Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado and the contracts for the 2020 season

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DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 13: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates as he crosses the plate after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on September 13, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Much of the talk surrounding the Colorado Rockies this offseason has been what to do with free agent signings in anticipation of the battle it will take to retain Nolan Arenado’s services following this season.

The 2019 season is the last one where the Colorado Rockies are guaranteed to have Nolan Arenado patrolling the hot corner and gunning for yet another Gold Glove. It is estimated that the 27-year-old four-time All-Star will make a record $26.1 million in arbitration this offseason heading into what could potentially be his final season in Denver.

Are the Rockies looking ahead now to save where they can in order to be competitive with teams with bigger payrolls when the time comes to pay Arenado? Estimates of a 10-year, $300 million contract for Bryce Harper have been thrown around this offseason and it’s likely Arenado could be looking at that type of contract next offseason.

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Paying Arenado an average of $30 million per year is slightly higher than what he will make this season … but doing it for a decade (or even five or six years) could skew Colorado’s payroll greatly toward one player. Sure, he’s one of the best in the game … but it would still tip the scales greatly in Arenado’s favor when it comes to his piece of the pie in the overall payroll … or would it?

Let’s look ahead to some of the big contracts for the Rockies next offseason that could play a role in Colorado’s ability to compete for Arenado’s services.

Money, money, money. dark. Next

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 7: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies follows through on a swing for his 1,000th career hit – a sixth inning single – against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field on August 7, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

For purposes of this article, we will focus on salaries for the 2020 season that are already in place or are estimated to be $8 million or more.

Charlie Blackmon will make $21.5 million as part of a contract extension he signed last April.

Wade Davis will make $17 million as part of a three-year, $52 deal he signed last offseason.

Ian Desmond will make $15 million as part of a five-year, $70 million deal inked two offseasons ago.

Jake McGee will make $9.5 million as part of a three-year, $27 million deal signed last offseason.

Bryan Shaw will make $9 million as part of a three-year, $27 million deal signed last offseason.

Daniel Murphy will make $8 million as part of the two-year, $24 million deal he inked recently.

Trevor Story, projected to make $6.4 million in his first year of arbitration this season, will likely go over the $8 million mark in arbitration next season. Let’s set it at $8 million for now, which could be low, depending on Story’s 2019 campaign.

With those numbers, those seven players will make up $88 million (or more, depending on Story) of the payroll for the 2020 season.

Let’s say that the Rockies sign Arenado and his average salary would be $30 million for next season. That would bump that figure up to $118 million for eight players.

This year, Colorado is projected to have a payroll just under $152 million. The contracts for those same eight players this season are expected to be $114 million, or roughly 75 percent of the overall payroll.

DENVER, CO – JULY 29: German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the second inning of a game during interleague play at Coors Field on July 29, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

If Colorado’s payroll were to rise 6.6 percent between 2019 and 2020 (as it did from Opening Day 2018 to its current projection for Opening Day 2019), that would put the 2020 mark at just over $162 million. Those eight players and $118 million would be 72.8 percent of the overall payroll, slightly lower than what it will be this season (the 75 percent we discussed on the last page).

So what do all of these numbers mean? Simply put, it means the Rockies are going to have to be willing to spend for Arenado … but they also know that there are other contracts at play that could be worth noting.

Options for McGee, Shaw, Murphy and Davis are lurking for 2021 and could be skipped. Desmond’s salary also goes down to $8 million in 2021 while Story’s will once again rise through arbitration. Younger players like Kyle Freeland, German Marquez and David Dahl will also be eligible for their first year of arbitration, meaning a bump in pay for them of $2-$4 million each.

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With those thoughts, could Arenado’s big salary actually fit into Colorado’s future plans? It’s possible … but it could also affect free agent signings and payrolls for years to come. Is it worth it to sign a generational player like Arenado? That’s the question that Colorado general manager Jeff Bridich will be asking himself when looking at these numbers.

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Much of the talk surrounding the Colorado Rockies this offseason has been what to do with free agent signings in anticipation of the battle it will take to retain Nolan Arenado’s services following this season.

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