Is Todd Helton the next Colorado Rockies Hall of Famer?

“Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

–Bill James, The 2019 Bill James Handbook

Larry Walker may have been the Rockies first Gold Glover, MVP, and now first Hall of Famer, but he’s not the guy at the top of all of the Colorado Rockies franchise leaderboards. That honor, of course, belongs to Todd Helton, who leads the franchise in hits, runs, RBI, doubles, homers, and total WAR.

Helton had some truly eye-popping seasons (just take a moment to drool over his numbers in 2000), a lengthy 17-year career, and he captained the franchise to their first (and still only) World Series appearance. Despite his achievements, the fact that Helton played in Coors Field at the height of the Steroid Era led to his receiving only 16.5% of the vote in his first year of Hall eligibility in 2019.

Helton jumped to 29.2% of the vote this year which, of course, also saw the first election of any player to have played a majority of their seasons in Colorado. So now that the Rox have one HoFer, what are the chances of them adding another any time soon? Did this year prove that the voters can get over their anti-Coors field bias, or will they go right back to discounting the numbers of anyone that played half their games in altitude? Simply put: Will Todd Helton ever make the Hall of Fame?

The Basic Case

Let’s start with just the basics. Helton is a five-time All-Star with three Gold Gloves and four Silver Slugger awards. He never won an MVP, though one could make the case that he deserved to in 2000 when he led the league in WAR (as well as hits, RBI, and all three triple slash categories). That year he finished fifth for some reason that does not in any way involve a bias against Coors Field. Despite that non-existent bias, Helton still has three top 10 MVP finishes and six top-twenty finishes.

In terms of raw numbers, Helton has 2,519 hits (98th all-time), 592 doubles (19th), and 369 home runs (81st) – good for 40th in total extra bases. He scored and knocked in a surprisingly similar number of runs, 1401 (97th) and 1406 (77th), respectively. These ranks are all very good when you consider that there are 333 players currently in the Hall (and nearly 20,000 that aren’t), but only the doubles really stand out as historically exceptional.

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Helton owns a stellar-looking career slash line of .316/.414/.539, good for a .953 OPS (18th all-time) and 133 OPS+ (147th all-time). While the slash line is certainly bolstered by Coors Field, as well as the generally offensive-happy era that he played in, OPS+ accounts for park factors and relative eras. Other Hall of Famers with a career OPS+ of 133 include Earl Averill, Orlando Cepeda, Fred Clarke, Chick Hafey, Al Simmons and Sweet Swingin’ Billy Williams.

Just below Helton with career OPS+ of 132 are Hall of Famers Tony Gwynn, Joe Morgan, and Jackie Robinson (as well as former teammate Matt Holliday), followed by Wade Boggs, Rod Carew and Roberto Clemente. Again, with both Coors Field and the era taken into account, Helton still performed relative to the league at the same level or above as those luminary names above him.

In terms of WAR, which also factors in the Coors effect, Helton’s 61.2 is about average for a Hall of Famer. The average WAR of the 21 first basemen that are in the hall is 66.9 and the median is Willie McCovey’s 64.5. Everyone above Helton is either in the Hall, still active (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera), or connected to steroids (Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire).

All of this alone is enough to make Helton a borderline case, however we haven’t even gotten to Helton’s two true superpowers yet: his defense and his patience at the plate.

Superpower #2: Defense

Helton’s 369 homers are the fewest for a Hall of Fame first basemen in over half a century, and that has undoubtedly hurt his case. What voters ignore about Helton are all of the other less-flashy ways that he excelled, including his sterling defensive work. Unfortunately, no one seems to care about great defense at first the way they do at other positions, especially the awards voters of the late ’90s and early 2000s (remember the Rafael Palmeiro incident of 1999?).

Helton has three Gold Gloves, which isn’t too shabby, but that almost seems to devalue the length of the career that Helton had at first. When you really look at his numbers it starts to become clear that Helton wasn’t just good or even great, he was one of the greatest defensive first basemen in history.

The Toddfather is second all-time among first basemen in Total Zone Runs, behind only Keith Hernandez (who knows a thing or two about the Hall overlooking defense at first). Helton’s 47th all-time amongst all positions, which isn’t just impressive for a first baseman, it’s better than the vast majority of all Hall of Famers regardless of position.

Helton is fifth in games played at first, second all-time in assists by a first baseman, and fifteenth in putouts. He led the league in double plays turned at first six times, was top-five eleven times, and ranks third all-time in double plays at first. He’s also got a .996 fielding percentage at first, good for eighth all-time, and has thirteen top-5 seasons in range factor for a first baseman.

These are some incredible long term feats that clearly have nothing to do with the Coors factor. While the offensive side of Helton’s game peaked early then leveled off, his defense stayed elite throughout his entire career. It doesn’t matter if it’s offense or defense, baseball’s history is so long that if you’re in the top two or three in any stat category then you probably belong in the Hall.

Conclusion

It’s easy to write off Todd Helton because he played in Coors Field in an offensive happy environment. HoF voters can downplay his gaudy numbers as an illusion created by a unique home ballpark or, more cynically, a product of performance-enhancing drugs.

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Helton never failed any kind of drug test, nor is he known to be named in the Mitchell Report. The only whiff of impropriety comes from internet wags that don’t like the look of his career arc and the since-retracted comments of a former broadcaster. It is unfair to punish him because of the general taint of the era.

The best players from all eras need to be recognized, and Helton is most certainly one of the best of his time. His overall numbers stack up favorably with other Hall of Famers, and he has some areas where his performance was truly exemplary (second in first base assists!).

The jump in his voting results from 2019 to 2020 seems to be cause for optimism in Helton’s case. Walker hovered between 10.2% and 22.9% during his first seven years of eligibility before increasing to 34.1% in 2018, 54.6% in 2019, and finally 76.6% in 2020.

Hopefully this represents a sea change in the way that career Rockies are viewed by the voting committee. As younger, more analytics-driven voters enter the pool it becomes easier for them to contextualize the actual effects of unique ballparks and eras. Perhaps in time, the establishment will recognize what an important player Helton was, both to his team and to baseball at large.

The Hall of Fame voting committee got it wrong the first two times. Fortunately, they have eight more chances to get it right.