Colorado Rockies: Exploring trading away Jon Gray

In Major League Baseball, there are a few players that might be traded away this year due to a player needing a “change of scenery.” One of the biggest candidates for that is the Colorado Rockies former ace Jon Gray.

Jon Gray has had a fall from grace and, as a result, he has found himself at a crossroads. The Colorado Rockies opening day starter in 2017 and 2018 found himself in Triple-A Albuquerque by the end of June. He returned in July with mixed results the rest of the way (5-2 with a 4.37 ERA in 14 starts but he had a 7.20 ERA in the month of September in 6 starts).

The Rockies former ace has been passed by Kyle Freeland and German Marquez in the rotation. This was shown as he was not on the Rockies NLDS roster. This offseason, Gray could find himself in a different uniform due to his struggles.

MLB.com recently looked at some trade candidates and possible locations for them and Jon Gray was on the list. Additionally, our colleagues over at Rays Colored Glasses, FanSided’s Tampa Bay Rays site, and Jays Journal, FanSided’s Toronto Blue Jays site, have examined why their clubs should pursue Jon Gray in a trade in the past few days.

There are about 20 teams that could use Gray and most of them have some major league talent that the Rockies could use to address some of their needs. Today, we will explore the top five places that could use Jon Gray and also give them some major league talent to fill in some of the Rockies needs.

Let’s begin with one of the aforementioned teams.

The Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the most interesting teams in all of baseball. They got rid of some of their best players, including former Rockie and 2017 Corey Dickerson before the start of the 2018 season, their franchise cornerstone (3rd baseman Evan Longoria), their closer Alex Colome in May, and their ace Chris Archer in July.

They also, essentially, only had one starter, in Blake Snell, who, last night, was named the AL Cy Young Award winner. For nearly all of the rest of their games, they decided to use an “opener”, a concept that helped them have the best starter ERA the rest of the season.

As it stands, they really only have two starters, Snell and Tyler Glasnow, who they acquired in the Archer trade.

The Rays are known to be a team that is strapped for cash and, as a result, they maybe willing to take a flier on Gray, who is arbitration eligible for three more seasons before becoming a free agent. Gray is projected to make $3.2 million in arbitration this year.

The asking price for Gray would still be high considering his potential and the three years of control that the acquiring team would receive.

So, who could the Rockies look for in return that could help them out on the major league roster in 2019?

Some major league help that the Rockies could look to acquire if they were to strike a deal with the Rays include:

C.J. Cron: In 2018, in 140 games, he hit 30 home runs, 74 RBI with a .253/.323/.493 slash line, and an OPS+ of 123. He also has 4 Defensive Runs Saved at first base in the past three seasons, according to Baseball Reference.

Kevin Kiermaier: One of the best defensive outfielders, arguably, ever, Kiermaier has 117 Defensive Runs Saved in five seasons in the major leagues (an average of 23.4 per season). Mind you, that’s in an average of 110 games per season, which is a problem with him.

He is always injured. In the past three seasons, he has fractured his hand on a diving catch, suffered from a hairline fracture in his hip sliding into second base, had a thumb injury that sidelined him for eight weeks, and broke his foot on a hit by pitch. He has only averaged 97 games per season in the past three. He has more than $44 million coming his way for through 2023 ($2.5 million team opt out for 2023 included). The Rays would have to pay some of that considering the injury history.

Tommy Pham: In the past two seasons, he has averaged 132 games per season with 22 home runs, 68 RBI, a .290/.388/.490 slash line, a 135 OPS+, and 9 DRS split between center field and right field. He is arbitration eligible for the the first time this offseason, like Jon Gray, and he is projected to make $4 million.

The Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies were very good for much of the 2018 season as they were 72-62 entering the month of September, only 2 games back of the eventual NL East champion Atlanta Braves. However, they faded in September as they finished the season with an 80-82 record.

They had a breakout season from Aaron Nola, who was a finalist in the NL Cy Young Award voting this past season and they also had Jake Arrieta, who had a good season. Their main issue is their offense. Obviously, Jon Gray would not help them there but he would provide them with some depth in their rotation which, after Nola and Arrieta, doesn’t have much.

However, they are looking to move their left fielder Rhys Hoskins, their best bat, back to first base. To do that, they need to get rid of one of their best offensive players.

