Three Reasons The Rockies Can Beat The Brewers in the NLDS

When the Brewers beat the Cubs on Monday, I felt a little better about the Rockies losing to the Dodgers. Milwaukee is a much better matchup for the Rockies than the Cubs would have been, even as they come in winners of eight in a row. Here are a few reasons why the Rockies can beat the Brewers and advance to the NLCS.

Starting Pitching

The Rockies will trot out right-hander Antonio Senzatela against the Brewers today and Milwaukee will send out right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who won’t be in long anyway after Brewers Manager Craig Counsell told the media yesterday that game one would be a “bullpen day” for the Brewers.

Senzatela is probably the Rockies weakest link in terms of starting pitching, but he has been totally lights out in his last three starts. He’s given up just three earned runs in 16.2 innings with 13 strikeouts with a 1.62 ERA.

On the other hand, even though it’s expected that Woodruff won’t be in long, he started against Colorado back in May for the Brewers and was shellacked for seven earned runs on nine hits in three innings.

The Brewers won a division, and a good one at that, with no clear cut number one starter. Jhoulys Chacin had a good season, but I wouldn’t call him an ace, even though he was brilliant in game 163 vs. Chicago.

The Bench

The Rockies are deep. They have been all season. You saw it in the Wild Card game, you saw it with Ryan McMahon against the Dodgers in August, you saw it all year with Gerardo Parra, and you saw it at the end of the year with Matt Holliday.

The NLDS roster was announced and the Rockies are carrying Gerardo Parra, Matt Holliday, Garrett Hampson, and Ryan McMahon on their bench and according to baseball reference, they’ve hit a collective .270 with 12 home runs and 82 RBI this season. A lot of that is from Parra, who has also been one of the leagues most premier pinch-hitters this season, but we know McMahon has had his big moments as well as Holliday, and Hampson has been a very nice surprise to this 2018 bunch.

Plus adding Tony Wolters‘ defense, and his huge confidence boost from Tuesday night makes the Rockies bench one that few teams have.

The Brewers shouldn’t be overlooked, however. They have some of the best pinch hitting stats on any team in baseball this season too. They were edged out by the Rockies in a multitude of categories, but still sat towards the top of the league in pinch-hit average, and hits.

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Only ahead of Colorado in hits because they had more at-bats. Milwaukee’s bench has hit for virtually no average, and they even left their scariest power guy off the NLDS roster in Eric Thames. Curtis Granderson is the Brewers’ match to Holliday, but Granderson hasn’t done much since coming over in August.

Hernán Pérez is the most potent off the Brew Crew bench, but even he only got on base at a .290 clip. The  Rockies pitching shut down the Cubs bench in the Wild Card game, and I expect the Rockies ‘pen to be able to contain Milwaukee’s bench better than Milwaukee will contain Colorado’s.

Final Thoughts

Milwaukee has a very good baseball team, they deserve to be in the playoffs. They are coming in to the game winners of eight in a row, and have the MVP of the National League, in my opinion, in Christian Yelich.

But the Rockies have been playing well as of late too, and last I checked they have some pretty darn good players up and down the board who can do some damage against a below average Brewers starting pitching staff.

The Rockies have an excellent shot at advancing here in 2018, and if they play their game they can beat anybody.