Colorado Rockies: You should have seen (at least some of) this coming

According to Baseball Reference, the Rockies offense currently has an OPS+ of 45, which means they are currently playing at a clip that is 55 percent below league average (after adjustments to ballparks played in). They are hitting .208/.272/.323, which is third to last, second to last, and last in the National League.

I don’t think anybody would have predicted that the Rockies offense would be this inept but the general concept of the Rockies offense struggling is nothing new.

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The reason for that is that we are currently in the worst era for Rockies offense in the history of the franchise. Don’t believe me? Well, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Rockies offense will perform to 90 OPS+ or less this season. At this point, I think everybody would welcome a 90 OPS+. If they end up at 90 or less, it will mean that for the first time in Rockies franchise history that they will have an OPS+ of 90 or less for three straight seasons.

To top it all off, they had an OPS+ of 89 in 2015 meaning that they are well on their way to have an OPS+ of 90 or less in four out of the last five seasons (in 2016, the Rockies had an OPS+ of 97).

There were three other times in franchise history that the Rockies offense has played that poorly.

• 1993 and 1994 (87 and 88 OPS+)
• 1999 and 2000 (87 and 87)
• 2005 and 2006 (85 and 90)

The following seasons had OPS+ numbers of 94 in 1995, 97 in 2001, and 98 in 2007.

So the belief that “you just know that they’re going hit” is not based in fact, at least for this group thus far.

Will they hit better over time? Absolutely, because you can only hit .208 for so long … but the Rockies offense will struggle, because it has struggled in past seasons and the front office has not added many new names to change that.

Pitching

You are probably more surprised at how bad the Rockies pitching has been. In this span of losing 10 out of their last 11 (and the one win was a 1-0 win), the Rockies pitching has been atrocious.

In that span, they are pitching to a 5.81 ERA. The other concerning number is that they are allowing 4.5 walks per nine innings.

The top of the rotation has not been all bad as of the top three starters (Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Jon Gray), they have only had two to three bad starts.

They are, arguably, these three starts.

1. Freeland: April 2 v. Tampa Bay (4 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 10 K) (this is a debatable one because it’s decent numbers besides the walks and innings)
2. Gray: April 6 v. Dodgers (6 IP, 8 H, 5 R/ER, 2 BB, 4 K)
3. Freeland: April 8 v. Atlanta (5 IP, 7 H, 7 R/ER, 4 BB, 3 K)

Each Freeland, Marquez, and Gray have made three starts thus far so, arguably, a third of their starts have been subpar. The main problem for Gray, as you probably know by now, is that he allows home runs … a lot. In fact, on Thursday, he extended his streak (the longest streak in Rockies history) of 15 consecutive games (dating back to July 31, 2018) of allowing at least one home run.

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However, Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis are dragging down the rotation, and you could see it coming a mile away.

Tyler Anderson is on the disabled list now with knee issues. Apparently, he was playing through the knee injury that he sustained in spring training (never a smart idea to play through injuries). He pitched to an ERA of 11 in two starts (nine innings).

Chad Bettis has been bad all around bad and he hasn’t seen the results that the Rockies want in a very long time. This year, he has pitched to a 11.88 ERA in 2 starts this year (8 1/3 IP, 14 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 6 BB, 5 K).

The last time he gave the Rockies a “quality start” was on August 12, 2018. In 20 starts last season, only seven were “quality starts” so he’s not a consistent starter for the Rockies. Once Antonio Senzatela returns from the IL, I suspect that Bettis’ time in rotation will be over.

Bullpen

The Rockies bullpen is pitching to a 4.01 ERA, which is 13th in baseball so they are pitching better than they were last season. However, DJ Johnson, Carlos Estevez, and Mike Dunn have all struggled in their appearances as they each have ERAs of 4.91 or higher.

Last year’s goat, Bryan Shaw, has been a saving grace for the Rockies bullpen thus far as he has an ERA of 1.17. However, his walk rate of 4.7 per nine innings thus far could come back to haunt him if it continues.

The bullpen has really been the least concerning thing for the Rockies thus far. Part of it is because the bullpen, lately, has been coming in when the Rockies are already well behind but it has been ok to start the season.

Final Thoughts

There’s no question that the Rockies offense will get better over time and the rotation will start to pitch better.

However, don’t be surprised to see some regression in the rotation and the offense struggle throughout the season because the Rockies do not have the depth that they should regardless of injuries.