That would be first baseman Carlos Santana. Last year, in 161 games, he hit 24 home runs, 86 RBI, a .229/.352/.414 slash line, and an OPS+ of 105. The reason why his on-base percentage is so high is that he always has walked a ton. He has walked at least 88 times in every full season in his MLB career. Last year, he walked 110 times compared to striking out 93.

The thing that is, perhaps, most intriguing about him is that he is a good defender and versatile. In the past two seasons, he has played first base, right field, and third base a fair amount. He had 2 DRS at third base in 119 innings there last year and in the past two seasons, he has 10 DRS at first base. In a little more than 50 innings in right field, however, he is at -2 DRS.

Last offseason, he signed a 3 year deal for $60 million with the Phillies with a team option for 2021. To trade him away and also get Jon Gray to help out, the Phillies would have to pay a lot of that contract…and they still would have to pay more.

A name that could also help the Rockies out on the major league roster in 2019 is former Rockies reliever and current Phillies reliever Pat Neshek. Neshek is owed $7.75 million this year and there’s a $750k buyout for 2020. The Phillies may also have to pay a bit of that as well.

If the Rockies and Phillies were to talk about Gray, there would almost definitely be some prospects coming the Rockies way as well but Santana and Neshek would be the two pieces currently on the Phillies to help the Rockies out on the major league team in 2019.

***Note: First baseman Justin Bour was originally going to be part of this but he was placed on waivers by the Phillies Wednesday afternoon so the Rockies, if they decide that they want him, will either have to claim the former Home Run Derby participant on waivers or, if he passes through waivers, he would likely refuse his outright assignment and become a free agent. Then, the Rockies could get him that way. We discussed more about him in this article this morning.***

The Pittsburgh Pirates

This is, to me, the most intriguing team on this list. They have, perhaps, the best options for the Rockies and the Pirates’ pitching coach, Ray Searage, has helped many pitchers get their career back on track when they were at a crossroads since he became the Pirates pitching coach in the middle of the 2010 season.

These reclamation projects include A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, Arquimedes Caminero, Jason Grilli, Joe Blanton, Vance Worley, Ivan Nova, Neftali Feliz, and many others.

Jon Gray could also join that list and give the Pirates a very formidable rotation including Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon (3.20 ERA in 32 starts last season), and Trevor Williams (3.10 ERA in 31 starts in 2018).

On the major league roster, the players that the Rockies should most be interested are their outfielders.

Right-fielder Gregory Polanco: 2018 stats: 130 games, 23 HRs, 81 RBI, 32 doubles, .254/.340/.499 slash line, and 128 OPS+. Defensively, he had -5 DRS in 2018 but he had 3 DRS combined between 2016 and 2017. Contractually, he is owed $26.3 million over the next three years, which takes him through his age 29 season. After that, there are team options for 2022 and 2023 for $12.5 and $13.5 million with a total of $4 million in buyouts.

Some other fits for the Rockies could be:

Center-fielder Starling Marte: 2018 stats: 145 games, 20 HRs, 72 RBI, 32 doubles, 33 stolen bases, .277/.327/.460, 114 OPS+, 50 DRS in the past 4 seasons (9 DRS since 2017). Contractually, he is owed $10.33 million this season and there are 2 team options for 2020 and 2021 for $11.5 million and $12.5 million. There are also buyouts for a combined $3 million.

Left-fielder Corey Dickerson: The former Rockie played in 135 games in 2018 with 151 hits, 35 doubles, 13 HRs, 53 RBI, .300/.330/.474 slash line, 119 OPS+, 16 DRS (which was enough to get him a Gold Glove for this season). He is projected to make $8.4 million in 2019, his final year before free agency.

Also, two of their relievers might pique the Rockies interest.

Left-handed reliever Felipe Vazquez (formerly Rivero): 2018 All-Star, 2.70 ERA in 70 games, 37 saves, 2.43 FIP, 3.1 BB/9, 11.4 K/9, average fastball velocity of 98.6 MPH. In 2017, he pitched in 73 games with a 1.67 ERA and 21 saves. He is owed $18 million over the next three seasons. He also has 2 team options for $10 million a piece for 2022 and 2023 with a combined $1.5 million in buyouts.

Right-handed reliever Keone Kela: 3.29 ERA in 54 games with 24 saves in 2018 (split between Texas and Pittsburgh). 2.97 FIP, 3.3 BB/9, 11.4 K/9. He has one more year of arbitration after this offseason, where he is projected to make $3.2 million.

There are a few other Brewers that the Rockies could look at to help fill some of their holes.

