Colorado Rockies: Comparing Nolan Arenado’s value to the other big three
If the 2019 season taught us anything, it’s that $1.32 billion does not equal a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. That is a lesson the Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Angels learned the hard way.
The $1.32 billion is the total combined contracts these four teams shelled out for Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Mike Trout last offseason. However, these teams ended the season a combined 60 games under .500, with the Phillies leading the way with a meager 81-81 record. With the lackluster performances in the standings, it begs this question: Which team has received the best return on their investment so far after one season?
Nolan Arenado — 8 years/$260 Million
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Arenado had arguably his best season in his seven-year career. He had career highs in batting average and OPS while striking out 29 fewer times than the previous season. He also provided his typical production numbers in home runs and RBI and should receive his sixth consecutive Gold Glove. Unfortunately, the Rockies pitching was atrocious, causing a 20-game difference in the win column from 2018.
Bryce Harper — 13 years/$330 Million
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As far as production, Harper had a good season, hitting 35 homers and driving in a career-high 114 runs. However, he also struck out a career high 178 times and walked 31 fewer times than the previous season and only hit .260. Even though the Phillies had the best record of these four teams, their season win total only improved by one from the previous season.
Manny Machado — 10 years/$300 Million
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Of the four players, Machado had the roughest season. He had a career-worst mark in batting average and strikeouts and saw most of his numbers in the major statistical categories dropped from the previous season. This was somewhat to be expected considering he now plays half of his games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. With the addition of Machado, the Padres won five more games than the 2018 season but they still finished last in the NL West.
Mike Trout — 12 years/$430 Million
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The once-in-a-generation player, Trout, had himself another stellar season. He finished the season only behind Cody Bellinger in WAR at 8.3 and had a career-high 45 home runs. However, having the highest paid player in MLB history doesn’t equate to victories as the Angels lost eight more games than the 2018 season.
The jury is still out but, after one season, the Rockies and Angels have won the big contract sweepstakes. In my opinion, the Angels are actually underpaying the 27-year-old Trout and once some of their bad contracts (i.e. Albert Pujols) come off the books, they will be able to build a roster around him.
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For the Rockies, not only did Arenado play up to his contract, they also have something the other three teams don’t have: An opt-out after the 2021 season. If the Rockies continue to struggle the next two seasons, Arenado could leave for greener pastures, freeing up a ton of payroll for Rockies. This would be a good thing for both parties.
Machado may be in the best situation since the Padres have one of the best minor league farm systems in the MLB. With a small payroll and a lot of trade pieces, the Padres could easily build a roster around the 26-year-old. As long as 2019 was just a bad season for Machado, the Padres could be a team to reckon with in the coming seasons.
I have said it before and I will say it again, in my biased opinion, Bryce Harper is the most overrated player in all of baseball. The fact that the Phillies will be paying the career .276/.385/.512 hitter almost $30 million a year until he is 38 years old is almost laughable. I dare Harper to prove me wrong, but I believe the Phillies are going to regret the day he signed on that dotted line.