A Very Coors-y Christmas: Presents, Stocking Stuffers and Coal

The Colorado Rockies and Pitching: Coal

Going into the 2018 season the Rockies locked up Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee and the moves were heralded by the baseball world as great and that the Rockies’ bullpen would be one of their biggest strengths going forward.

Ah…good times!

The truth is these moves haven’t worked out and that’s not much of a shock by any means. In 2018, the bullpen was the definition of middle of the road (ranked 15th in fWAR, FIP and ERA-) and was abysmal in 2019 (next to last in both FIP and fWAR, 19th in ERA-).

We’re likely going to see a similar bullpen going into 2020 as no moves were made at the Winter Meetings that are going to help strengthen the bullpen going forward. Us fans will need to bank on the hopes of a rebound from Wade Davis, who posted his worst career numbers in the following categories:

K%
BB%
ERA
ERA-
FIP
FIP-
WHIP
Hard Hit %
HR/FB%
fWAR (and probably the others too)

It wasn’t just a bad year for Davis. It was really bad. This may be attributed to an increase in the use of his cutter (up to 34.9% from 28.8% in 2018). While it’d be ideal for the Rockies to trade him to shed payroll, it’s extremely unlikely that they will as Bridich practically refuses to make trades. We’re most likely in for another roller-coaster of a ride with Davis in the bullpen at least until the July trade deadline (you better hope it’s good or else he’ll be here for longer).

Bridich did try to help send reinforcements to the bullpen at the Winter Meetings and did so with the addition of Tyler Kinley. Formerly of the Marlins, Bridich told Rox Pile’s Kevin Henry that the Rockies have “thought highly of (Kinley) for a number of years.” He’s a two pitch pitcher (fastball & slider) and that combo ideally should perform decently at Coors, but the stats show a lot of concern.

While he finished 2019 with an ERA of 3.65 and an ERA- of 87, he posts an extremely concerning WHIP of 1.60. A lot of that is due to his BB% of 16.3% (which would be the highest in the Rockies bullpen in 2019) but you can only expect his WHIP’s going to increase at Coors. His stats with the Marlins don’t exactly inspire confidence and it looks like the Rockies are hoping for an Ottavino type of replacement. That shouldn’t be the expectation for Kinley by any means, but his addition to the bullpen doesn’t seem to inspire much confidence.

We’re likely to experience another subpar season from the bullpen. And even if we’re able to trade Davis, Shaw or McGee in return to shed payroll, it’s unlikely we’ll see enough improvement to turn his bullpen into a consistently above average product in 2020.

The Colorado Rockies and Fielding: Present

If there’s something that you can run to the bank with when it comes to the Rockies, it’s the fact that you’re going to see generally strong fielding in the infield. It’s been a staple this decade that’s been headlined by Arenado, Tulowitzki, LeMahieu and Story. We’ve been spoiled with fantastic fielding and it’s something we need to appreciate.

Take this stat for instance: Nolan Arenado‘s Career DRS is at 117. He ranks 2nd among all Third Basemen behind only Adrian Beltre, who accumulated 222 DRS in 19,723 innings. Nolan’s more than halfway to Beltre’s DRS in less than half the amount of innings (8,807 innings for Nolan). And while his DRS numbers have tapered off the past two seasons, he still has a great shot to eventually catch up to Beltre given he stays healthy and that longevity is favorable to Arenado.

A couple other fielding presents? Why not.

Trevor Story has accumulated 33 DRS in his four seasons in the majors. That’s already 185 more DRS than eventual 1st Ballot Hall of Famer Derek Jeter accumulated in his career (who finished with a Total DRS of -152).

And this one’s just spectacular stat. A couple weeks ago on Twitter, I jokingly proposed that the Rockies should trade for Kris Bryant as the Cubs are aiming to shed payroll and that it’d also help improve the Rockies outfield. Here’s what I didn’t realize:

In 2019 Kris Bryant had a UZR/150 of -15.4 in Right Field. Charlie Blackmon, whose declining defense has been the subject of many discussions, had a UZR/150 of -10.7 in 2019.

That’s right! Not only is Nolan Arenado a better fielding Third Baseman than Kris Bryant, but Charlie Blackmon is also a better fielding Right Fielder than Kris Bryant. Merry Christmas!

The Colorado Rockies and Offseason Moves: Coal

If you’re ever in a gift exchange and you end up with a bad gift, you better hope Jeff Bridich isn’t in your group because the chances he’ll trade you if you ask him to will be as likely as Wade Davis having a 1-2-3 inning at Coors.

