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How the Colorado Rockies would actually perform in a season at a neutral site

By Kevin Larson

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 20: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates with Trevor Story #27 after Arenado's two-run home run off of Alex Young of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. Arenado was playing in his 1,000th MLB game. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 20: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates with Trevor Story #27 after Arenado's two-run home run off of Alex Young of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. Arenado was playing in his 1,000th MLB game. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /
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Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 14: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies smiles as he runs the bases after hitting a ninth inning walk off two-run homer against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on August 14, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

In those 1,400 plate appearances, get a decent mix of games at more neutral parks (Miller Park and Chase Field) along with some more extreme pitcher’s parks (Petco Park, Marlins Stadium, Tropicana Field, Minute Maid Ballpark). And the Rockies’ wRC+ varies too from multiple series where they just crushed it (149 and 138 vs the Brewers in 2013 and 2015 plus 137 vs the D’Backs in 2016). Unfortunately, we have a major drop-off from that horrendous start in 2019 (23 vs the Marlins and Rays). So, the results should be fairly balanced when everything’s lumped together.

Here’s how the Rockies slash line looks in these games:

  • BA: .256
  • OBP: .311
  • SLG%: .421

That gives us a team OPS of .732 while the Rockies’ 2019 OPS was .782 (slash line of .265/.326/.456). By traditional stats, that seems like a decent drop, but this is also why park-adjusted stats are so important. That OPS of .782 gave the Rockies a wRC+ of 86 last season while the Cubs, who posted an OPS only 1 point higher at .783, had a wRC+ of 102.

So what does that OPS of .732 really mean?

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