Colorado Rockies: Is the 2020 lineup as empty as the offseason has been?

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CLEVELAND, OHIO – JULY 09: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies and the National League July 09, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

The Colorado Rockies 2020 lineup outside of the Big 4 looks as exciting as their offseason approach.

We’re going to dive deep into the analytics into the 2020 Colorado Rockies’ opening-day lineup outside of the four 2019 All-Stars (Story, Arenado, Dahl, and Blackmon). We will from here on out refer to these players as “The Quartet”.

We are going to focus on offensive output only, defensive prowess or value will not be included in the equation as we will save that discussion for another time.

This is your projected 2020 Colorado Rockies Opening-Day Lineup per RotoChamp:

Once you get to the 5 spot everything is a question mark. Outside of The Quartet, the best OPS+ belongs to the much-maligned Ian Desmond at 88. 100 being an everyday average starter. This means the best hitter outside of the 4 All-Stars was 12 percent worse than just a base salary replacement.

Yet, the Rockies paid him $15 MM to put in that “performance,” according to Spotrac.com. Per Baseball-Reference, only Ryan McMahon had a higher oWAR than Peter Lambert, the pitcher, with all of 34 plate appearances. In case you needed help figuring out, it is abysmal.

DENVER – APRIL 4: Coors Field on April 4, 2005 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images). /

Everyone wanted to jump on the 2019 bullpen and starting rotation (with plenty of merits). But I would like to conjecture that the offensive decline had just as much to do with it. There have been Rocktober’s built on a makeshift rotation when coupled with a high-powered offense/top tier defense.

Playing half your games at Coors Field should never leave you with offensive rankings like this:

2018;

OPS: 6th
OPS+: 26th
BA: 6th
SLG: 5th
HR: 8th
SO%: 23rd
HR%: 3rd

2019;

OPS: 9th
OPS+: 26th
BA: 6th
SLG: 6th
HR: 15th
SO%: 26th
HR%: 9th

As you can see, the 2019 Colorado Rockies lineup was worse in every meaningful statistic when compared to 2018. But to me, the most telling is the drop in Home Run percentage from 3rd in all of baseball in 2018 all the way down to 9th.

This coupled with a 1.3% spike in strikeout percentage doomed this team regardless of who was on the mound. This may not sound like much, but the change in K% from 2018 (22.6%) to 2019 (23.9%) is a difference of 106 strikeouts. They did hit 15 more home runs in 2019 than 2018 improving their HR percentage by 0.2 percent.

The problem is so did EVERY other team as has been well documented (0.2% is actually tied for the least amount of improvement by any team from 2018 to 2019).

So during a year where every single power record was set other than the single-season HR record, in a park that is a mile above sea-level, their power numbers regressed, while simultaneously hacking at air more often, led to a margin for error a below-average and injury-riddled pitching staff could not overcome.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 10: Ryan McMahon #24 of the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Ryan McMahon, again the most valuable hitter outside of The Quartet, led ALL of baseball in strikeout percentage in 2019 at 29.7 percent with Trevor Story joining him in the bottom 5 at 26.5 percent.

The “highest” ranked Rockie in 2018 per strikeout rate was Trevor Story at 5th worst in the league at 25.6 percent. In 2018, there were only 3 players above league average in strikeout percentage. In 2019 that total almost doubled to 5 players.

This all points to a lack of discipline, which lends itself to poor coaching/team pressing under high-expectations. Rockies manager Bud Black said that hitting coaches Dave Magadan and Jeff Salazar will be and have been working on fixing the discipline issue during spring training three weeks ago, as we discussed in this article.

This is why I believe Dick Monfort, Jeff Bridich, and company are banking on a bounce-back/leap forward season from half of the every-day lineup. The problem is, you are usually lucky to have 1 or 2 players regain previously lost form. On an entire roster, let alone a solitary lineup.

If you have not heard or read Dick Monfort’s reasoning behind his 94-win prediction, you should read it here.

As stated in that article, you cannot compare 2020 Rockies, to the 2009 Rockies, as the 2009 Rockies were extremely active with trades and value signings. In case you have been under a rock or hibernating, the 2020 Colorado Rockies have done bupkis. I will give you the positive that a Monfort said “Analytics Team” in a sentence without choking. There is absolutely no way anyone that knows 2+2=4 was on that “team.”

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 29: Sam Hilliard #43 of the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 29, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. Colorado won 4-3 in 13 innings. (Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images) /

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Now I am not here to just destroy our beloved Rockies. I am also here to show some silver linings.

The brightest of them is Sam Hilliard, he has the ability to have the same type of overall impact Carlos Gonzalez had on the 2009 Rockies lineup as the key piece of the Matt Holliday trade that offseason. Albeit in a small sample size (87 plate appearances), Hilliard slashed .273/.356/.649/1.006, leading the team with a 136 OPS+.

During his cup of coffee late in the year, Hilliard was first or second in every major advanced offensive metric per Baseball-Reference. If Bud Black goes against his tendencies and replaces Ian Desmond with Sam Hilliard, and Hilliard replicates this type of production, you have an upgrade in OPS+ of 48 points.

Last year was also essentially Ryan McMahon’s rookie season. If he can make a similar year two jump akin to Nolan Arenado (a jump from 81 OPS+ to 115) you would add 2 more All-Star level hitters to this lineup.

Couple that with Daniel Murphy returning to his career norms of a 115 OPS+, you would have one of the deepest lineups in baseball. Again though, that is A LOT of “if’s”. In a 162-game season, with so much randomness mixed in those 6 months, standing pat and assuming major improvement from half of your everyday starters is asinine.

Yet here we stand, even with the added time to sort things out as the COVID-19 virus has put the sports world on hold, in the same place they ended 2019 at 71-91. In case you wonder why there was no mention of Tony Wolters, his 64 OPS+ and 0.1 oWAR truly do not deserve mention, especially in hopes of a positive value at the plate.

Next. Current betting line on baseball returning before June 1. dark

So even though there is the hope of a turnaround in 2020 for this lineup, if you are a betting man, don’t. There are more warts festering in this lineup than the entirety of Hocus Pocus. Who wants to bet on that sequel?

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The Colorado Rockies 2020 lineup outside of the Big 4 looks as exciting as their offseason approach.

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