Colorado Rockies: Would the dropoff be that bad between Nolan Arenado to Josh Donaldson?

The Nolan Arenado trade rumors just keep coming. What once appeared to be nothing more than writers reporting on teams doing their due diligence by checking in on the All-Star Third Baseman and seeing what Bridich’s appetite for trading him was has now started to heat up into a situation more realistic than many Colorado Rockies fans would like to admit.

Jon Morosi recently reported on Twitter that the chances Nolan Arenado gets dealt are 50/50. And while that number is certainly debatable, the fact remains that we can no longer view this situation as a farcical and fanatical idea being perpetuated by writers for clicks. The Colorado Rockies are hardly rumored to ever be making any moves before they’re actually made, so when there’s continuous smoke like this we shouldn’t ignore the potential fire.

In the event that Arenado does indeed get traded, one idea that was suggested by Rockies broadcaster Ryan Spilborghs on MLB Network Radio was for the Rockies to use the money they save in any Arenado deal to go after another standout third baseman: Josh Donaldson.

Bringing in Donaldson would carry some risk as he’s 34 years old (compared to Nolan at 28), so there’s a shorter shelf life on Donaldson’s potential production. However, his salary would provide some relief to the Rockies based off of the reported deals that have been put in front of Donaldson.

In 2020, Arenado is slated to make $35M. The offers sent Donaldson’s way have been rumored to be around $100M for 4 years, putting his salary at $25M per year. That additional $10M per year would likely be a welcome sight to the Rockies to spend on extensions for guys like Trevor Story. And with contracts set to potentially come of the books for Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee (all have team options for 2021), that’s a lot of potential new money the Rockies could spend in the 2021 offseason.

But any change at the hot corner is certainly going to feel like a dropoff from Arenado, whether $10M makes it feel better or not, and by a bunch of metrics, that’d be correct. But how far off would that dropoff be if the Rockies were to plug in Donaldson?

Let’s take a look.

Now, let’s compare each as a hitter. Below is each player’s wRC+/OPS+/DRC+ splits by season:

Donaldson

2016- 157/153/152
2017- 151/148/141
2018- 117/119/106
2019- 132/127/130

Arenado

2016- 126/129/128
2017- 130/130/136
2018- 132/133/138
2019- 128/129/136

This puts Donaldson’s average splits at 139/137/132 while Arenado’s sit at 129/130/135. If you exclude Donaldson’s injury-riddled 2018, he’s at 147/143/141. If we expect regression from Donaldson due to age, as we should, that would mean we’re still likely to see him put up similar production to what Arenado’s done in the lineup the past few seasons in terms of wRC+/OPS+/DRC+.

Now let’s take a look at how each player has gotten to those numbers.

Arenado ended 2019 with a BB% of 9.4% and a K% of 14.0%. These are in line with his career average numbers and they read similarly in 2016 and 2017 (2018 was higher in both BB% and K% but not tremendously off).

Donaldson ended 2019 with a BB% of 15.2% and a K% of 23.5%. Those are also fairly in line with his recent history so we shouldn’t expect much change from those numbers for either Arenado or Donaldson.

As for how each player is hitting the ball, here’s how they’ve trended. Arenado’s Hard Hit% from 2016 to 2019 was 37.9%, 36.7%, 42.9% to 42.1%. It’s reasonable to expect he’ll be around 42% again this season. He also has been consistent on his Line Drive/Groundball/Flyball splits, posting up a line of 19.3%/36.0%/44.7% in 2019 with a HR/FB% of 18.2% (slightly above his career average).

Donaldson appears to have found something in his swing in 2019 that’s causing him to hit the ball hard. His Hard Hit% from 2016 to 2019 was 40.4%, 36.3%, 41.0% to 47.5%. Assuming a similar swing this season, it’s reasonable to expect a Hard Hit% around 45%. His LD%/GB%/FB% in 2019 was pretty close to his career averages as well sitting at 21.5%/42.2%/36.4%.

