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Colorado Rockies: Players who may see their first-half fortunes change

By David Sharp

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: Daniel Murphy #9 of the Colorado Rockies dives for first base for an out of Matt Beaty #45 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: Daniel Murphy #9 of the Colorado Rockies dives for first base for an out of Matt Beaty #45 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, COLORADO – JUNE 10: Pitcher Scott Oberg #45 of the Colorado Rockies throws in the eighth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field on June 10, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – JUNE 10: Pitcher Scott Oberg #45 of the Colorado Rockies throws in the eighth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field on June 10, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Also of concern is the fact that Statcast ranks Wolters in the bottom 3% of the league in average exit velocity (83.6mph), hard hit rate (18.7%), and barrel percentage (0%) – that’s right,

technically Wolters has yet to barrel a single ball this season. These numbers all indicate that Wolters isn’t exactly killing the ball off of the bat and that a downturn could be coming.

The good news, however, is that the ‘stache should be fine. As the old saying goes: you can’t teach ‘stache.

Scott Oberg

It’s fair to wonder where the Rockies might be without the services of Scott Oberg. He’s been the team’s most reliable arm out of the bullpen, setting up closer Wade Davis (more on him later) and even taking over that role when Davis was injured.

As crucial as Oberg has been to the team’s success thus far, it’s fair to wonder if how long he’ll be able to keep up this level of play. His 5-1 record certainly looks nice on paper, but as we all (hopefully) know at this point, win-loss records aren’t great indicators of a pitcher’s true performance – especially when that record includes two wins that he received after blowing saves.

His 2.15 ERA is certainly a more accurate representation of his performance than his record, however below that sterling figure are some warning signs of potential trouble to come. Oberg’s FIP and xFIP are 3.48 and 3.83, respectively – an enormous difference between reality and expectation.

This gap is due in large part to a very fortunate 83.3% strand rate and a minuscule .220 BABIP – well below Oberg’s career .296 mark. Both of these marks seem to indicate that Oberg has been particularly fortunate so far this year and it would be rash to assume that this will continue throughout the season.

That said, even with luck factored out of the equation Oberg has still been among the team’s best pitchers and there’s no reason to think that will stop. His end-of-year numbers are unlikely to be quite as pretty as they are right now, but he should still be a crucial part of this team’s success going forward.

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