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How the Colorado Rockies would actually perform in a season at a neutral site

By Kevin Larson

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 20: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates with Trevor Story #27 after Arenado's two-run home run off of Alex Young of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. Arenado was playing in his 1,000th MLB game. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 20: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates with Trevor Story #27 after Arenado's two-run home run off of Alex Young of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. Arenado was playing in his 1,000th MLB game. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /
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Raimel Tapia of the Colorado Rockies
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – AUGUST 21: Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies singles in the first inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 21, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

In the past 10 years, there’s one thing I’ve learned about the Rockies: They love starting the season against the Brewers. Is it a contractual obligation that we didn’t know about? I assume so.

Of the nine seasons that have opened up on the road (2011 started at home), four of them started at Miller Park. Lucky for me and this article, Miller Park has a fairly neutral Park Factor (101 per Fangraphs). Below are the opponents the Rockies played in each respective season and how many games it was prior to their home opener at Coors:

  • 2010: Milwaukee Brewers, 3 games
  • 2011: Started the season at home vs the D’Backs
  • 2012: Houston Astros, 3 games
  • 2013: Milwaukee Brewers, 3 games
  • 2014: Miami Marlins, 4 games
  • 2015: Milwaukee Brewers, 3 games
  • 2016: Arizona D’Backs, 3 games
  • 2017: Milwaukee Brewers, 4 games
  • 2018: Arizona D’Backs and San Diego Padres, 7 games
  • 2019: Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, 7 games

In total, we have data from 37 games (the Brewers represent about a third of those games). That’s not the largest sample size, but if we go back further we run the risk of pulling data from a different era, therefore hindering the relevance of the results. However, this gets us a little over 1,400 plate appearances.

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