Colorado Rockies: Making sense of a Chicago Cubs-Nolan Arenado trade

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In case you thought that the Nolan Arenado trade rumors were going to slow down since we’ve heard absolutely nothing solid after Nolan’s apology note was sent to Colorado Rockies fans last week, think again.

Kris Bryant lost his grievance case against the Chicago Cubs in regards to service time and that sent the Chicago rumor mill into a whirlwind. With Bryant being a rumored trade candidate himself, and the Cubs previously being listed as a potential landing spot for Arenado, it was only a matter of time until the two were grouped together and yesterday was that day.

It started first with ESPN’s Jeff Passan saying on ESPN Radio in Chicago that the Cubs were one of the teams that Nolan would love to play for, insinuating that he’d waive his no-trade clause to leave for Chicago. Then it got turned up another notch after Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago said he’s heard rumors that the Rockies and Cubs have gone so far as to discuss a one-for-one trade of Nolan Arenado for Kris Bryant. That led to others speculating that the Rockies would need to also take on the likes of old friends Tyler Chatwood and Daniel Descalso in any trade. All after Patrick Saunders wrote in The Denver Post that his sources say that a trade before Spring Training would be highly unlikely!

What a morning!

Now the idea of trading Arenado for Bryant straight up just isn’t feasible for a number of reasons. And it likely wouldn’t happen as a one for one trade. But this did get me thinking about how a trade may look between the Rockies and the Cubs and what that may look like with these two as the centerpieces. So let’s dive into it.

WILLIAMSPORT, PENNSYLVANIA – AUGUST 18: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs walks on the field in the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the MLB Little League Classic at Bowman Field on August 18, 2019 in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Breaking Down Kris Bryant

Bryant has often been compared to Arenado over the years as one of the top options in the majors for third basemen. Bryant came scorching into the majors in 2015 posting up fWAR numbers of 6.1, 7.9 and 6.7 in his first three seasons while collecting an NL MVP and a World Series Championship in 2016. That total of 20.7 fWAR ranked him 3rd in that timeframe behind only Josh Donaldson and Mike Trout.

Then he battled some shoulder inflammation in 2018 that forced him to be put onto the IL multiple times. While still decent, he saw his numbers drop from a previous wRC+ of 144 (2015-2017) to 126 in 2018. He was only able to play in 102 games and only accumulated 2.3 fWAR because of it.

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He rebounded offensively last year and saw his wRC+ bounce back to 135 and he accumulated 4.8 fWAR in 147 games. That’s great progress but obviously short of how he performed in his first three seasons. Now what he did in those first years by average almost 7 fWAR per year is an unreasonable ask for most, but there’s still work to be done before he could potentially return to that level.

The main area of concern with Bryant is in regards to his defense. He provides a bit of versatility in terms of the positions he can play (spent time at 3B, LF, RF and a small amount of innings at 1B in 2019). But defensively he hasn’t provided the same positive value that he did in 2015 and 2016. His UZR/150 at 3B, where the Cubs primarily play him, has been a negative value in three consecutive seasons (-0.7, -4.5, -1.5). His DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) has dropped year by year as well (1, -2, -7) and his dWAR from Baseball Reference reflects similar declining production (0.4, -0.5, -1.1).

Though he’s showing a declining value by most defensive metrics, he more than makes up for it with his bat. In total, he should be expected to put up around 5+ fWAR for multiple years barring injury and FanGraphs projects he’ll put up around 4.8 fWAR in 2020.

Arenado vs. Bryant

By most measures Bryant provides more value with his bat than Arenado. He leads in wRC+ and OPS+ while Arenado tops Bryant by DRC+ (per their 2019 stats). Nolan is vastly superior with his glove, though, and makes up a ton of value in those regards.

Additionally, Nolan creeps out ahead of Bryant in a few other measures on Statcast. They’re both similar in terms of xwOBA (67th percentile for Arenado and 69th percentile for Bryant) but Arenado breaks out in front in terms of his average Exit Velocity (58th percentile) and Hard Hit Percentage (40th percentile). Bryant’s average Exit Velocity is in the 23rd percentile and his Hard Hit Percentage is in the 25th percentile.

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This would allude to the idea that with Nolan’s hitting profile that it can translate fairly easily from ballpark to ballpark and should cause less worries among potential suitors of his. This is demonstrated by the fact that he was the only Rockies hitter last season to post a road wRC+ above 100 at 118. Bryant’s profile suggests he may have been getting somewhat lucky and the 33 point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA would suggest that some luck was involved as well.

We’ve already determined that Bryant should put up around 5.0 fWAR this upcoming season with potential to surpass that number. Nolan’s fWAR number should end closer to 6.0 as he’s shown both consistency and progression over the past few seasons (5.0, 5.7, 5.7, 5.9). He’s not showing signs of slowing down either defensively or offensively, so expecting him to finish with a number close to 6.0 this season shouldn’t be out of the question. FanGraphs is lower on his projections as they’re expecting a number around 5.0, but that would be low based off the data from prior years. Bryant’s estimate of 4.8 can be low as well, but he has more questions going forward.

