Is Todd Helton the next Colorado Rockies Hall of Famer?

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“Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

–Bill James, The 2019 Bill James Handbook

Larry Walker may have been the Rockies first Gold Glover, MVP, and now first Hall of Famer, but he’s not the guy at the top of all of the Colorado Rockies franchise leaderboards. That honor, of course, belongs to Todd Helton, who leads the franchise in hits, runs, RBI, doubles, homers, and total WAR.

Helton had some truly eye-popping seasons (just take a moment to drool over his numbers in 2000), a lengthy 17-year career, and he captained the franchise to their first (and still only) World Series appearance. Despite his achievements, the fact that Helton played in Coors Field at the height of the Steroid Era led to his receiving only 16.5% of the vote in his first year of Hall eligibility in 2019.

Helton jumped to 29.2% of the vote this year which, of course, also saw the first election of any player to have played a majority of their seasons in Colorado. So now that the Rox have one HoFer, what are the chances of them adding another any time soon? Did this year prove that the voters can get over their anti-Coors field bias, or will they go right back to discounting the numbers of anyone that played half their games in altitude? Simply put: Will Todd Helton ever make the Hall of Fame?

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 18: Todd Helton #17 of the Colorado Rockies slides across home plate to score from second base in the sixth inning of a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Coors Field on September 18, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

The Basic Case

Let’s start with just the basics. Helton is a five-time All-Star with three Gold Gloves and four Silver Slugger awards. He never won an MVP, though one could make the case that he deserved to in 2000 when he led the league in WAR (as well as hits, RBI, and all three triple slash categories). That year he finished fifth for some reason that does not in any way involve a bias against Coors Field. Despite that non-existent bias, Helton still has three top 10 MVP finishes and six top-twenty finishes.

In terms of raw numbers, Helton has 2,519 hits (98th all-time), 592 doubles (19th), and 369 home runs (81st) – good for 40th in total extra bases. He scored and knocked in a surprisingly similar number of runs, 1401 (97th) and 1406 (77th), respectively. These ranks are all very good when you consider that there are 333 players currently in the Hall (and nearly 20,000 that aren’t), but only the doubles really stand out as historically exceptional.

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Helton owns a stellar-looking career slash line of .316/.414/.539, good for a .953 OPS (18th all-time) and 133 OPS+ (147th all-time). While the slash line is certainly bolstered by Coors Field, as well as the generally offensive-happy era that he played in, OPS+ accounts for park factors and relative eras. Other Hall of Famers with a career OPS+ of 133 include Earl Averill, Orlando Cepeda, Fred Clarke, Chick Hafey, Al Simmons and Sweet Swingin’ Billy Williams.

Just below Helton with career OPS+ of 132 are Hall of Famers Tony Gwynn, Joe Morgan, and Jackie Robinson (as well as former teammate Matt Holliday), followed by Wade Boggs, Rod Carew and Roberto Clemente. Again, with both Coors Field and the era taken into account, Helton still performed relative to the league at the same level or above as those luminary names above him.

In terms of WAR, which also factors in the Coors effect, Helton’s 61.2 is about average for a Hall of Famer. The average WAR of the 21 first basemen that are in the hall is 66.9 and the median is Willie McCovey’s 64.5. Everyone above Helton is either in the Hall, still active (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera), or connected to steroids (Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire).

All of this alone is enough to make Helton a borderline case, however we haven’t even gotten to Helton’s two true superpowers yet: his defense and his patience at the plate.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 30: Todd Helton #17 of the Colorado Rockies stands at first base in the ninth inning of a game against the Cincinnati Reds at Coors Field on August 30, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies beat the Reds 9-6. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Superpower #1: Patience

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The way that baseball players are evaluated now is radically different than it was during the vast majority of Helton’s career. His main offensive superpower – taking walks – is more respected by the newer generation of writers that have entered the voting pool over the last few years.

Helton finished his career with 1,335 bases on balls, good for 36th all time. This is even more impressive when compared to the fact that he only struck out 1,175 times (a mere 213th all-time). He twice led the league in OBP and finished in the top five eight times.

He led the league in total times on base three times, finished in the top six eight times, and for his career is a remarkable 55th all-time, ahead of even the majority of other Hall of Fame hitters. Of the 54 players above him on that list, 52 are either in the Hall, on the ballot, or not yet eligible.

Patience at the plate is also a skill that doesn’t receive any kind of boost from Coors Field, which has historically shown lower walk rates than other parks. This aspect of his game – and HoF case – doesn’t seem to get the attention that it deserves. Helton’s batting eye places him in truly elite historical company, yet still he’s regarded by many as simply a product of his environment.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 22: Todd Helton #17 of the Colorado Rockies looks on during a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on September 22, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Superpower #2: Defense

Helton’s 369 homers are the fewest for a Hall of Fame first basemen in over half a century, and that has undoubtedly hurt his case. What voters ignore about Helton are all of the other less-flashy ways that he excelled, including his sterling defensive work. Unfortunately, no one seems to care about great defense at first the way they do at other positions, especially the awards voters of the late ’90s and early 2000s (remember the Rafael Palmeiro incident of 1999?).

Helton has three Gold Gloves, which isn’t too shabby, but that almost seems to devalue the length of the career that Helton had at first. When you really look at his numbers it starts to become clear that Helton wasn’t just good or even great, he was one of the greatest defensive first basemen in history.

The Toddfather is second all-time among first basemen in Total Zone Runs, behind only Keith Hernandez (who knows a thing or two about the Hall overlooking defense at first). Helton’s 47th all-time amongst all positions, which isn’t just impressive for a first baseman, it’s better than the vast majority of all Hall of Famers regardless of position.

Helton is fifth in games played at first, second all-time in assists by a first baseman, and fifteenth in putouts. He led the league in double plays turned at first six times, was top-five eleven times, and ranks third all-time in double plays at first. He’s also got a .996 fielding percentage at first, good for eighth all-time, and has thirteen top-5 seasons in range factor for a first baseman.

These are some incredible long term feats that clearly have nothing to do with the Coors factor. While the offensive side of Helton’s game peaked early then leveled off, his defense stayed elite throughout his entire career. It doesn’t matter if it’s offense or defense, baseball’s history is so long that if you’re in the top two or three in any stat category then you probably belong in the Hall.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 24: Todd Helton #17 of the Colorado Rockies prepares to take the field against the Boston Red Sox at Coors Field on September 24, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images) /

Conclusion

It’s easy to write off Todd Helton because he played in Coors Field in an offensive happy environment. HoF voters can downplay his gaudy numbers as an illusion created by a unique home ballpark or, more cynically, a product of performance-enhancing drugs.