Colorado Rockies: The State of the franchise

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DENVER, CO – JULY 25: A general view of the stadium as the Colorado Rockies take on the Houston Astros during interleague play at Coors Field on July 25, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies defeated the Astros 3-2. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

With the real State of the Union being delivered later tonight, we have decided to give the state of the Colorado Rockies…and it’s not all sunshine and roses.

My fellow Rockies and baseball fans,

2018, despite the ups and downs of a 162 game schedule and some unforeseen issues, was an excellent year for the Rockies as they reached the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history.

They were in the hunt for the National League West until Game 163 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. While they lost in Game 163, they defeated Javier Baez and the Chicago Cubs by a score of 2-1 in 13 innings, despite Baez saying that the Rockies and their future opponents (which never came along as a result of their elimination) “know that we’re the best.”

The Rockies, however, were vanquished handedly in a sweep in the NLDS by the Milwaukee Brewers, who advanced to face the Dodgers in the NLCS. The Brewers went to a seventh game in the NLCS before the Dodgers won and advanced to the World Series for the second straight season (and lost for the second straight season).

For the Rockies, that simply is not good enough, especially when the state of the franchise could be at a crossroads this time next year.

The Rockies need their bullpen investments, who the Rockies front office paid over $100 million for on the free agent market last season not to mention past signings, to pull their weight.

Bryan Shaw, who the Rockies spent a minimum of $27 million on (he has a team option for 2021), pitched to an ERA (5.93) nearly double of his career prior to joining the Rockies (3.13). He did pitch much better from August through the end of the season (2.57 ERA) but by then, he had been largely relegated to a mop up role. Overall last season, he allowed three more hits per nine innings, nearly doubled his walk rate, and his home runs allowed rate multiplied by 150 percent.

Fellow free agent signing Jake McGee pitched to a 6.49 ERA in 61 games and allowed three more hits per nine innings in 2018 after he was given a minimum of $27 million for three seasons, like Shaw, along with a team option, again like Shaw.

In addition to Shaw and McGee, Wade Davis did not put numbers as good as previously seen but he fared better than the other two. He pitched to a 4.13 ERA and had 43 saves for the Rockies but from the All-Star break through the end of August, Davis had an atrocious 6.27 ERA.

Left-handed reliever Mike Dunn also signed a 3-year contract but he signed before the 2017 season and he has yet to step up in a Rockies uniform. In an injury plagued 2018 campaign, he pitched to a 9.00 ERA in 25 games. Batters hit .344/.482/.484 off of him in 2018 and he walked more than a batter per inning and allowed nearly 12 hits per nine innings last season. Due to the injuries, he never saw action after July 3.

Although he wasn’t a free agent signing, left-handed reliever Chris Rusin pitched to an ERA (6.09) that was nearly 2.5 times his 2017 ERA (2.65). His walk rate more than doubled in 2018 and he allowed more than a hit per nine innings more last season.

However, the Rockies saw other relievers step up like Scott Oberg and July acquisition Seunghwan Oh picked up a lot of slack but with the loss of reliever Adam Ottavino to the New York Yankees in free agency, the state of the bullpen is a big question mark.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 6: Kyle Freeland #21 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates after the third out of the seventh inning of a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field on August 6, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

The state of the starting pitching staff is as good as it has been in franchise history.

Kyle Freeland will look to improve on a season in which he came in 4th in the NL Cy Young voting. He went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA (164 ERA+) in 202 1/3 innings. Compared to 2017, he dropped his walk rate from 3.6 per nine innings to 3.1 and he raised his strikeout rate from 6.2 per nine innings to 7.7. In the Wild Card game, he only allowed four hits in 6 2/3 shutout innings. He arguably could have gone even longer as he was only at 82 pitches.

German Marquez pitched 196 innings in 2018 and went 17-11 with a 3.77 ERA (124 ERA+). Between 2017 and 2018, his walk rate slightly dropped from 2.8 to 2.7 per nine innings but he nearly raised his strikeout rate nearly 30 percent from 8.2 to 10.6 per nine innings. His FIP was even better than his ERA at 3.40. MLB.com even recently named him as a dark horse Cy Young award candidate in 2019.

The Rockies still do have some questions in the rotation in Jon Gray (who had a very inconsistent 2018 season that even saw him see a few week stint in Triple-A Albuquerque), Tyler Anderson (who pitched to a 3.57 ERA and an opponent slash line of .229/.295/.399 in his first 21 starts but pitched to a 6.71 ERA and a .288/.339/.548 in his final 11 starts).

Vying for the fifth starter spot is Chad Bettis, who pitched to a 5.01 ERA in 27 games (20 starts) in 2018 with a walk rate that went from 2.1 per nine innings in 2017 to 3.5 in 2018, and Antonio Senzatela, who pitched to a 4.38 ERA in 23 games (13 starts) with walk and strikeout rates virtually staying steady between 2017 and 2018.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 5: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies rounds third base after hitting a homer in the fourth inning in a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants on September 5, 2018 at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

The state of the Rockies offense is one that is not looking good.

For the past two seasons, the Rockies offense (not including pitchers) has been below league average by OPS+ and in the postseason, it has shown in a big way as well.

Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado are the two biggest bats for the Rockies. Story had a season in 2018 which saw him cut his strikeout rate by a total of 33 in nearly 100 more plate appearances in 2018, with 37 home runs, 108 RBI, a .291/.348/.567 slash line and 27 stolen bases. For his slash line, he raised his average by more than 50 points, he raised OBP 40 points, and he raised his slugging percentage 110 points. He was an All-Star, won a Silver Slugger Award, and came in 8th in the NL MVP voting.

Arenado came in 3rd in the NL MVP voting, his highest mark to date, and he remained consistent in nearly every offensive category, as he has for much of his career.

However, Arenado’s career with the Rockies could be at a cross roads as he is eligible for free agency after the season so this very well could be his last season in Denver.

The left side of the infield is more suspect as the Rockies could use Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, or Brendan Rodgers at second base this year after the departure of DJ LeMahieu. One or more of them will have to step up for the Rockies this season.

Free agent signee Daniel Murphy will have to move to first base for the Rockies in 2019. He has been a very good hitter in his career but in 2018, he was injured for much of the season as missed more than 70 games. However, in the prior two season, he averaged 24 home runs and 98 RBI with 45 doubles and a .334/.387/.569 slash line (145 OPS+). The Rockies need him to reclaim that former glory to improve the offense.

MILWAUKEE, WI – OCTOBER 04: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies catches a fly ball next to teammate David Dahl #26 during the seventh inning of Game One of the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on October 4, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

For the outfield, it is a bit of a question mark as well. It is not officially known the defensive alignment but it is likely that Charlie Blackmon will slide over to left field, Ian Desmond will take over in center field, and David Dahl will take over in right field.

Blackmon saw his offensive production drop by nearly 30 percent from a 141 OPS+ to 115 OPS+ but his defense numbers plummeted from -5 DRS to -28, according to Baseball Reference, which was the worst in the entire sport last year. He will also see his salary jump from $12.5 million to $21.5 million in 2019 so the Rockies need him to put up numbers like he did in 2017.

Ian Desmond, unlike pretty much every other offensive free agent in Rockies history, has not hit as a Rookie. Among 332 qualifiers in baseball last year, he was 331st in launch angle, according to Baseball Savant. He did improve upon his 2017 season but still had an OPS+ 83, which is 17 percent below league average. Considering that he has only played 133 games in center field in his career and has below average defensive numbers there, it stands to reason that he may struggle defensively in center field, but not as much as Blackmon.

David Dahl will look to take a full-time role in right field for the Rockies in 2019 but the main concern is his injury history. When he plays, he has done well. If he played a full schedule in 2018, his pace would have put him at 34 home runs and 101 RBI (113 OPS+) but he only played in 74 MLB games, partially due to injuries and he also spent part of the season in Albuquerque.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 12: Chris Iannetta #22 of the Colorado Rockies walks to first base on a bases-loaded walk-off walk as teammates and fans react in the bottom of the ninth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field on August 12, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

The state of the catching situation for the Rockies is one of major concern.

Fangraphs projects the Rockies catchers to be 26th in baseball in 2019 and it’s easy to see why. Chris Iannetta appeared in 110 games, hitting a meager .224/.345/.385 (85 OPS+). Iannetta was second worst to only Charlie Blackmon on the team in DRS, according to Baseball Reference, as he had -8 last season.

Tony Wolters, on the other hand, was excellent defensively at 12 DRS, but he struggled even more than Iannetta as he hit .170/.292/.286, which was only good enough for a 48 OPS+.

Tom Murphy looks to be on the outside looking in to start the season at least as in 93 MLB at-bats hitting .226/.250/.387 and he wasn’t good defensively in limited action (-1 DRS).

Final Thoughts

The Rockies have not improved much this offseason with the names on their roster but they need to play to their ability if they have any hope at catching the Dodgers in the division.

The Dodgers, themselves, have made a lot of moves, including trading Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Yasiel Puig as well as letting Yasmani Grandal, Brian Dozier, potentially Manny Machado go in free agency. However, they have signed outfielder A.J. Pollock, reliever Joe Kelly, and traded for Russell Martin. They also have shortstop Corey Seager returning from Tommy John surgery.

Other teams in the NL have improved their teams as well. The Cardinals have added Paul Goldschmidt to their lineup and Andrew Miller to their bullpen. The Mets have added closer Edwin Diaz, second baseman Robinson Cano, 2018 All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos, infield Jed Lowrie, outfielder Keon Broxton, and reliever Jeurys Familia this offseason.

The Phillies have added outfielder Andrew McCutchen, shortstop Jean Segura, and reliever David Robertson among others to their ranks and the Nationals have added Patrick Corbin, Brian Dozier, All-Star catcher Yan Gomes, Trevor Rosenthal, Kyle Barraclough, and Anibal Sanchez to their team. In addition, both the Phillies and Nationals are still in on Bryce Harper and the Phillies are in on Machado, per rumors.

They could pose a threat to the Rockies in a wild card spot.

The Rockies may have to pull off some big moves before the trade deadline in July for them to reach the playoffs but as it stands now, the state of the Rockies is not one that looks as good as it could be right now.

Next. Predicting the 2019 Opening Day 25-man roster. dark

The Rockies could prove to be one of the best teams in baseball but they have to have a lot of players step up when in the recent past, they have not shown many signs of it.

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Colorado Rockies: The State of the franchise

With the real State of the Union being delivered later tonight, we have decided to give the state of the Colorado Rockies…and it’s not all sunshine and roses.

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