Colorado Rockies: Players who may see their first-half fortunes change

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: Daniel Murphy #9 of the Colorado Rockies dives for first base for an out of Matt Beaty #45 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: Daniel Murphy #9 of the Colorado Rockies dives for first base for an out of Matt Beaty #45 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, COLORADO – MAY 09: Mark Reynolds #12 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on May 09, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – MAY 09: Mark Reynolds #12 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on May 09, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Mark Reynolds

Mark Reynolds has been an exceptionally useful role player for the Rockies in two of the last three seasons (he spent 2018 in D.C. with the Nationals). He’s provided a key source of right-handed power off the bench or starting in place of injured players like Ian Desmond.

This year, however, has been a different story. Reynolds’ return to Denver has seen him struggle to an unsightly .162/.294/.325 batting line that makes it look like age may have finally caught up with the veteran slugger.

Though Reynolds will be turning 36 in August, there may be another explanation for his downturn: BABIP. Reynolds’ batting average on balls in play is a shockingly low .217 – way, way below his career mark of .302. In short: his hits just aren’t falling in.

He is still hitting the ball hard – in fact, his 89.7 average exit velocity is his highest mark since Statcast data became available in 2015. His hard-hit percentage is a healthy 41.1% and his walk percentage is at a career-high 14.3%.

Make no mistake, time will eventually catch up to Reynolds as it does all players, but maybe there’s still a little shine left on the Sherriff of Swatingham’s star after all.

Wade Davis

Just as balls haven’t been falling in for Reynolds, too many have fallen in for closer Wade Davis. Davis sports an opponent’s BABIP of .355 on the season, which is even further away from his career norm of .286. For a closer with a naturally smaller sample size, this can make a huge overall difference.

Davis sports a rather unsightly 4.91 ERA, however his FIP is a more palatable 4.23. There’s also reason to think that he could see some improvement in his control, as Davis has walked 6.14 batters per 9 innings – nearly double his career rate of 3.44.

This abnormal walk rate may be partly due to the fact that Davis dealt with an oblique strain that landed him briefly on the IL for the end of May and beginning in June. With a few more regular innings under his belt it seems reasonable to think that Davis could easily return to the form that helped him save a league-leading (and Rockies record) 43 games last year.

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