The non-fact-based state of free agency and the Colorado Rockies

This weekend, two players (one with the Colorado Rockies’ 2018 Wild Card opponent and one with a Rockies divisional rival) opined on the state of the free agent market. As you may expect, both players took a predictable stance that is pro-player. That doesn’t mean that their stance is based on fact.

Fellow third basemen Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs and Evan Longoria of the San Francisco Giants both made comments on the free agent market, which has been slow for much of the offseason.

According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago, Bryant said this on Friday at the Cubs Convention:

“It’s really weird. Two of the best players in the game, and they have very little interest in them, from just what I hear. It’s not good. It’s something that will have to change. I know a lot of the other players are pretty upset about it.” “There’s a lot of teams out there that have the money to spend, but they’re not doing it,” Bryant said. “It’s very confusing to me. If I was an owner, president or GM, I’d love to have Bryce Harper or Manny Machado on my team.” “You work for that moment in your career,” Bryant said. “You feel like every team should want you. For them to not have that, it could be disheartening for them. …It’s not about the greed. They’ve put in the work to warrant contracts that are worthy of it.”

Evan Longoria posted this on Instagram:

As with any player or person in general, they can have their opinion…but it doesn’t mean that their opinions are based in fact.

The simple fact of the matter is that both Bryant and Longoria are wrong…or at least ignorant of how free markets work in baseball.

Bryant and Longoria said very similar things but let’s discuss Bryant first.

Bryant said “If I were an owner, president or GM, I’d love to have Bryce Harper or Manny Machado on my team.”

Here, he’s absolutely correct. Most of the 30 teams would like to have them…for the right cost. For the right price, team’s would get over Machado’s antics in the 2018 playoffs (including not being “the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ in his words to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic), attempting to throw a bat a pitcher five years ago, and other instances that I’m probably forgetting.

Teams would also put aside Harper’s tendency to be “controversial like A-Rod,” including fights with teammates and 12 other MLB players said Harper had it coming to him and another one said on Twitter, in regards to that same situation that he was part of the “#EntitlementGeneration.”

It should be noted that Harper could be signed by his former team, the Washington Nationals, right at this moment. As you may or may not remember, he was offered a 10 year contract for $300 million at the end of the season…and Harper declined the offer flatly. Now, at this juncture, he’s likely not to receive an offer close to that.

Machado was offered a deal “thought to be around $200 million” by the Chicago White Sox, who have recently signed Machado’s brother-in-law Jon Jay to a free agent deal and traded for his best friend, Yonder Alonso, this offseason. Yet, he has not accepted their offer.

Bryant also added that “it’s not about greed.”

Well then, Kris, if it’s not about turning now a total of a half of billion dollars combined between the two, what is it about? Perhaps it’s that they don’t want to play for the Nationals or White Sox?

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that’s the case.

Who’s fault is that?

It’s not the market, it’s not the owners or front office executives (for at least two teams). It’s not the fans (more on you, the fans, in a minute). It’s the player’s fault and, potentially, the agent’s fault (if they think their client can get $300+ million and fall short). If you turn that down and get something better, that’s fantastic but don’t complain when you get burned. If you don’t want to fix the problem with a solution, don’t complain about the “problem.”

Evan Longoria’s comments

The other comments were made by Longoria, who I personally have more of an issue with.

Starting at the beginning, he said that some of the best players haven’t signed yet and it was “[s]uch a shame” that they haven’t.

Again, as I just pointed out, who’s fault is that? It’s not the owners, front office executives, or their fan’s faults. It’s the player’s and agent’s fault.

Secondly, he said “It’s (sic) seems every day now someone is making up a new analytical tool to devalue players, especially free agents.”

Just because Longoria is aging an becoming a worse player with a contract that is part of the reason why team’s have become a lot smarter and paid their franchise players in their prime (e.g. Nolan Arenado will make somewhere at or just below $30 million this year and the Rockies extended him to a deal that was very player friendly contract at the beginning of his arbitration eligible years) instead of paying them when they are a shell of themselves when they are 35 years old and older.

For the record, Longoria hit .244/.281/.413 last year and in each of the past two seasons, his OPS+ has been below league average but it’s the statisticians that are making him look bad, not his natural digression that every person alive deals with at some time or another.

Thirdly, Longoria says “As fans, why should ‘value’ for your team even be a consideration?” Why? It’s because fans are more knowledgable than ever before and fans want their franchise to win. Novel concept, I know. If a team doesn’t spend a quarter of a billion on one player, they can spend that money on four or five players.

After all, baseball isn’t a sport in where a team can succeed on just one dominant player, like football (e.g. Tom Brady and the Patriots in the NFL or LeBron James and any team he’s been on in the NBA). Nolan Arenado in his pre-2017 career but from 2015-2016, in particular, is a prime example.

The next sentence in Lonogoria’s Instagram post is my biggest problem with his statement and, frankly, it makes him look bad.

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• Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon out for the season
• Colorado Rockies: Injuries shift look of roster ahead of Dodgers series
• Colorado Rockies: Has Sean Bouchard earned a second look in 2023?

Final Thoughts

So, Evan Longoria isn’t happy because other players that haven’t received contracts that have ripped owners off and, as a result, hurt their team and hurt the fans, as they don’t get to see a winning team. The problem that he and Bryant have neglected to see is my earlier point: other players are getting paid earlier in their career when they are better.

And with these cheaper free agent contracts for top flight free agents (“cheaper” being a relative term), that have stayed fairly level in the past few years, other middle market teams, like the Colorado Rockies, can afford them. That doesn’t mean that they will pan out (as the contracts for Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Mike Dunn have not panned out, at least thus far) but that is a risk that teams take.

The days of the 10-year contracts are gone because owners and front office executives have learned from their mistakes. However, if the players and agents don’t learn from the mistakes of the owners or take advantage of the mistakes that are made by owners, they will be left without a contract that is the most lucrative or the longest.

In fact, they may find themselves on the market again next year.