Why a straight up trade won’t work

In terms of the contracts, Bryant is slated to make $18.6M this season with one more year of arbitration in 2021 before he enters free agency. Arenado will make $35M this season. Per Jesse Rogers’ suggestions, the Rockies would end up picking up around $7M-$8M of Arenado’s contract meaning they’d be paying around $26.6M at most for Bryant with the Cubs paying around $27M for Arenado. While that makes the money even, there’s a huge concern:

If Arenado waived his opt out then the Cubs have Nolan for seven years while Bryant only has two years left on his contract before he’s a free agent. With Nolan appearing to currently be the better player, the Rockies would be missing out on a ton of value if Bryant leaves after two seasons and Arenado stays with the Cubs for all remaining seven years. They could potentially flip Bryant if they wanted to in a year or so, but it’s an additional layer that likely wouldn’t add up.

Willson Contreras, Catcher

Do you hear that? That’s the sound of Rockies fan salivating at the idea of having a catcher who can provide positive value at the plate.

To date, the most fWAR a catcher has accumulated with the Rockies is 4.0 from Jeff Reed from 1996-1999. It’s a dramatically sad list after that and it needs a huge uplift.

In 2019, Contreras put up an fWAR of 2.7. Outside of a bad 2018, he’s put up fWARs of 2.5 and 2.4. So if the Rockies could trade for Contreras, and he put up his average fWAR numbers then he’d be the Rockies greatest catcher ever after two seasons. Yup.

His wRC+ in 2019 was 127, a career high but in line with similar numbers from 2016 and 2017. His pop time, per Statcast, ranks in the 96th percentile while his Framing ranks dead in the middle in the 50th percentile. Both of those rank better than Wolters in 2019 (77th and 15th percentiles respectively).

Contreras would be a great primary catcher while Wolters would go back into a secondary role, which should fit him better. He caught in a career high 121 games last season (a career high by nearly 40 games) and that likely took a huge toll on him over the season (his wRC+ in the first half of the season was 76 while in the second half it dropped to 44). That reduced workload would ideally help him too.

As far as Contreras’ contract, he has two more years of arbitration left before he’s a free agent after the 2022 season. He’s making $4.5M this season and would be a more than worthy addition to the Rockies.

With him and Bryant coming over, and assuming the Rockies don’t pay any of Arenado’s salary, that would be up to $23.1M in salary for the Rockies vs the $35M that would be going on to the Cubs. But now the value coming back to the Rockies with both Bryant and Contreras would be more than what the Cubs are getting back.

So what do the Rockies need to do to make this even?

Garrett Hampson

I won’t lie, it hurts to type that up.

But the Cubs have needs at 2B and in CF, both which we know Hampson can play. The Rockies, for the most part, have that solved between McMahon at 2nd (with Rodgers in the wings) and Dahl or Hilliard in CF (not to mention the logjam that includes Desmond and Tapia, who will both be fighting for time as well). That logjam creates a bit of complication for the speedy Hampson (whose Sprint Speed ranks in the 99th percentile).

His 2019 was largely unimpressive from an offensive perspective (wRC+ of 63), but his mechanical adjustments he made in the 2nd half of the season (adding in a toe tap to his batting stance) saw his wRC+ jump from 18 in the 1st half of the season to 96 in the 2nd half (including a 119 wRC+ in September).

Defensively he’s a better fit in Center Field than he is at 2nd in terms of UZR/150 (1.6 vs -5.4). Almora Jr, the Cubs’ primary Center Fielder, showed regression in terms of UZR/150 (1.7 in 2017, 2.9 in 2018, -4.1 in 2019). If he’s not at second base, though, that does open up more time for Brendan Rodgers to get more opportunities at second.

FanGraphs projects Hampson to have a wRC+ of 76 in 2020 while putting up an fWAR of 0.2 in 75 games. That’s largely uninspiring, but it’s mostly a result of not having as much of an opportunity with the Rockies. If given more opportunity in a starting lineup while putting up similar defensive numbers and offensive production similar to his 2nd half of 2019, he could be of value to a team that could find more time to use him.

Hampson will be eligible for arbitration in 2022 and would be eligible for Free Agency in 2025. He’s slated to make $583,500 in 2020.

Would this make sense?

Let’s review here real quick.

The Cubs would get:

Nolan Arenado, 3B
Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF

The Rockies would get:

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF
Willson Contreras, C

This would have the Cubs taking on an additional $12.5M in annual salary (until Hampson is eligible for arbitration) but would likely result in more overall years of control with the assumption that Arenado waives his opt out, possibly negating the need for Colorado to pick up some of Arenado’s contract. The Rockies would get the quicker bang for your buck with both Bryant and Contreras which would fit their mentality of still trying to compete now while the Cubs play a bit of a longer game with Hampson while having a near certainty with Arenado.

Now if the Rockies have a change of heart on their direction and decide that yes, a rebuild is necessary then this framework would certainly change. However, if they’re still aiming to compete the next two seasons then a package like this would fit their needs while still giving the Cubs enough value in return to hopefully be willing to part with Bryant and Contreras.

Next. The 10 greatest Rockies of the past decade. dark

The Arenado rumors are going nowhere. This is a party that nobody wanted and Bridich is the Master of Ceremonies. But if a potential trade with the Cubs is the answer, this could be a potential solution that could solve everyone’s needs revolving around these two disgruntled stars.

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