibility, it probably isn’t all that likely for the Rockies in the year 2020 (you can thank the juiced balls from recent years for making this less likely).

Instead, let’s find a team with a very neutral park factor that’s more recent with a very similar OPS. Lucky for us, an extremely comparable team is right there: the Toronto Blue Jays.

In 2019, the Blue Jays posted an OPS of .733 which led to a wRC+ of 92. According to Park Factors listed on FanGraphs, the Park Factor of the Rogers Centre is 100. That means it’s the exact definition of neutral (anything above 100 is a hitter’s park, anything below 100 is a pitcher’s park).  As well, the AL East has a decent mixture of hitter’s parks (Fenway at 105 and Camden Yards at 102), neutral parks (Yankee Stadium and Rogers Centre both at 100), and a more extreme pitcher’s park (Tropicana Field at 96). Their OPS isn’t going to be skewed too greatly one way or another, therefore their wRC+ should be fairly reliable for us.

For reference, the Park Factor for Coors Field is 115, easily the highest in the majors.

A wRC+ of 92 would be an increase of the Rockies’ offensive productivity by about six percent. For a team that hasn’t posted up a wRC+ above 88 over the last three seasons (88, 88, and 86 from 2017-2019), that would be a welcome increase.