What will the 2019 Colorado Rockies possibly look like?

The 2018 season is entering the home stretch and the Rockies are in the thick of the chase for the NL West. Win or lose, the Colorado Rockies are soon going to be done with the 2018 season and will need to turn their sights to the composition of their roster for 2019 and beyond.

In order to properly evaluate what the future Rockies will look like, we have to look at which players are going to be free agents after this season, which players will be free agents after 2019, and which players they have under team control for the foreseeable future.

The Returning Core

First, let’s look at the players that the Rockies have locked down for the foreseeable future. The good news is that the pitching staff – the perpetual area of need for the Rockies – looks relatively stable for the first time in, oh, I don’t know, forever.

The entire starting rotation of Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, Chad Bettis, and Antonio Senzatela is under contract through at least 2020, if not beyond. This young core has been impressive so far and will (hopefully) continue to improve.

This group is not so good that there isn’t room for an ace-level staff leader, though using free agency to add to the starting staff seems unlikely. David Price, Drew Pomeranz, Patrick Corbin, and Gio Gonzalez are the top starters available, none of which inspires much hope (can you imagine how Gonzalez’s 1.53 WHIP would play at Coors? *Shudder*).

The bullpen also looks to be about as stable as a bullpen can be. Every player that’s thrown a pitch for the Rockies is slated to return, with one notable exception (though it is a big one – more on that later). Despite his recent troubles, Wade Davis is likely to return as the team closer, with Seunghwan Oh, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Chris Rusin, Scott Oberg, Mike Dunn, Harrison Musgrave, Brooks Pounders, and Yency Almonte all under team control through at least 2020.

The Rox will be returning their full catching corps, with Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters both slated to return, with Tom Murphy also aboard for depth. As a unit, these three have complied a dismal -1.2 combined WAR, with Iannetta “leading” the group with a -1.0 WAR. An upgrade here would certainly help the 2019 Rockies, though knowing this front office, any such improvements seem unlikely.

The outfield is relatively stable, anchored by Charlie Blackmon and his $108M contract in center. David Dahl will be back, as will Gerardo Parra, who is signed through the 2019 season. They also young-ish bench pieces Raimel Tapia, Noel Cuevas, and Mike Tauchman, all of whom drank at least a cup or two of coffee in Denver this season.

The infield presents more difficulties, though at least they retain the rights to burgeoning superstar Trevor Story through 2021. For better or worse, Ian Desmond will certainly be back at first, if for no other reason than his salary makes him next to impossible to move. It is at second and third where the Rox have their two biggest questions – questions that may have franchise shaping implications, both in 2019 and 2020.

After posting a solid .835 OPS for AA Hartford this season Rodgers has struggled with his first taste of the AAA level. Despite these struggles, Rodgers is clearly the player that the Rockies would like to see take the job if LeMahieu leaves. The natural shortstop brings a tantalizing combination of contact hitting, power hitting, speed, and arm strength to the field, plus he’s cut down on both his errors and his strikeouts this season.

It’s possible that the team will let DJ walk, bequeathing the position to Rodgers (after a month or so in AAA in order to delay his service clock). Doing so would almost undoubtedly hurt the team in 2019 as Rodgers adjusts to the league, however, it may also save the team tens of millions of dollars – money that could be used to sign a certain other infielder that we’ll discuss soon.

Also, potentially hitting the market is Adam Ottavino, owner of a frisbee slider and the 220 ERA+. As unbelievable as Otto has been this year, it cannot be understated how important he’s been to this club’s success over the last six seasons overall. He’s now fifth all-time in appearances for Rockies pitchers and has even worked his way to 10^th in total strikeouts – a remarkable feat for a middle reliever.

The club has a rare depth in the bullpen, and certainly there will be other relief arms available in the offseason, however none of them are as good as Ottavino, and none of them are Coors Field-tested. Look for the team to do what they can to retain him, however other GM’s have noticed Ottavino by now and his slider is a fit in any team’s bullpen.

Carlos Gonzalez is also a free agent after the season and as painful as this is to admit, he is far less crucial to the team’s overall success. The team has other outfielders, especially lefties, and his loss could more easily be papered over.