First baseman/corner outfielder Eric Thames: 2018 stats: 98 games, 16 HRs, 37 RBI, .219/.306/.478 slash line, 106 OPS+, -1 DRS between left field, right field, and first base. Owed $6 million in 2019 and he has a player option for $7.5 million ($1 million buyout) for 2020.

Outfielder Domingo Santana: 2018 stats: 85 games, 5 HRs, 20 RBI, .265/.328/.412 slash with a 97 OPS+. However, in 2017, he hit 30 HRs, 85 RBI, and a .278/.371/.505 slash with an OPS+ of 126 in 151 games. He is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason and is projected to make $2 million.

Right-handed reliever Corey Knebel: 3.58 ERA in 57 games in 2018 with 16 saves, a 3.03 FIP, 3.6 BB/9, 14.6 K/9. In 2017, he was an All-Star who led the NL in games (76) with an ERA of 1.78, 39 saves, 4.7 BB/9, 14.9 K/9.

Right-handed reliever Jeremy Jeffress: 8-1 with a 1.29 ERA in 73 games in 2018 with 15 saves, a 0.991 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, and he was an All-Star. He is owed $3.175 million next season and there is a team option for $4.3 million for 2020 with no buyout.

The Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are also another intriguing team in baseball in 2019. In 2018, they lost 100 games but they have been linked to both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, the top two free agents on the market this offseason, due to the team not having much payroll on the books this season (about $14 million before any arbitration eligible players receive their salary).

For the White Sox, much of their team wouldn’t be of much help to the Rockies (after all, they did lose 100 games for a reason: the team that they put on the field wasn’t very good) but they do have a few valuable pieces for the Rockies.

They include:

First baseman Jose Abreu: 2018 was his weakest season but he was on the DL for some of it. He still won a Silver Slugger Award and was an AL All-Star. In 128 games, he hit 22 HRs, 78 RBI, hitting .265/.325/.473 with an OPS+ of 118. In his previous four seasons in the majors, he averaged 154 games, 31 HRs, 102 RBI (he never had a season below 100 RBI), a .301/.359/.524 slash line, and a 142 OPS+. He is projected to make $16 million in arbitration for 2019, his final year before free agency.

There are two other White Sox that the Rockies could find of interest.

Right-handed reliever Nate Jones: The hard-throwing righty is the White Sox best reliever if he’s healthy. He has only pitched in 44 games combined in the past two years with an ERA of 2.81 (153 ERA+). He averaged 4.5 walks and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the past two years as well. 2016 was his last full season as he pitched in 71 games with an ERA of 2.29.

He is owed $4.65 million next year. In 2020, there is a team option for $3.75 million and another team option for 2021 worth $4.25 million (both of these options are lesser options than originally signed for but there was a clause in his contract extension saying that they will be the amounts listed above if he had to have elbow surgery, which he did have to have in 2017). Each option also has a buyout for $1.25 million for each year.

Outfielder Avisail Garcia: The White Sox have already been shopping Garcia on the market but there is also rumor that they may not tender him a contract for next season. He was an All-Star in 2018, though, as in 138 games, he had 171 hits, 18 HRs, 80 RBI, a .330/.380/.506 slash line, and a 138 OPS+. That OPS+ dropped down to 96 in 2018. He is another potential “change of scenery” candidate, much like Gray. He is projected to make $8 million this offseason, which is his final year of arbitration.

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Final Thoughts

If the Rockies are willing to trade Gray and willing to take prospects, their pool of potential teams that would have interest would expand even further.

Teams like the Angels, who have zero pitching at the major league level and don’t have much on the major league roster that would be of use to the Rockies to fill one of their gaps, would join the ranks of the other teams that do have some major league talent that they could potentially trade away in a deal to the Rockies. Also, we’re talking somewhat realistic trades so, yes, Mike Trout would help out the Rockies but there’s no way the Angels would trade him to the Rockies for Jon Gray or for anybody, for that matter.

In reality, it would probably be best for the Rockies (if they were to trade Gray) to get both some major league talent but also a few prospects. The Rockies farm system is currently in the middle of the road (exact placement is dependent on which organization is ranking but Bleacher Report ranked the Rockies farm system as 13th best in the sport at the end of the season).

As with most trade talks, they never end up coming to pass but there are some trades that do.

However, if the Rockies float Jon Gray out there (which they, and every other team, should on any player) and get some interest and some offers that would help the Rockies out now, don’t be surprised if you see Jon Gray in a different uniform at the start of the season.