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WARPed on WAR: How each site’s WAR views the Colorado Rockies

By Kevin Larson

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 29: Sam Hilliard #43 of the Colorado Rockies reacts to scoring in the 13th inning against the Milwaukee Brewers as Ian Desmond #20 of the Colorado Rockies congratulates him at Coors Field on September 29, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. Colorado won 4-3 in 13 innings. (Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 29: Sam Hilliard #43 of the Colorado Rockies reacts to scoring in the 13th inning against the Milwaukee Brewers as Ian Desmond #20 of the Colorado Rockies congratulates him at Coors Field on September 29, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. Colorado won 4-3 in 13 innings. (Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images) /
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CLEVELAND, OHIO – JULY 09: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies and Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians participates in the 2019 MLB All-Star Game at Progressive Field on July 09, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO – JULY 09: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies and Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians participates in the 2019 MLB All-Star Game at Progressive Field on July 09, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

As for how the Rockies compare to the other teams that you in the Twitterverse helped select at random, here’s how their WAR totals vary by site:

The team with the least variation of these four teams is the Indians. Excluding their largest High/Low Gap of 7.5 (difference between Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus in 2019), they only see gaps of about 2-3 “wins” each season while in 2015 each site viewed them nearly the exact same. The Rays’ gap is usually around 3-5 “wins” with the exception to 2018 and 2019 where Baseball Reference viewed them as about 7 and 10 wins higher respectively than Baseball Prospectus. If we ignore the monstrosities of 2015 and 2016 for the Rockies, their gaps stay between about 3-7 “wins”.

The biggest gaps happen with the Tigers. With the exception of 2018, the gaps range from 9.8 to 17.5 and all are the difference between Fangraphs (views them favorably) and Baseball Prospectus (views them unfavorably). The average gap between all four teams when you consider all data points is about 8.1 WAR (this drops to 6.7 if you exclude the 20.1 and 22.5 gaps for the 2015 and 2016 Rockies seasons). So WAR is assuredly more consistently funky for the Tigers than the other three teams due to Baseball Prospectus viewing them significantly lower than Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

Now, I’m not trying to make any arguments for or against any site here as each has their own pros and cons, rather I hope what you’re getting from this is that it’s not enough to just look at one site’s WAR and assume it’s completely correct.

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