Colorado Rockies: Would the dropoff be that bad between Nolan Arenado to Josh Donaldson?

The first thing to consider is going to be how each looks in terms of their fWAR/bWAR/WARP splits. Here’s how each has performed the past four seasons:

Donaldson

2016- 7.6/7.6/6.0
2017- 5.1/5.0/3.8
2018- 1.3/1.2/0.6
2019- 4.9/6.1/5.1

Arenado

2016- 5.0/6.6/7.1
2017- 5.7/7.1/6.0
2018- 5.7/5.6/6.2
2019- 5.9/5.7/7.1

Donaldson was dealing with shoulder and calf injuries in 2018 when the Blue Jays traded him to the Indians, so those WAR numbers from that season need to be taken with a grain of salt. He also faced some injury issues in 2017 with the same calf issue that ailed him in 2018, so his numbers are a little lower than they could have been due to that as well as he only played in 113 games that season.

Another way we can look at it is seeing how much WAR Donaldson would have accumulated if he had gotten the same amount of Plate Appearances as Nolan has had in the past four seasons.

Nolan had 2,711 PAs from 2016-2019 while Donaldson had 2,074. If we look strictly at fWAR, Nolan accumulated 22.4 fWAR in those four seasons while Donaldson accumulated 18.9.

If we assume he would’ve gotten the same amount of PAs as Nolan, his total fWAR would’ve been 24.7, meaning he was slightly more efficient than Nolan the past four seasons.

At the very least, he’s produced pretty similarly to Nolan the past four seasons when he’s been available. I don’t expect that he’d outpace Nolan going forward due to his age, but he would still likely produce at a level that would still make him an upper echelon third baseman (probably within the 4-5 WAR range, which would be more than acceptable on this roster).

Now, let’s compare each as a hitter. Below is each player’s wRC+/OPS+/DRC+ splits by season:

Donaldson

2016- 157/153/152
2017- 151/148/141
2018- 117/119/106
2019- 132/127/130

Arenado

2016- 126/129/128
2017- 130/130/136
2018- 132/133/138
2019- 128/129/136

This puts Donaldson’s average splits at 139/137/132 while Arenado’s sit at 129/130/135. If you exclude Donaldson’s injury-riddled 2018, he’s at 147/143/141. If we expect regression from Donaldson due to age, as we should, that would mean we’re still likely to see him put up similar production to what Arenado’s done in the lineup the past few seasons in terms of wRC+/OPS+/DRC+.

Now let’s take a look at how each player has gotten to those numbers.

Arenado ended 2019 with a BB% of 9.4% and a K% of 14.0%. These are in line with his career average numbers and they read similarly in 2016 and 2017 (2018 was higher in both BB% and K% but not tremendously off).

Donaldson ended 2019 with a BB% of 15.2% and a K% of 23.5%. Those are also fairly in line with his recent history so we shouldn’t expect much change from those numbers for either Arenado or Donaldson.

As for how each player is hitting the ball, here’s how they’ve trended. Arenado’s Hard Hit% from 2016 to 2019 was 37.9%, 36.7%, 42.9% to 42.1%. It’s reasonable to expect he’ll be around 42% again this season. He also has been consistent on his Line Drive/Groundball/Flyball splits, posting up a line of 19.3%/36.0%/44.7% in 2019 with a HR/FB% of 18.2% (slightly above his career average).

Donaldson appears to have found something in his swing in 2019 that’s causing him to hit the ball hard. His Hard Hit% from 2016 to 2019 was 40.4%, 36.3%, 41.0% to 47.5%. Assuming a similar swing this season, it’s reasonable to expect a Hard Hit% around 45%. His LD%/GB%/FB% in 2019 was pretty close to his career averages as well sitting at 21.5%/42.2%/36.4%.

Where Donaldson really starts to distance himself is how often he barrels the ball. According to Statcast, in 2019 Donaldson averaged a Barrel per PA of 9.4%. That ranked 17th overall in the majors. Arenado’s Barrel per PA% sat at 6.0%, which ranks 146th. In terms of Expected Stats, Donaldson’s xwOBA in 2019 was .387, good enough for 19th in the majors. Arenado’s was .344, ranking him 101st.

With Donaldson trending in the right direction in terms of expected stats, while still putting up very solid numbers in his park factored stats, he’d actually be a small improvement to the lineup in a holistic perspective if he were to replace Arenado. At the very least, we could expect similar production to what we’re currently getting from Arenado, just on a shorter timeline given Donaldson’s age.

Now let’s focus on fielding. It’s what sets apart Nolan from the rest of the Third Basemen in the MLB and would undoubtedly be the area where the Rockies would most miss him.

In terms of DRS, Nolan has accumulated 53 DRS from 2016 to 2019. That ranks 2nd in the MLB. Donaldson actually ranks 3rd in that same time span, though his DRS only totals to 21.

By UZR, Nolan ranks 3rd at 26.1. Donaldson ranks 7th at 6.6.

And by Fangraphs’ DEF (Defensive Runs Above Average), Arenado and Donaldson again rank 3rd and 7th with 35.3 and 13.0 respectively.

The biggest thing about Nolan’s fielding, though, is all the flashy plays he makes on seemingly impossible opportunities. This is captured fairly well in Fangraphs’ Inside Edge Fielding metrics, which quite simply measure the percentage of balls fielded by each fielder that are deemed Routine Plays (90-100% likelihood of fielding the batted ball), Likely Plays (60-90%), Even Plays (40-60%), Unlikely Plays (10-40%) and Remote Plays (1-10%).

From 2016-2019, Nolan has made 11% of all Remote Plays. That ranks 2nd among qualified fielders in the MLB behind Matt Chapman (who’s played 2,000 less innings at 3B than Nolan in that time span). The next closest to Nolan is Anthony Rendon at 4.7%. Donaldson ranks 6th overall at 2.6%.

This is going to be the area where Nolan’s absence would be noticed the most. In 2016, 2017 and 2019 (excluding Donaldson’s injured season) Arenado accumulated 5.8 dWAR per Baseball Reference. Donaldson accumulated 2.6 dWAR.

So would the dropoff be all that bad? In my opinion, no. It may not even be all that noticeable should it happen. And in all actuality, it may be worth it if trading Arenado is the only option that Bridich is left with.

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On the defensive end, we’d simply be brought back to the norm that most of the other MLB franchises are stuck at. Offensively, we may even see improved production. Not for as long as we’d experience it from Arenado, but it’d improve things in the short term. And if the Rockies bring in Donaldson and they’re not competitive next season? Then hey, maybe Donaldson can be a trade candidate that would still garner a fairly worthy return.

As for how feasible this scenario actually is depends on how the rest of the 3rd base market shakes out. While the Braves currently make the most sense for an Arenado trade, it may not make much sense for them to sell the farm to the Rockies and take on Arenado’s salary when they already passed on Anthony Rendon (whose AAV is extremely similar to Nolan’s). Their best move may simply be to bring back Donaldson at the 4 year, $100M offer that’s been rumored to have been put in front of Donaldson.

And if the Rockies do trade Arenado to the Braves, would they want to have Donaldson be part of a sign-and-trade to ensure they’re getting Donaldson? Or would they want to change the direction they’re going in and aim for a full blown rebuild? Bringing in Donaldson would signify that you still think you’re competitive (and by all signs the Rockies still believe they’ll be competitive in 2020).

A ton of factors are still in play to even make this a reasonable scenario, but it’s one that the Rockies should entertain if trading Arenado is the only option they have left.