The good and bad of Marcus Stroman joining the Colorado Rockies

You can disregard Stroman’s 5-9 record as Toronto has had an abysmal season, but his 3.18 ERA and 141 ERA+ are both very good. Though he has little experience facing the NL West, he has good numbers against all four of Colorado’s division rivals, including surrendering just two runs while striking out eight over seven innings in his lone start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Earlier this season, he pitched his first game at Coors Field and looked solid, going seven innings giving up just three earned runs to a powerful Rockies lineup.

Additionally, Stroman is entering his final year of arbitration so he would not just be a rental as the Rockies would have him at least through the 2020 season and perhaps beyond if he ends up signing an extension.

One more thing worth noting is that the Rockies and Blue Jays have a long history of swapping players at the deadline (Troy Tulowitzki, Seunghwan Oh), for whatever that’s worth.

While potentially a benefit, the length of Stroman’s contract could also hurt the Rockies in two ways. First, it means Colorado will have to give up more to get him, which if he’s good will be worth it, but if he struggles, could lead to a lot of regret.

What might it take to get him? Our Jake Shapiro tackled that question in this article.

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That brings us to the second danger of Stroman’s contract. He’s been highly inconsistent throughout his career and throwing the wrench that is Coors Field into that equation is cause for concern. Stroman is making over $7 million this year and will likely make more in arbitration in 2020.

We’ve seen that the Rockies tend to give preference to players making the most money rather than those who are actually playing better. If Stroman tanks in a Rockies uniform, we might have to get used to seeing him pitch every fifth day until 2021 anyway.

Is there reason to believe he will tank? As I mentioned before, he pitched well in his lone appearance at Coors Field and he is in the midst of potentially his best season yet. That being said, he is coming off a season in which he recorded a 5.54 ERA in 19 games. At Coors Field, that could easily inflate to an even more unsightly number.

Which Stroman will the Rockies get? It’s impossible to know. While you could assume he corrected course this season, his 5.54 ERA in 2018 came just one season after finishing in the top 10 in AL Cy Young voting. He also posted a 4.04 ERA in June, which could suggest a regression to the mean.

For me this deal is eerily similar to the disastrous trade Pittsburgh pulled off at last year’s deadline, bringing in Chris Archer from Tampa Bay in return for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Archer has been nothing short of bad for Pittsburgh (5.49 ERA) while Meadows is an All-Star and Glasnow was 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA in his first eight starts for Tampa Bay this season before landing on the 60-day injured list.

Stroman has tended to have lower ERAs than Archer throughout their careers but Archer has had more strikeouts, and their career ERAs are almost identical (3.84 for Archer, 3.81 for Stroman).  Also, Archer finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting in 2015 but, like Stroman, has been highly inconsistent every other season.

While Stroman has the potential to help the Rockies’ pitching staff, he will come with a high price tag that, in the end, he just might not be worth. It’s hard to predict whether he will be a success or a disaster in Colorado due to his erratic track record. It’s likely the Rockies will get some good and some bad from Stroman … but is that worth what they’d have to give up to get him?

This is likely a high-risk, medium-reward move that the Rockies might want to stray away from. At the same time, there are not a lot of pitching options available that the Rockies can afford and, unfortunately, Stroman may be the best fit.