Why the Colorado Rockies will be under the .500 mark in 2020

Colorado’s rotation stumbles again

Last year, Colorado sent 11 starters to the mound. Those 11 posted a 5.87 ERA, which was the second-highest in franchise history, only trailing 1999’s mark of 6.19. Those 11 also threw 842.1 innings. Compare that to the previous season when the Rockies used just seven starters and led the National League with 932 innings.

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Yes, injuries happened … but so did poor pitching.

This year, the Rockies are relying on Kyle Freeland to bounce back from a horrific 2019, as well as German Marquez to improve upon his 4.76 ERA and 29 home runs surrendered and Jon Gray to continue the momentum he found last season on the mound. But what about after that?

Who will be the fourth and fifth starters for this team? There are a lot of internal possibilities but each carries a question mark as a season-long solution. Will the Rockies look outside the organization in free agency or trades? The Rockies don’t have much to spend and, even if they did, spending big on pitching hasn’t been done since the days of Mike Hampton.

If Colorado’s starters can’t find their rhythm, it will be hard for the Rockies to be successful in 2020.

Colorado can’t move or hide their bad contracts

We talked in this article about the domino effect for the Rockies if they could move Daniel Murphy’s contract in the offseason. His is likely the most movable of the aforementioned big contracts.

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So the Rockies are likely stuck with veteran players who aren’t living up to their deals in 2020. Certainly, if those veterans can rebound, all will be well. But there’s a slim chance of that being the case. After all, as an example, Ian Desmond’s struggles have been well-documented in his three Colorado seasons.

So if the Rockies can’t move them, can they hide them somehow? Can Desmond be used solely against left-handers (where his splits are actually productive)? Can Davis, Shaw and McGee be used in low-pressure situations while the Rockies hope Carlos Estevez, Jairo Diaz and Scott Oberg come through when they’re needed the most?

The answers to these questions will play a big role in Colorado’s record next season.

Colorado’s All-Stars don’t perform

Last year, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Trevor Story were named National League All-Stars. It marked just the second time in Colorado history that four players had been named All-Stars (along with 2017) and the first time all four had been position players.

Dahl would have his season cut short by a high ankle sprain after just 100 games (finishing with a .302 average) while Blackmon, Story and Arenado each finished with 32 or more homers and solidified the lineup.

Can the quartet keep up the production this season? It is possible but there are some warning signs.

Blackmon will turn 34 next season and finished last season’s as (statistically) Colorado’s worst outfielder with -9 Outs Above Average via Baseball Savant. Can the Rockies count on Chuck Nazty’s eye-popping offensive numbers outweighing the defensive flaws again this season?

Dahl will once again be looking to avoid missing long stretches of time with injury. Can 2020 be the year he breaks through on the health side as well? Colorado struggled to replace him last season at the plate and in the field when he went down in early August.

Arenado played in 155 games last season, marking the fifth consecutive season he has hit that mark or higher. Can he stay healthy? The same can be asked of Story, who was a part of 145 games in his fourth season.

These four players make up the core of Colorado’s offensive power (and, with Story and Arenado, the defensive backbone of the team). They will have to perform at their best (and have young players rise to the occasion in the lineup around them) in order for the Rockies to avoid another losing season.