Colorado Rockies: It’s time to stop calling Jon Gray “mentally weak”

His ERA+, which is a park-adjusted version of ERA that tells you how much better or worse the league was than a certain pitcher, was 92. This means that the league ERA was eight percent lower than Gray’s. Below average, yes, but not absolutely terrible.

Let’s compare this to his 2017 season, when he earned that Wild Card start. He finished that year with a 3.67 ERA in 20 starts (he suffered a stress fracture in his left foot in an April start in San Francisco that put him on the shelf for an extended period of time).

He gave up 47 total runs (45 earned) on 113 hits, he struck out 112 hitters and walked 30. His FIP was 3.18, much closer to his 3.67 ERA, and he posted an ERA+ of 138. We can all agree that his 2017 was much better.

A quick look comparing some of Gray’s other 2017 peripheral stats with those from 2018 reveals some surprising similarities. His K% was a tick better in 2018 than it was in 2017 (24.6 vs 24.3), as was his K/9 (9.56 vs 9.14). His BB% was just 0.5 percent higher in 2018 (7.0 percent) than in 2017 (6.5). His batting average against was identical between the two seasons (.263). His WHIP? 1.35 in 2018 vs 1.30 in 2017. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was actually lower last season than it was in 2017 (.322 vs .336).

A search on Baseball Savant reveals something even more bewildering. Gray’s swing & miss % on each of his four main pitches increased from 2017 to 2018, except for one: his changeup.

Changeup: 43.8 percent to 33.3 percent

Fastball: 12.6 to 17.5

Slider: 34.3 to 38.2

Curveball: 36.0 to 41.8

Where we can start to see the problem lies in his average exit velocity of all of his pitches. It increased from where they were two seasons ago on all five pitches he utilized:

Fastball: 88.3 mph to 90.5 mph

Curveball: 85.4 to 86.3

Changeup: 83.3 to 89.6

Sinker: 79.8 to 88.1

Slider: 77.8 to 87.3

When Gray was hit, he was hit hard, a lot harder than in 2017. Most notably his slider, a pitch he used 34 percent of the time, left the bat almost 10 mph faster, on average.

Staunch Jon Gray supporters who cited these peripherals were often criticized for “making excuses” for the maligned starter. There is some merit to that, because at the end of the day Jon Gray simply did not live up expectations and help the Rockies win games. But getting back to the headline, I believe it is irresponsible, and unfair to Gray, to claim that he is suddenly “mentally weak” without any kind of input from a psychologist. I do not believe stating that Gray had an incredibly unlucky season, as these peripheral stats suggest, and that he simply wasn’t good enough are mutually exclusive.

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Now, as I’ve stated in the past, I’m no major league pitching coach, so I’m not going to pretend to know what Gray’s exact problem was, or what he needs to do to make sure he doesn’t experience a repeat of 2018. There’s not a doubt in my mind that Gray has been working extensively with the Rockies’ coaching staff to right whatever went wrong last year. A recent column by The Denver Post‘s Patrick Saunders included this quote from Gray, regarding speculation of his mental weakness:

“It’s so ridiculous, I can’t even respond to it. I wasn’t at a point last year to feel strong, to feel confident. It was hard, because I was doing everything I knew and I still wasn’t getting results.”

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m going to trust what Gray says over what anyone else thinks to know what’s really going on inside his skull.

My main point is this: while Gray’s overall numbers and results weren’t pretty last year, his peripheral stats suggest last year should not have been as bad as it was. Additionally, it was one bad season. Those tend to happen in sports, and Gray has shown everyone what he is capable of when he’s on his game.

Before we start crucifying him for his disappointing 2018 season and questioning his mental health, let’s give him a chance to get back on the right track and be the starter the Rockies know he can be and need him to be.