5 Reasons why you shouldn’t be surprised that the Colorado Rockies beat the Cubs

Many people, particularly in the national media and outside of Denver, expected the Chicago Cubs to take the Colorado Rockies to the bank on Tuesday evening but the Rockies defeated the Cubs 2-1 in 13 innings, the longest winner-take-all game in Major League Baseball history. However, if you look at some of the numbers, the Rockies victory shouldn’t have been all that surprising.

The Chicago Cubs were one of the best teams in all of baseball and they still are. In fact, some would venture to say that they are better than the Colorado Rockies and if you just look at the wins and losses, that would be correct.

Be that as it may, there are some things that, if you dive into the numbers, particularly the numbers down the stretch that point to why the Rockies were the team that should have won Tuesday’s game.

The Cubs collapse

At the end of play on September 1, the Chicago Cubs had a 4.5 game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central as well as for the best record in the National League. They had a five game lead on the Milwaukee Brewers as well.

But they choked down the stretch.

After winning two against the Phillies to start the month, the Cubs went to Milwaukee and lost two of three to the Brew Crew. They then went to Washington Nationals, who had long been dead in the hunt for a playoff spot and lost two of four (including a make up game for a rainout the following week).

They then went home to lose two of three to the Brewers again. They did win two of three against teams like the Reds, DBacks in Arizona, and the White Sox. They went to Pittsburgh to split against the Pirates (and one of the two wins was a walkoff for the Cubs) but the Brewers were in control of their destiny since they had gone 4-2 in the month against the Cubs.

Overall, the Cubs went 16-12 in September (their worst record for a month since they went 16-12 in June) but the Brewers stepped up and went 19-7.

The battle of the bullpens

In the month of September (and the one regular season game that they had in October in Game 163), the Chicago Cubs bullpen faltered.

When it mattered the most, the Chicago Cubs bullpen arguably had their worst month (plus a day) of the season. They had an ERA of 3.98, compared to 3.30 in August, with 19 more walks compared to August (in only 2 more innings). Overall, their WHIP was 1.418 in September and October regular season games.

Compare that to the Rockies bullpen. The Rockies bullpen finally stepped up after they struggled, as a collective group, all season.

In 11 1/3 more innings in September and October, they allowed 11 fewer earned runs and 18 fewer total runs than they did in August. That was good enough for the Rockies bullpen ERA to drop from 4.52 in August to their best ERA on the season, 2.98. If that were to be for the full season, that ERA would have been the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball.

Mind you, this is when the Rockies bullpen stalwart Adam Ottavino struggled down the stretch in preventing runs. In September (13 appearances), his ERA was 4.26. If you look at his last 15 appearances of the regular season, that ERA was 5.65 (not a typo).

Wade Davis allowed one run in 11 innings in September (0.82 ERA) and he only allowed five hits. In fact, he only allowed one run after August 9 (0.50 ERA in 18 appearances).

In the Wild Card game, the Rockies bullpen went 5 1/3 innings while only allowing two hits and one run. In the final 4 1/3 innings after Ottavino, Davis, Seunghwan Oh, Chris Rusin, and Scott Oberg combined to allow zero hits, zero runs, and three walks.

In other words, the other people in the Rockies bullpen stepped up down the stretch and the Cubs bullpen did not.

The Cubs offense was flat to end the regular season

The Cubs might be vaunted for their offense but the simple fact of the matter is they didn’t show up for August, September, or October.

From March through July 31st, they averaged exactly five runs per game. They allowed 4.1 runs per game.

In August, September, and October, they also averaged 4 runs per game. They allowed 3.9 runs per game

In September and October, the Cubs averaged exactly 4 runs per game. They allowed 3.7 runs per game.

Obviously, with the margins being closer, you can see why the team ended up losing more down the stretch.

They also saw most of their other offensive numbers drop drastically.

Sure, they did experience injuries to Kris Bryant and others but that isn’t any excuse. The Rockies had two of their best offensive players in Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story go down (and Nolan isn’t fully recovered yet, mind you) and they still prevailed in the game.

Arenado had a sac fly in the first to score the Rockies first run and Trevor Story was the guy who scored on Tony Wolters hit to get the Rockies second run in the 13th. Combined, they went 4-for-11 in the Wild Card game.

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Kyle Freeland

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Cubs lost was the buzzsaw that has been Kyle Freeland.

We all know how dominant he has been all season long for the Rockies but let’s look at what the numbers are saying for the Rockies ace.

Overall, on the season, he went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA of 33 starts. He also had a 1.245 WHIP and he averaged nearly 6 1/3 innings per start as he had north of 200 innings this, his sophomore campaign.

He was even more dominant down the stretch for the Rockies as he did not go less than six innings in any start after his start on August 1 (11 starts). He went 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA with a WHIP of 1.194 while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings (he averaged 7.7 on the season) with a .234/.297/.326 opponent slash line.

Most importantly, though, the Rockies won ten of those eleven starts.

On Tuesday, he went 6 2/3 innings allowing only 4 hits, one walk, and zero runs. Some, including myself, questioned Bud Black pulling him after only 82 pitches but now that the Rockies won, it looks great because Freeland wasn’t stretched out to the max. In his 33 regular season starts, he only threw less than 82 pitches in two of those starts.

It could prove to be important in Game 3 against Milwaukee in the Rockies first playoff game at home since 2009.