3 reasons why the 2019 Colorado Rockies won't make the postseason

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DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 10: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies reacts after striking out in the first inning of a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on September 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

I know, I know. You saw the headline and immediately shrieked in horror. How could someone who covers the Colorado Rockies actually say the team won’t make the postseason for a third consecutive year? “It’s blasphemy,” you mutter as you prepare to never come back to this site again.

Well, here is the good news for you Colorado Rockies fans who believe this way. I’m going to write an article for tomorrow that lists the three reasons why Rocktober will happen again in 2019. So yes, I will be arguing with myself. I’m sure some of you who know me personally won’t be surprised. Be looking for that article tomorrow. In fact, you can now read it by clicking here.

I will also tell you that, at a recent Rockies media roundtable, I was the only member of the panel who said Colorado wouldn’t be back in the postseason in 2019. I predicted they would go 82-80 this season. Why did I say that? It’s certainly not because I don’t believe they have the talent. Any time with a left side of the infield containing Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado will always have some pop as well as some Gold Glove-worthy highlights.

But there is more to a season than just who is slotted into the lineup every day. There are plenty of exterior factors that play into a team’s success … or lack thereof.

So today, let’s tackle the three potential reasons why the Rockies might not be playing this October.

Regression on the mound

One of Colorado’s biggest strengths last season was the rotation. Kyle Freeland and German Marquez provided a solid 1-2 punch with Freeland even getting some Cy Young Award buzz and finishing fourth last year while Marquez is already getting discussed in conjunction with the award next season.

Both had memorable seasons last year and both are expected to do great things again this year. There is a lot of optimism surrounding Tyler Anderson and many within the Colorado organization believe that Jon Gray will bounce back from his disastrous 2018.

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As was pointed out in this Denver Post article, last season, Colorado’s starters posted a 4.17 ERA (second-lowest all-time for the franchise), had 84 quality starts (third-most in Colorado history) and struck out a franchise-high 883 batters. Impressive to say the least.

But what if Freeland or Marquez regresses this season? If the two young pitchers can keep moving forward and not take any steps back, it would be spectacular. However, the question has to be asked about two young pitchers (Freeland is 25 and Marquez turns 24 later this month).

Can Anderson and Gray really iron out their inconsistencies and cement the back end of the rotation?

Also, can Colorado’s starters stay healthy for a third straight campaign? Last year, seven pitchers started a game for the Rockies (and that included Jeff Hoffman’s one start). Four of those pitchers made 30 or more starts. In 2017, eight starters were used and five of them had 20 or more starts.

Compare that to 2016 (11 starters) and 2015 (12 starters) and you’ll see that Colorado has not only been good on the mound lately, but healthy as well.

Does Colorado have the pitching depth to overcome an injury or two to key pieces of the rotation? Could an Antonio Senzatela, Hoffman or even Peter Lambert or Yency Almonte step in if needed? These are key questions that hopefully won’t have to be answered this season.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 20: First baseman Mark Reynolds #12 of the Colorado Rockies is looked at by the trainer after injuring himself on a play during the fourth inning as Manager Bud Black of the Colorado Rockies looks on against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field on August 20, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

Overall health and depth

Sure, it’s worrisome to think about an injury on the mound. However, it’s even a little scarier to think about what were to happen if an injury were to keep one of Colorado’s star players out for an extended period of time.

Nick Groke talked about this some in this article (subscription required) for The Athletic, looking back at last season’s elbow injury suffered by Trevor Story late in the campaign and the fear that that could derail Colorado’s chance of reaching the postseason. As we all know now, Colorado was able to withstand the games missed by Story and still force a Game 163 for the National League West title.

The Rockies were also able to ride through Nolan Arenado’s shoulder injury in August and his struggles that ensued at the plate after that.

Young players aren’t ready

I mentioned on the previous page how signing Daniel Murphy was Colorado’s biggest offseason move. The reason Colorado stayed mostly quiet this offseason was the belief that younger players such as David Dahl, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia and others could step up and succeed this season.

It’s a big roll of the dice. Dahl and McMahon have shown the most in games past but Hampson and Tapia have had flashes. And, of course, there is top prospect Brendan Rodgers lurking in the minors and waiting for his chance to shine.

Can Dahl stay healthy for a full campaign? Will McMahon produce given a full season of opportunities? Can Hampson add to Colorado’s lineup at the top or the bottom? Can Tapia overcome some of his defensive inefficiencies from years past and be a reliable outfielder in addition to his “mucho swagger” at the plate?

The Rockies hope the answers to all of the questions above are a “yes.” It’s an absolute gamble and one that Colorado general manager Jeff Bridich has made. Rockies fans have clamored for the last couple of seasons about the younger players getting more playing time. It seems like this could be the year it actually happens.

Next. These projections for the Rockies don't look so great. dark

There are three reasons why the Rockies might miss the 2019 postseason. Of course, I didn’t even mention that teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets look to be better coming out of the East thanks to their offseason moves and the St. Louis Cardinals made a big splash by grabbing Paul Goldschmidt in a trade. None of those three teams made the postseason last year. Did Colorado do enough to keep up with the rest of the National League? We’ll soon see.

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3 reasons why the 2019 Colorado Rockies won’t make the postseason

I know, I know. You saw the headline and immediately shrieked in horror. How could someone who covers the Colorado Rockies actually say the team won’t make the postseason for a third consecutive year? “It’s blasphemy,” you mutter as you prepare to never come back to this site again.

Regression on the mound

More from Rox Pile

Overall health and depth

Young players aren’t ready

Schedule