Colorado Rockies: Exploring a Nolan Arenado for Kris Bryant trade

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DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 07: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies throws out Travis Shaw #21 of the Milwaukee Brewers in the fourth inning of Game Three of the National League Division Series at Coors Field on October 7, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

The best third baseman in baseball debate has raged for several years now. In Colorado, this discourse reaching a fever pitch in 2016 when Kris Bryant won National League Most Valuable Player the same season where Nolan Arenado both won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove manning the same position.

But now, with questions about the Chicago Cubs frugality and the Colorado Rockies ability/willingness to pay Arenado long-term, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden floated the idea of an Arenado for Bryant trade which was piggybacked by MLB.com.

Bowden essentially surmised that the likelihood that Bryant begins 2019 anywhere but on the Northside is low but that the right deal could make sense for the Cubs. One of those ideas was from blue pinstripes to purple pinstripes.

I don’t think that the Cubs’ front office wants to trade Bryant — but I also think they would, if they got the right deal. When I say “the right deal,” I’m talking either another superstar player coming back or a package of elite prospects who could keep the Cubs contenders for years to come. So where could those types of trades be? … How about the Rockies, who are facing their final year of control of Nolan Arenado? Would they trade him for Bryant, allowing the Cubs to try to extend Arenado instead, while the Rockies would have an extra two years of control of Bryant?

So what does this look like for the Rockies and would it be a good deal? Could they even do a straight swap of the two superstars? And how does Bryant fit?

Let’s start with why the Rockies would even do this.

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 02: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs throws to first base in the eleventh inning against the Colorado Rockies during the National League Wild Card Game at Wrigley Field on October 2, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Since 2015 when Bryant debuted of primary third baseman, only Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and Bryant have accumulated more fWAR with Bryant being No. 1.

Bryant will turn 27 this offseason while Arenado will turn 28 early in 2019 so youth is on the side of Kris as is team control. Arenado is a free agent after this next season while Bryant won’t be one until after the 2021 season.

While Arenado has dumped Scott Boras as his agent, Bryant is still represented by him but neither are going to come cheap. It’s widely expected that Arenado will set the record for a fourth-year arbitration salary this winter near $25 million while Bryant set the record for first-year arbitration last year at $10.85 million.

Arenado’s defense may be better amassing Gold Gloves in each of his six seasons in The Show but Bryant is much more versatile playing plus defense at first and third base, left and right field while occasionally playing shortstop and center.

With the Milwaukee Brewers model this past season of disregarding infield defense paying off to a National League Championship series and teams more reliant on shifting, versatility has become more important than elite single position defense.

The one big-time plus Arenado has over Bryant is in 2018 the Cubs’ star succumbed to injuries only playing 102 games while being a limited to a career worst .834 OPS when on the field. Arenado OPS’d over .930 for the third straight year and has played more than 156 games each of the past four seasons.

But Bryant has control, youth, career production, money value and a more proven postseason track record over Arenado.

PHOENIX, AZ – SEPTEMBER 22: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies reacts after striking out against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the sixth inning of an MLB game at Chase Field on September 22, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

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Put simply, if the Rockies could trade Arenado for Bryant straight up, they should do it in an instant.

It would save them money in the short-term in which they could spend on adding more offense—something they drastically need. This trade idea would also help the Rockies move around some parts. They could limit Ian Desmond‘s at bats at first, move Bryant into the outfield where the Rockies don’t have a third starter or keep him at third base though both Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers should be viable options there in 2019. Bryant would fit on Blake very nicely.

Could these teams pull off a straight-up swap? Probably not. Given Bryant’s contract team friendliness the Rockies would have to add more. And when the whole idea for the Cubs to trade Bryant was to save themselves cash down the line, adding Arenado’s current higher salary to the books doesn’t make much sense.

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Ultimately, this idea breaks down rather quickly. And from a Rockies perspective, no matter of logical team budding and that most projection systems have Bryant rebounding to once again be better, Arenado has been the more valuable player for the past two years. Selling him and also having to add something to it for a player at the same position isn’t an easy sell to fans no matter the control.

Whether the Rockies should trade Arenado is valid discussion, even though it probably won’t happen. If they could get a player like Bryant for him, maybe that makes it easier.

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Whose to say, but if it’s you in General Manager Jeff Bridich’s shoes, would you trade Nolan Arenado for Kris Bryant?

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The best third baseman in baseball debate has raged for several years now. In Colorado, this discourse reaching a fever pitch in 2016 when Kris Bryant won National League Most Valuable Player the same season where Nolan Arenado both won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove manning the same position.

More from Rox Pile

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