Three Reasons The Rockies Can Beat The Brewers in the NLDS

When the Brewers beat the Cubs on Monday, I felt a little better about the Rockies losing to the Dodgers. Milwaukee is a much better matchup for the Rockies than the Cubs would have been, even as they come in winners of eight in a row. Here are a few reasons why the Rockies can beat the Brewers and advance to the NLCS.

Starting Pitching

The Rockies will trot out right-hander Antonio Senzatela against the Brewers today and Milwaukee will send out right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who won’t be in long anyway after Brewers Manager Craig Counsell told the media yesterday that game one would be a “bullpen day” for the Brewers.

Senzatela is probably the Rockies weakest link in terms of starting pitching, but he has been totally lights out in his last three starts. He’s given up just three earned runs in 16.2 innings with 13 strikeouts with a 1.62 ERA.

On the other hand, even though it’s expected that Woodruff won’t be in long, he started against Colorado back in May for the Brewers and was shellacked for seven earned runs on nine hits in three innings.

The Brewers won a division, and a good one at that, with no clear cut number one starter. Jhoulys Chacin had a good season, but I wouldn’t call him an ace, even though he was brilliant in game 163 vs. Chicago.

Milwaukee has pitched well this season, but their potent offense has made them seem better than they are. They only have four pitchers who have started 20 games, and after that it’s been by committee.

They don’t strike many guys out, Chacin is the only starter with 150 strikeouts and they all have a propensity to walk guys, according to fangraphs, Milwaukee starters sit 20th in K/9 and 8th in BB/9. The Rockies have better starters at every spot in the rotation and in the playoffs that means something.

They also sit towards the bottom of the league (26th) in ground ball percentage at 40.7%, If the Rockies manage to steal game one, They get two games at Coors Field against non-ground-ball throwing pitchers, it could be interesting, and if they manage to steal game one Colorado will likely have Tyler Anderson, because Jon Gray was left off the NLDS roster, Germán Márquez, and Kyle Freeland for games two, three, and four. Pretty solid.

Managerial Experience

Yes, Craig Counsell is an excellent manager. The Brewers have improved their record by at least 10 games in each of his three full seasons at the helm.

But, he does not have the background of coaching in the playoffs that Bud Black does. This is Bud Black’s 5th postseason as a coach and second as manager. He has been coaching in the major leagues for 19 seasons and won the 2002 World Series with the Angels.

I don’t think that Counsell will fold under pressure by any means, but the way you manage in the playoffs does change, and he’s never done it before. He already made an interesting decision by deciding that game one would be a bullpen day.

It could end up being costly if the Rockies jump out to an early lead. Bud Black’s experience in being in countless games like this, although not a lot recently could end up having a big impact on who wins the series and moves on.

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Only ahead of Colorado in hits because they had more at-bats. Milwaukee’s bench has hit for virtually no average, and they even left their scariest power guy off the NLDS roster in Eric Thames. Curtis Granderson is the Brewers’ match to Holliday, but Granderson hasn’t done much since coming over in August.

Hernán Pérez is the most potent off the Brew Crew bench, but even he only got on base at a .290 clip. The  Rockies pitching shut down the Cubs bench in the Wild Card game, and I expect the Rockies ‘pen to be able to contain Milwaukee’s bench better than Milwaukee will contain Colorado’s.

Final Thoughts

Milwaukee has a very good baseball team, they deserve to be in the playoffs. They are coming in to the game winners of eight in a row, and have the MVP of the National League, in my opinion, in Christian Yelich.

But the Rockies have been playing well as of late too, and last I checked they have some pretty darn good players up and down the board who can do some damage against a below average Brewers starting pitching staff.

The Rockies have an excellent shot at advancing here in 2018, and if they play their game they can beat anybody.