Colorado Rockies: Depth at every position heading into spring training

The departures of Carlos González, Gerardo Parra, and Matt Holliday open up a spot for David Dahl to make an immediate impact as a starter on Opening Day in Miami. Dahl will join Charlie Blackmon and Ian Desmond in the outfield, though the alignment of the trio is unclear at this time.

It has been reported that the Rockies are considering moving Blackmon from his spot in center field to a corner and shifting Desmond to center. However, as of the time of this article, nothing has been set in stone. While advanced fielding metrics often must be taken with a grain of salt, it became clear as the 2018 season progressed that Blackmon and Coors Field’s vast center field are not a good pair anymore. Whether that is a result of a lingering injury or age is still up for debate, but most would agree Blackmon didn’t look quite right in the field last year.

According to the Fielding Bible’s website via Fangraphs, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) indicates how many runs a player saved or hurt his team in the field compared to the average player at his position. Blackmon’s -28 DRS were by far a career worst, as well as the worst in baseball among center fielders. The Orioles’ Adam Jones owned the second-worst mark with -18. Fangraphs’ Def stat, which measures a player’s total defensive value relative to league average, also rated Blackmon as the worst center fielder, with -10.0 runs of value. The Rockies are hoping moving him out of center field can help preserve his defensive value.

We will have to wait and see if that change comes right away or sometime after Opening Day. It would make sense for the Rockies’ coaching staff to see how the trio fares in different outfield arrangements before making a final decision.

Regarding Desmond, who is still listed as an infielder on the Rockies website, the team has shown no signs of diminishing his role despite the fact that his first two seasons in a Rockies uniform have left much to be desired. It is likely he will also be a looked at as a starter in the outfield. To be fair to Desmond, one of his two career All-Star selections came in 2016, when he was primarily a center fielder for the Texas Rangers, so maybe a move back to a position at which he’s more comfortable can produce an improvement offensively.

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Behind the starters, the team is left with Raimel Tapia, Mike Tauchman, Noel Cuevas, Sam Hilliard and Yonathan Daza as the remaining outfielders on its 40-man roster. Neither Hilliard nor Daza have seen action above Double-A in their professional careers, so it’s not likely that they’ll be seen as serious backup options for the big league club anytime soon.

Tapia is fresh out of minor league options, so if he doesn’t make the Major League roster out of Spring Training, the Rockies must put him on outright waivers before he can be sent back to Triple-A Albuquerque. A different team would likely claim Tapia in that situation before he cleared waivers, so the clock is ticking for the Rockies to decide if he’s worth keeping around.

To his credit, Tapia has hit fairly well throughout the past few years, despite being bounced between the major and minor leagues many times. He owns a career .330/.367/.506 slashline with an OPS of .872 in Triple-A (187 games). He has been granted just 239 Major League plate appearances in three years, though, with most coming in 2017 (171). Not surprisingly, 2017 was his best offensive season, when he hit .288/.329/.425 with a .754 OPS, 12 doubles and two home runs in 70 games.

I am of the belief that Tapia could have blossomed into a very special player for the Rockies had he been given more opportunities to succeed. With the regular season on the horizon, it’s decision time now.

Tauchman has been an interesting case. Like Tapia, Tauchman has also performed well in his time in Triple-A. He has a career slashline of .312/.377/.493 with an .870 OPS and 37 home runs in 351 games with the Isotopes. He even won the Rockies’ 2018 Abby Greer Award as the team’s Spring Training MVP, for what it’s worth.

He’s seen big league action in each of the past two seasons as well, but just hasn’t been able to stick, looking overmatched at times. He has 69 plate appearances for the Rockies under his belt, and an underwhelming .153/.265/.203 slashline with a park-adjusted OPS+ of 20 to show for it. I don’t see Tauchman making the big league club out of Spring Training, but I believe we may see him back in Denver later on in the season if someone suffers an injury.

Cuevas, like Tauchman and Tapia, has hit well in the minor leagues. In 216 games in Triple-A, he owns a respectable .303/.350./.470 slashline with 21 home runs and an .820 OPS. He made his major league debut in 2018 and saw most of his 146 at-bats come before the All-Star Break, when he hit .254/.293/.349 with a .642 OPS. Not great, but not terrible, either. In his 20 at-bats after the Midsummer Classic, he understandably did a lot worse, when he earned just two hits in those 20 ABs. In the event that things don’t work out with Tapia, Cuevas is likely the next man up for the fourth outfielder role.

Saunders provides the Rockies with an interesting option. He’s played nine major league seasons, so he brings the veteran presence that’s obviously very important to the front office. His best days are likely behind him, though, as he last produced an above-average offensive season by OPS+ in his All-Star 2016 season with the Blue Jays (116 OPS+), and he hasn’t played in over 100 games in a season since that 2016 campaign. If he can make the most of his opportunity to make the Rockies’ Opening Day roster, playing at Coors Field may help boost his numbers and make him a decent off-the-bench choice.