Where Donaldson really starts to distance himself is how often he barrels the ball. According to Statcast, in 2019 Donaldson averaged a Barrel per PA of 9.4%. That ranked 17th overall in the majors. Arenado’s Barrel per PA% sat at 6.0%, which ranks 146th. In terms of Expected Stats, Donaldson’s xwOBA in 2019 was .387, good enough for 19th in the majors. Arenado’s was .344, ranking him 101st.

With Donaldson trending in the right direction in terms of expected stats, while still putting up very solid numbers in his park factored stats, he’d actually be a small improvement to the lineup in a holistic perspective if he were to replace Arenado. At the very least, we could expect similar production to what we’re currently getting from Arenado, just on a shorter timeline given Donaldson’s age.

Now let’s focus on fielding. It’s what sets apart Nolan from the rest of the Third Basemen in the MLB and would undoubtedly be the area where the Rockies would most miss him.

In terms of DRS, Nolan has accumulated 53 DRS from 2016 to 2019. That ranks 2nd in the MLB. Donaldson actually ranks 3rd in that same time span, though his DRS only totals to 21.

By UZR, Nolan ranks 3rd at 26.1. Donaldson ranks 7th at 6.6.

And by Fangraphs’ DEF (Defensive Runs Above Average), Arenado and Donaldson again rank 3rd and 7th with 35.3 and 13.0 respectively.

The biggest thing about Nolan’s fielding, though, is all the flashy plays he makes on seemingly impossible opportunities. This is captured fairly well in Fangraphs’ Inside Edge Fielding metrics, which quite simply measure the percentage of balls fielded by each fielder that are deemed Routine Plays (90-100% likelihood of fielding the batted ball), Likely Plays (60-90%), Even Plays (40-60%), Unlikely Plays (10-40%) and Remote Plays (1-10%).

From 2016-2019, Nolan has made 11% of all Remote Plays. That ranks 2nd among qualified fielders in the MLB behind Matt Chapman (who’s played 2,000 less innings at 3B than Nolan in that time span). The next closest to Nolan is Anthony Rendon at 4.7%. Donaldson ranks 6th overall at 2.6%.

This is going to be the area where Nolan’s absence would be noticed the most. In 2016, 2017 and 2019 (excluding Donaldson’s injured season) Arenado accumulated 5.8 dWAR per Baseball Reference. Donaldson accumulated 2.6 dWAR.

So would the dropoff be all that bad? In my opinion, no. It may not even be all that noticeable should it happen. And in all actuality, it may be worth it if trading Arenado is the only option that Bridich is left with.

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On the defensive end, we’d simply be brought back to the norm that most of the other MLB franchises are stuck at. Offensively, we may even see improved production. Not for as long as we’d experience it from Arenado, but it’d improve things in the short term. And if the Rockies bring in Donaldson and they’re not competitive next season? Then hey, maybe Donaldson can be a trade candidate that would still garner a fairly worthy return.

As for how feasible this scenario actually is depends on how the rest of the 3rd base market shakes out. While the Braves currently make the most sense for an Arenado trade, it may not make much sense for them to sell the farm to the Rockies and take on Arenado’s salary when they already passed on Anthony Rendon (whose AAV is extremely similar to Nolan’s). Their best move may simply be to bring back Donaldson at the 4 year, $100M offer that’s been rumored to have been put in front of Donaldson.

And if the Rockies do trade Arenado to the Braves, would they want to have Donaldson be part of a sign-and-trade to ensure they’re getting Donaldson? Or would they want to change the direction they’re going in and aim for a full blown rebuild? Bringing in Donaldson would signify that you still think you’re competitive (and by all signs the Rockies still believe they’ll be competitive in 2020).

A ton of factors are still in play to even make this a reasonable scenario, but it’s one that the Rockies should entertain if trading Arenado is the only option they have left.