Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story’s potentially historic season

DENVER, CO - JULY 10: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies adjusts his cap while heading to the field prior to the start of the fourth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on July 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - JULY 10: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies adjusts his cap while heading to the field prior to the start of the fourth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on July 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
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All-Stars are a rare breed. Few accomplished baseball players make it to the point where even one or two of their skills are considered elite enough within the game’s upper echelon to get recognition from colleagues, coaches or fans that earns them the elusive title of All-Star.

But there’s an even rarer breed within the All-Star family: The evasive five-tool player. There are roughly 10 players in baseball who can hit for contact, power, run, play defense and throw. One of them is the shortstop for the Colorado Rockies.

We all know about Trevor Story‘s power, as he set rookie records en route to his 27 home runs in 2016. We soon learned about his sparkling defense combined with his cannon of an arm. In 2017, he was second among shortstops in the National League in range factor per nine innings, assists, fielding percentage and sixth among all players in the NL in defensive WAR. Early in 2018, we became privy to his near-elite speed as he’s now jumped to seventh in NL in stolen bases.

The last aspect of Story’s tool-shed has arrived … and that’s hitting for contact.

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Story — hitting .295 this season heading into Wednesday’s game against San Francisco — has not only been one of the best power hitters in the game but one its best contact hitters. Currently 12th in the NL in batting average, Story has rocketed his batting average up nearly 70 points.

Our friend Daniel Kramer of MLB.com found part of his rise is due to his feasting of first pitches. Socking a league-leading 21 first-pitch extra-base-hits, this has helped him avoid two-strike counts which, in turn, prevents strikeouts.

Meanwhile, Fangraphs wrote about the down stream consequences of this earlier this week, showing his dropped K rate and rising contact rate, of which has seen him strikeout nearly 9 percent less this year than last and make contact 7 percent more of the time.

CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 6: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies is congratulated by his teammates after scoring a run during the fourth inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 6, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Colorado defeated Cincinnati 6-3. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 6: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies is congratulated by his teammates after scoring a run during the fourth inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 6, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Colorado defeated Cincinnati 6-3. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

We asked Story about the change that entails more of a mental shift than anything but has revealed itself particularly in Story’s smashing of breaking and off-speed pitches. There, he has seen a more than 100 point increase in xwOBA (excepted weighted On Base Average) than last year.

He’s also still nailing fastballs and is just one of two handfuls of guys who has above-average run values on the six pitches thrown most often in baseball: Four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider, changeup, curveball and cutter.

Everywhere you look, no matter what aspect of the game, Story has improved it.

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“His plate discipline has gotten a lot better, he made strides and this year he’s made more,” catcher Chris Iannetta, who was on the D-Backs last year and now sits a few lockers away from Story, told Rox Pile. “Speed and power speaks for itself and more people are finding out about the speed now. And, defensively, it’s some of the best shortstop defense I’ve seen. His range is incredible, he makes extremely athletic plays and has a cannon.”

Story has only enhanced himself defensively as Inside Edge has him up on almost all types of plays across the board. While his defense isn’t quite at the level of the shortstop before him, the overall play is drawing the comparison to Troy Tulowitzki.

“They’re both outstanding players, at the top of their game when they played in Colorado,” Iannetta said. “Story is still developing into the player he’s going to be. He’s phenomenal defensively and the numbers are great offensively. He’s just gonna keep getting better over the next few years.”

A good September from Story could spell a higher fWAR figure for the season than Tulowitzki has ever amassed in a single year.

“Tulo was such a mentor to me and helped me out so much with the game,” Story said. “He taught me how to work and go about my business. It’s cool to have those comparisons.”

Tulowtizki was on a Hall of Fame pace before injuries derailed his career. And the year Story is having is in line with some of the very best seasons in baseball history.

DENVER, CO – APRIL 7: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies watches the flight of a fourth inning solo homerun against the Atlanta Braves at Coors Field on April 7, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – APRIL 7: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies watches the flight of a fourth inning solo homerun against the Atlanta Braves at Coors Field on April 7, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Story is closing in one becoming just the fifth shortstop in baseball history to have a 30 home run-30 stolen base season. He would be just the third to do so with a .300 batting average and those stats put him in the conversation of the 1998 season pieced together by Alex Rodriguez, given Story most likely will also end up north of 100 RBI.

So how close is Story? He needs two more long balls, five more swipes, eight more runs batted in and in the neighborhood of 33 hits (assuming he has about 100 at-bats left, given the Rockies have 24 more games).

“Very impressive (what he’s doing,)” Bud Black said. “If it were easy to do, all 400 position players would do it. We’ve been saying three hits out of 10 is impressive for years and he’s on the brink of that. I’m really proud of Trev, watching him work over the past year and a half where his average can climb because he’s putting the ball in play.”

It is important to note that both Javy Baez and Manny Machado are closing in on 30-30 seasons as well but Baez has played a ton of second and third base this year. Meanwhile, Machado’s other worldly defense hasn’t translated as well to shortstop and he’s still quite a few stolen bases away.

Since Story’s debut on Opening Day in 2016, only one shortstop in the game has matched his 79 home run output … and that’s Francisco Lindor, who also only has one RBI more than Story (247) to lead MLB shortstops in that span. This means that Story is only rivaled by one shortstop in his power and his ability to drive runs in.

But anyone in the Rockies clubhouse would pump the brakes on that and that’s because his defense mirrors his offense and the primary job of his spot on the field is defense.

His 16 defensive runs saved since debuting in 2016 is third among National League shortstops behind Addison Russell and Brandon Crawford … the last two Gold Glove winners.

“We can identify an offensive player in a lot of ways. Power is something that is dangerous when you’re the opponent because that one swing can change the game,” Black said. “The ability to get on base via the base hit — your batting average, or via the walk — that’s a great skill and he’s getting a little better there. The walks are up, strikeouts are down and his ability to get on base is getting him to being a very solid offensive player. And that’s what you hope from your young players where you’re the type of force where if they don’t throw strikes, you walk. If they do, you do damage with an extra-base hit and he’s getting there. I don’t want to say he’s there. That’s unfair, but he’s made great strides.”

Next. How Bud Black balances managing with his gut and with statistics. dark

Next time you look at Trevor Story, look twice. It’s rare across baseball history to have a shortstop this talented at every aspect of the game. Even considering Colorado’s last guy, Story is special. Given the nature of Story’s unassuming sophomore campaign, 2018 has had an MVP-like twist that’s just a few weeks away from a happy ending.

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