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Colorado Rockies: Players who may see their first-half fortunes change

By David Sharp

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: Daniel Murphy #9 of the Colorado Rockies dives for first base for an out of Matt Beaty #45 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: Daniel Murphy #9 of the Colorado Rockies dives for first base for an out of Matt Beaty #45 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, COLORADO – MAY 30: Tony Wolters #14 of the Colorado Rockies hits a RBI sacrifice fly in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on May 30, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – MAY 30: Tony Wolters #14 of the Colorado Rockies hits a RBI sacrifice fly in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on May 30, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

The mean can be a cruel mistress. For those that fortune has briefly favored, she can pull them back down to their expected levels.

But regression can be forgiving as well. If a player keeps hitting hard line drives, they will eventually find grass. Pitchers whose ERA gets destroyed by some bloops that fall in will watch that number shrink as their sample size grows.

When you start to look at the Colorado Rockies, you can see that there are some that are playing over their heads that may come back down to earth, as well as some whose rough starts may be the results of some bad luck. Here is an examination of some players that may see their fortunes change over the second half of the season.

Two Players Whose Numbers May Get Worse

Tony Wolters

There’s a lot to like about Tony Wolters’ start to the 2019 season. So far he’s at career-high levels for batting average (.302), on-base percentage (.374), slugging percentage (.395), and weighted on-base percentage (.331). He should easily blow past his career highs in runs and RBI for the season, plus he’s sporting one of the top ‘staches in the league to boot.

There are some signs, however, that regression may be coming. Wolters has been the beneficiary of a .345 BABIP, which helps to explain why his actual rate stats are considerably higher than his expected rates. His expected batting average is .246, expected slugging .318, and expected WOBA .281.

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