That said, he has had a nice rebound season and has provided value in the field, on the plate, and in the clubhouse. Perhaps the team could retain him with another team-friendly one or two-year contract.

The Big Question

The toughest question for the Rockies doesn’t have anything to do with DJ, CarGo, their catching struggles, or even their long-suffering pitching staff. Instead, the franchise-defining decision that awaits them is what to do with the best third baseman in franchise history.

Nolan Arenado is scheduled to hit free agency for the first time following the 2019 season. By that time he could have as many as seven Gold Gloves on his resume and, if the writers vote like they should this offseason, at least one MVP. He is both the best offensive and defensive third basemen in the game, and potentially the best defender at third in the history of baseball. The exact figure that Arenado will command is certainly debatable, but it is bound to be one of the largest contracts in the game, potentially reaching $30M+ per year.

The price tag alone may make him a hard signing for the small-market Rockies, who already have $70M committed to Blackmon, Desmond, Davis, McGee, and Shaw alone in 2020. Even if the Rockies could swing cash though, there is still the possibility that money alone won’t be enough to keep the greatest home-grown Rockie in purple and black.

Nolan Arenado is one of the most competitive players in Major League Baseball, which puts him high in the running for most competitive human on the planet. He’s made no secret of the fact that winning a World Series is his highest motivating factor, and it remains to be seen if he believes that the Rockies are capable of getting him to that point.

For their part, the Rockies are trying desperately to prove to Arenado that they’re legitimate contenders. They’ve grown remarkably over the last few years and are currently enjoying one of the more successful runs in team history. In the Rockies ideal world they finish the season strong, prove to Nolan that he can win here, and get an extension worked out this offseason.

Arenado (and his agents, the Wasserman Group), however, may not even be willing to talk about an extension, choosing instead to invite the feeding frenzy that his free agency would bring. If a long-term contract can’t be worked out this winter, then the team’s best option may be to trade Arenado before the season starts.

As hard as it was to write that sentence, as painful as the thought of Arenado in another uniform is to contemplate, it would also be devastating to lose an asset of his value for nothing.

The most obvious point of comparison here is the Manny Machado saga that played out over the last year or two. The Orioles had one of the top assets in baseball last off season, however against all logic they decided to keep a player that they knew they could not re-sign and ultimately had to sell him mid-season for a package of second-tier prospects – pennies on the dollar compared to what they were being offered in the offseason.

Losing Nolan would be a devastating emotional blow to the fanbase and could only hurt the product on the field in the short run. It may damage the team’s ability to put together what could be four straight winning seasons – something that has never been done in club history.

On the other hand, if he’s traded during the offseason then the package of prospects that an asset like Arenado could return may be enough to fuel a new generation of core Rockies. It is a brutally hard decision for General Manager Jeff Bridich and the team’s ownership and one that will decide how his tenure in Denver is remembered.

Conclusion

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• Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon out for the season
• Colorado Rockies: Injuries shift look of roster ahead of Dodgers series
• Colorado Rockies: Has Sean Bouchard earned a second look in 2023?

Amidst the uncertainty of predicting the 2019 team, there are a few things that we can count on. Chuck Nazty will be back patrolling the outfield grass and Trevor Story will still be holding down shortstop. For maybe the first time in franchise history we’ll be returning our top six starting pitchers and the vast majority of our bullpen arms.

We may, however, be saying goodbye to some of our franchise’s favorite faces. CarGo and DJ were both named in this season’s Top 25 Rockies list and have been an integral part of the culture of the team for years. Ottavino has the best slider that any Rockie has ever thrown. The loss of any one of them would hurt, let alone the pain of replacing all three.

But no good-bye would hurt worse than watching Nolan go. He’s a homegrown superstar that is just now starting to get the recognition that he’s deserved, and we may be forced to trade him away for the long-term good of the ballclub.

The only thing that is certain is that the 2018-19 offseason will not just decide next year’s team, it will determine if this era of Rockies baseball continues or if it is time for a new era to begin.