My projections:

Starters: Blackmon, Desmond, Dahl

Reserves (ranked based on past statistics, overall talent and confidence):

1.Tapia

2. Cuevas

3. Saunders

4. Tauchman

5. Hilliard/Daza

Overall OF Depth Grade: C+

Moving on to the infield, where the Rockies are set in their plans for four out of the five non-pitcher positions. Perennial Gold Glove winner and All-Star Nolan Arenado will man the hot corner in what could be his last season in purple pinstripes before he hits the free agent market. Last year, Trevor Story rebounded from a disappointing 2017 season with his first All-Star selection in 2018 to put a firm lock on shortstop, and as I mentioned before, Daniel Murphy will likely make his Rockies debut on Opening Day at first base.

As I pointed out earlier, Mark Reynolds is back in Colorado on a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. Reynolds spent the 2016 and 2017 seasons with Colorado before joining the Nationals in 2018. His first Rockies tenure saw him slash a combined .274/.354/.471 with an .825 OPS, which is the highest OPS he’s had with a team out of the eight for which he’s played.

Should he make team out of Spring Training, Reynolds can provide good right-handed pop off the bench, something the Rockies desperately needed last year, and provide good defense at first base on rest days for Murphy. He is also familiar with the organization, so that can’t hurt either.

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There were some appealing options at catcher on the free agent market this offseason to upgrade output at what was a pretty dismal position offensively for Colorado last year, most notably Wilson Ramos and Yasmani Grandal. Rockies catchers combined for a weighed runs created plus (wRC+) mark of 67, which was good for sixth-worst in baseball. For context, wRC+ attempts to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs. 100 is league average, and the stat is park-adjusted. Only the Athletics, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Orioles and Red Sox saw worse production from their catchers.

The Rockies were content with their Tony Wolters and Chris Iannetta duo for chemistry reasons, though, and we can safely assume they’ll split time behind the plate for most of the season similar to what we saw last year.

Tom Murphy is the third catcher on the Rockies’ 40-man roster at the time of this article. He has shown flashes of being a productive Major League hitter but has never been able to put it all together. In parts of four seasons with the Rockies, Murphy has produced a .219/.271/.439 slashline with a career .710 OPS. He struggled in 37 games with the Rockies last year, striking out 44 times in 96 plate appearances, and a poor defensive game in Milwaukee on August 5 was the straw that broke the camel’s back. He was demoted to Triple-A on August 7, but was recalled again with the rest of the September callups on September 1.

The departure of fan-favorite DJ LeMahieu provides an open door for some promising options at second base. The Rockies appear fully prepared to trust in their youth in the infield as they did on the mound in 2018. Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson are both clamoring for more consistent Major League playing time, and they will play for the job throughout the spring.

The two co-creators of the Purple Dinosaur Podcast, one of the older and more well-known Rockies podcasts out there, MiLB writer Tyler Maun and MLB on FOX crew member Anthony Masterson gave their thoughts on who they’d rather see win the job on their January 16 episode, starting at the 57:00 mark. From Tyler:

“I’d go McMahon. I love Garrett Hampson, but I think he’s got a little bit more time that he can develop with. Ryan McMahon, earlier draft pick… he’s been in pro ball longer, I think Ryan McMahon is ready for that moment, whereas I think they have a little bit more time to work with Garrett Hampson… I think Ryan McMahon provides you a little bit more pop in the lineup, I would like to see Ryan McMahon as an everyday player.”

Anthony picked Hampson:

“I want to see Garrett Hampson get 500 at-bats this year, because I’ve watched him, I covered him at Long Beach State. I’ve watched him come through the system and put up the exact same outstanding slashline every single level no matter what. He’s an advanced bat, he’s an advanced glove as well. He got 48 plate appearances last year and slashed .275/.396/.400. He’s not going to hit 30 home runs, but he handles the bat extremely well, he’s a high-average guy, he steals a lot of bases, and he’s very efficient at stealing bases. He can play second, he can play short, I love Garrett Hampson.”

They’re not wrong. Hampson has a higher career minor league batting average than McMahon (.315 against .297), and he hit better than McMahon in his abbreviated major league stint in 2018. (.275 against .232). McMahon showcased his pop last season as well, hitting some huge, game-changing home runs, highlighted by his three-run, walk-off home run against the Dodgers.

Either direction the team chooses to go, I do not believe there’s a wrong choice between the two.

The remaining infielders on the 40-man roster are Arenado’s cousin, Josh Fuentes, and Pat Valaika. Fuentes has yet to make his MLB debut, but he has hit very well the past few seasons in the minor leagues. He hit .327/.354/.517 with a .871 OPS in 135 game with the Isotopes last year. His OPS hasn’t fallen below .869 since 2015, when he posted a .705 mark.

Valaika, on the other hand, is coming off a disappointing 2018 season with the Major League club. He saw time at all four infield positions, and hit just .156/.214/.246 with an OPS of .460 and an OPS+ of 16. He  He was a great offensive threat off the bench in 2017, when he hit 13 home runs and produced an OPS of .817, but that power and production vanished in 2018.