The Winter Meetings came and the Winter Meetings left with the roster looking basically exactly the same as it looked coming into them. The only notable additions the Rockies made were adding Tyler Kinley to the bullpen and signing Drew Butera to a minor league contract. While there are definitely needs for upgrades in the bullpen and at and catcher, these would hardly qualify as upgrades and really are questionable moves in themselves.

Were you hoping that maybe they’d try to shed some payroll and trade off some names like Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Daniel Murphy? Well you’re a fool for thinking that was even a possibility (don’t worry, that makes me a fool too).

Bridich’s prior comments about the team being strapped for cash this offseason already set low expectations for what would come, but it doesn’t even feel like a real effort was made to honestly better this team. That leads to the fact that he feels the current roster can go back out and immediately jump back into contention. Now last season had a lot go wrong, but it also exposed a lot of weaknesses that should’ve been addressed.

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Instead, Bridich is banking on the following things:

• Wade Davis will bounce back
• Kyle Freeland‘s issues were solely blister related and he will bounce back
• Daniel Murphy will be a better player overall and his dropoff last season isn’t indicative of his future
• Ian Desmond decides to hit every single ball in the air instead of consistently drilling balls into the ground in an attempt to lower the overall elevation of Coors Field in an effort to dispel the Coors narrative
• Ryan McMahon continues to progress and/or Brendan Rodgers comes back healthy and rakes at 2B as promised
• The rest of the bullpen outside of Oberg (who was extended during the Winter Meetings so it’s not *all* bad for the Rockies this offseason) pitch close to league average
• The 4th and 5th spots in the rotation are filled by MLB capable pitchers (or Peter Lambert improves and Chi Chi Gonzalez‘s September is repeated every single month of the season)
• Tony Wolters barrels at least one baseball

That is a lot to bank on to get back into serious contention. And Bridich has done nothing to truly address any of the glaring issues this team has. If the plan is to truly bank on the current roster, then it’d be smart to take away some of the expensive, older pieces that haven’t performed and replace them with the younger players.

While Davis, Shaw and Murphy wouldn’t get back the Rockies all that much in terms of value, it’d be worth it to get them off the books ahead of time to clear up payroll and provide more financial flexibility to be able to extend guys like Story. It might even clear up some room to bring in a big name free agent down the road (although that’s likely a pipe dream given this Front Office’s *checks notes*……ah yes, entire history).

Hopefully, in the next few months the Rockies do surprise us and make some moves that actually do improve this team. But with the only real moves to date being the additions of Kinley and Butera, I’m not hopeful.

The Rockies and Walker’s Hall of Fame Bid: Present

It’s Walker’s 10th year on the ballot. He needs a big push to get over the 75% hump and things are projecting positively for him so far.

As of this writing, 32 ballots have been publicly submitted and tracked by Ryan Thibodaux and his Hall of Fame Tracker Team and Walker is on 81.25% of the ballots. Last year at this time Walker was on 68.8% of ballots, so that near 13% increase early on is going to be beneficial to him.

And other writers are starting to take notice. Maybe it’s because it’s Walker’s 10th and final year on the ballot and they’re starting to recognize how great of a player he actually was. A giant shift in understanding and accepting sabermetrics has certainly led to many realizing that even by Park

Adjusted numbers Walker is an above average Hall of Fame right fielder.

You’ve already seen my flawless case for Walker (which caused no uproars whatsoever and people took the comparisons completely level-headed). He’s got the 4th highest bWAR of any player on this year’s ballot and that’s been pushed consistently. He’s changing the opinions of 45% of BBWAA voters so far and flipping them from excluding them on their previous ballots to including them this year. Per Tangotiger on Twitter, that 45% is the exact percentage of votes he needs to flip to be elected this year.

This year is his best shot. The stars are aligning and those who were previously bearish on his career are starting to see the light (a light that shows only a third of his total plate appearances took place at Coors Field, to be frank). This has to be the year and this will be the year.

The Colorado Rockies and Nike Jerseys: Stocking Stuffer

“Nike’s taking over and look at all the new jerseys and designs that are coming out for other teams and I CAN’T WAIT UNTIL THEY DO SOMETHING FOR THE ROCKIES BUT I HOPE THEY DON’T MESS IT UP!” – Every Rockies fan on social media this past month.

