Colorado Rockies: It’s time to stop calling Jon Gray “mentally weak”

Colorado Rockies’ ace starting pitcher Jon Gray struggled through an incredibly tough 2018 season, a campaign that saw him get demoted to Triple-A Albuquerque for a couple of starts with the hope of getting him back on track, as well as being left off of the postseason roster. What was the cause of his struggles last season? What changed between his standout 2017 season and his underwhelming 2018?

There’s something we need to discuss.

Since Jon Gray gave up four runs on seven hits while recording just four outs in the 2017 NL Wild Card Game, a narrative has taken off that he can’t handle the big moments, and that he’s “mentally weak.” Gray’s extremely tough 2018 season didn’t help put this storyline to bed, either.

First, let’s dig into the numbers. When it was all said and done, he finished last year with an ERA of 5.12 in 31 starts. He threw 172.1 innings in those 31 starts, struck out 183 hitters and walked 53, one of which was intentional. The numbers that stand out to me are his 180 hits given up, 102 runs allowed (98 earned, which led the NL) and 27 home runs surrendered. Every one was a career-high.

It’s worth taking a look at his advanced peripheral stats as well. His fielding independent pitching (FIP), which essentially gives you a better idea of what his ERA would have been had he experienced league-average results on balls in play and league average timing, according to Fangraphs, was 4.08, more than a full run lower than his ERA.

A search on Baseball Savant reveals something even more bewildering. Gray’s swing & miss % on each of his four main pitches increased from 2017 to 2018, except for one: his changeup.

Changeup: 43.8 percent to 33.3 percent

Fastball: 12.6 to 17.5

Slider: 34.3 to 38.2

Curveball: 36.0 to 41.8

Where we can start to see the problem lies in his average exit velocity of all of his pitches. It increased from where they were two seasons ago on all five pitches he utilized:

Fastball: 88.3 mph to 90.5 mph

Curveball: 85.4 to 86.3

Changeup: 83.3 to 89.6

Sinker: 79.8 to 88.1

Slider: 77.8 to 87.3

When Gray was hit, he was hit hard, a lot harder than in 2017. Most notably his slider, a pitch he used 34 percent of the time, left the bat almost 10 mph faster, on average.

Staunch Jon Gray supporters who cited these peripherals were often criticized for “making excuses” for the maligned starter. There is some merit to that, because at the end of the day Jon Gray simply did not live up expectations and help the Rockies win games. But getting back to the headline, I believe it is irresponsible, and unfair to Gray, to claim that he is suddenly “mentally weak” without any kind of input from a psychologist. I do not believe stating that Gray had an incredibly unlucky season, as these peripheral stats suggest, and that he simply wasn’t good enough are mutually exclusive.

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Now, as I’ve stated in the past, I’m no major league pitching coach, so I’m not going to pretend to know what Gray’s exact problem was, or what he needs to do to make sure he doesn’t experience a repeat of 2018. There’s not a doubt in my mind that Gray has been working extensively with the Rockies’ coaching staff to right whatever went wrong last year. A recent column by The Denver Post‘s Patrick Saunders included this quote from Gray, regarding speculation of his mental weakness:

“It’s so ridiculous, I can’t even respond to it. I wasn’t at a point last year to feel strong, to feel confident. It was hard, because I was doing everything I knew and I still wasn’t getting results.”

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m going to trust what Gray says over what anyone else thinks to know what’s really going on inside his skull.

My main point is this: while Gray’s overall numbers and results weren’t pretty last year, his peripheral stats suggest last year should not have been as bad as it was. Additionally, it was one bad season. Those tend to happen in sports, and Gray has shown everyone what he is capable of when he’s on his game.

Before we start crucifying him for his disappointing 2018 season and questioning his mental health, let’s give him a chance to get back on the right track and be the starter the Rockies know he can be and need him to be.