My projections:

Starters: Arenado, Story, McMahon/Hampson, D. Murphy

Reserves (ranked based on past statistics, overall talent and confidence):

1. McMahon/Hampson (whoever doesn’t earn starting 2B job)

2. Reynolds

3. Fuentes

4. T. Murphy

5. Valaika

Overall IF Depth Grade: B+

Finally, we’ve reached the pitching staff. German Márquez and Kyle Freeland broke out as a dominant 1-2 punch in the rotation last year, and each had their milestones to prove it. Márquez broke the Rockies’ single-season strikeout record of 214, previously held by Ubaldo Jiménez. Márquez finished with 230 total strikeouts. Freeland threw 6.2 shutout innings on the road as he led the team he grew up rooting for past the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game. He also finished with the lowest qualified single-season ERA in Rockies history, with a mark of 2.85 over 202.1 innings.

Jon Gray took a big step back from his impressive 2017 season. He finished with a 5.12 ERA, and he gave up 98 earned runs, which led the National League, on 180 hits, and was even demoted to Triple-A for two starts. He gave up 27 home runs as well, which blew his previous career high of 18 out of the water. Whether it was because of mechanical issues or if there was something wrong between his ears was hotly debated all season long. Results are results, though, and numbers don’t lie. Gray didn’t live up to expectations last year when it was all said and done.

Antonio Senzatela and Tyler Anderson had rollercoaster 2018 campaigns. Anderson had a phenomenal April and July. He had a 1.88 ERA with 25 strikeouts in five April starts and a 2.16 ERA with 32 strikeouts in five July starts. May and August were his undoing. His May ERA was 5.28, and in August it was a horrific 11.39. He gave up a total of 45 runs in those two months alone.

Senzatela finished the year with a 4.38 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 69 strikouts, and turned in some pretty good outings. September was his best month, when he posted a 3.25 ERA in five starts. Most of his struggles came in the earlier months. His pre-All Star Break ERA was 5.34, versus his post-All-Star Break ERA of 3.90.

Chad Bettis struggled in his first full year removed from beating testicular cancer. He appeared in 27 games, and started 20. He posted a 5.01 ERA in 120.1 innings with 80 strikeouts. The interesting thing about Bettis’ season is he started out as the Rockies most reliable starter. He threw 37.0 innings in April, and gave up just 10 runs, good for a 2.43 ERA. It was downhill from there.

The bullpen had some very good pieces, and some very bad ones. Adam Ottavino bounced back from his abysmal 2017 and transformed himself into one of the most lethal relievers in baseball. He was rewarded for it by way of a $27 million contract from the New York Yankees. Scott Oberg was a pleasant surprise, keeping pace with Ottavino throughout the season and coming in to close out the NL Wild Card game. He struck out all four hitters he faced. Wade Davis had an up and down year, but was mostly solid in his first season in Colorado. He also broke Greg Holland‘s franchise single-season saves record of 41 from 2017 with 43 last year. Seunghwan Oh arrived at the trade deadline in a deal with the Blue Jays, and also pitched very well.

DJ Johnson was also a surprisingly solid arm after making his Major League Debut. He appeared in seven games and actually made the Rockies NLDS roster. Yency Almonte was another young reliever who made his big league debut and fared well, having posted a 1.84 ERA in 14 games. Jeff Hoffman has yet to really find his footing in the major leagues, as he appeared in just six games, five of them as a reliever. Harrison Musgrave, Chris Rusin, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee and Mike Dunn all had varying degrees of disappointing seasons.

The good news for the Rockies is it would be pretty hard for these guys to have a worse year than they did 2018. Last year overall was not a good one for the bullpen. Colorado relievers posted the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.62) and had the tenth-most walks per nine innings (3.75). Rebound years from guys like Shaw, Rusin, Dunn and McGee would go a long way in helping the Rockies make it back to the playoffs.

Overall, assuming that the bullpen doesn’t completely implode following the loss of Ottavino (like it did in 2018 when he hit the IL), the club should be alright. It’s not a fantastic bullpen by any means, but the guys they have should be able to do their jobs when it matters most.

My projections:

Starting Pitchers: Freeland, Márquez, Anderson, Gray, Senzatela

Relievers (ranked based on past statistics, overall talent and confidence): Oberg, Oh, Davis, Johnson, Rusin, McGee, Hoffman, Shaw, Musgrave, Dunn, Bettis

Overall Pitching Staff Depth Grade: B-

To wrap this whole thing up, I don’t believe the Rockies have a phenomenal team by any stretch of the imagination. They will be good enough to stay in the hunt for the playoffs for most of the year, but many of the teams they competed with for the Wild Card last year have gotten considerably better. The Cardinals, Phillies and even the Mets could all be in the race and give Colorado a hard time. The Rockies have a dogfight ahead of them, and if they make it back to October baseball, they’ll have earned it.