We all hoped something cool was going to come from Nike taking over the jerseys this year (especially with the changes made with the Brewers, Padres and Rangers) and predictably the Rockies are keeping their jerseys the exact same as they pretty much always have been (they’re taking the same approach with the roster so why not?). Do they need some sort of changes? Probably not a ton.

Would changes be welcomed? Absolutely!

But what parts of the jerseys should they change? The home pinstripes are pretty solid (pardon the pun) and the purple alternates have become absolutely beloved in the past couple seasons. That leaves some leeway with the road grays and the Rocktober black vests as the most likely jerseys to be affected if and when Nike and the Rockies decide to try to spice things up.

One of the most welcomed ideas on social media was implementing some sort of green alternate (think more forest green or something similar to the color of the seats at Coors). This idea has been thought of in the past (and also was used in the 1998 All Star Game when it was held at Coors Field). Use this as the basis of a new alternate would be a great, fresh way to kick off a relationship with Nike and help further the Rockies’ brand beyond just purple.

As for the hype about the Nike swoosh needing to be on the front of the jerseys, it’s really not all that big of a deal. Would it have been better to put it on one of the sleeves instead of the chest? Absolutely. But it’s not going to ruin jerseys. Ads on NBA jerseys are much more prominent and even those don’t completely infringe on the designs of the jerseys and are starting to blend in more than anything. The Nike swoosh is much smaller and less prominent and won’t be a big deal for very long.

If the social media push for changes to the jerseys keeps coming, I think we’ll be likely to see new designs implemented with the Rockies. They may not stray too far from current state, but honestly they don’t need to stray too far. They just need to freshen up some.

More from Rox Pile

• A Colorado Rockies Thanksgiving
• Colorado Rockies: What if Todd Helton had played football instead?
• Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon out for the season
• Colorado Rockies: Injuries shift look of roster ahead of Dodgers series
• Colorado Rockies: Has Sean Bouchard earned a second look in 2023?

The Colorado Rockies and Their 2020 Outlook: Stocking Stuffer

The good news is I think last year is as bad as it gets with this roster. You saw a blister that derailed Freeland’s entire season and threw the rotation completely out of funk. You saw some growth out of younger guys in the bullpen (Diaz, Estevez) and Oberg got his extension, but you saw the implosion of Wade Davis and anyone else besides Diaz/Estevez/Oberg who took the mound late in the game. You saw Murphy hit well for a short stretch but then crumble apart after that. You saw the entire team forget how to hit in the months of April and July.

There’s no mincing it up: 2019 was pretty terrible overall.

But 2019’s conceivably their floor. This roster had a Winning Percentage of .574 in the months of May and June and is capable of performing at a high level (a season long record with that type of winning would have put them at 93-69) . The flipside, though, is this same roster had a Winning Percentage of .370 outside of May and June with a larger sample size (would be a season long record of 60-102).

The optimist in me tells me that they’re likely closer to being a competitive team than they are being a potential 100 loss team, but not enough to the point where the current roster is likely to get over the hill and be a threat in the playoffs.

We’re going to see another stretch of banking on the young guys to produce. There’s worthy talent with Dahl and McMahon to continue their stay in the starting lineup and Sam Hilliard‘s time in the majors last year was extremely promising. Rodgers will likely get another chance to prove himself worthy this season and hopefully last year’s struggles change him for the better.

We should also see a decent bounce-back on the mound from Freeland and ideally Daniel Murphy will get back to his normal self at the plate and hit with a wRC+ around 110 like he did in 2018 instead of his underwhelming 86 in 2019. Another solid bat and arm, both of which are already on the roster, would greatly benefit the Rockies.

We’ve gotta keep expectations in mind, though. I’m not in line with the Front Office’s thinking that this team can honestly compete in the postseason, but I do think they’ll rebound back into being a team that can compete for a Wild Card. I don’t think they’ll necessarily win it, but I’d expect that they’ll at least be in consideration for one late in the season.

Currently, I project a record around 84-78 for the Rockies in 2020 with the roster that’s presently constituted. It won’t be anything overwhelming, but the Rockies should at least have a lot fewer moments where they appear to be the most incompetent team in the National League that isn’t deliberately trying to tank. They still need to make moves that truly improve them, but picturing them being around .500 shouldn’t be out of the question.

With that said, Happy Holidays to everyone out there and may Chuck Nazty Claus bring you everything you asked for!