Colorado Rockies: Is their 2018 season like their 2008 season?
In 2007, the Colorado Rockies had their best season in the young history of their franchise as they were the champions of the National League. In 2018, the Colorado Rockies won the second National League Wild Card spot but they were eliminated in the NL Wild Card game. After both of each of those playoff seasons, they have fallen flat in the first half of the season but, when taking a closer look, are the teams really that similar?
It is a phenomena that has been bandied about on social media and elsewhere (for good reason): Are the 2018 and 2008 Rockies, essentially the same?
On the surface, you may say yes. After all, they are/were two teams that made the playoffs the previous season, they had a lot of expectations entering the following season, and both (at least thus far for the 2018 Rockies) have not played as they are capable of.
There’s a term that is used a lot when talking about playoff teams. It is known as the “hangover.” Playing a longer season than the regular season can take a toll on players because a) they are playing up to 20 games more; b) up to 20 games that are under extreme scrutiny from local media and fans as well as nationally; and c) it cuts into their offseason routine.
For the 2007 Rockies, this is part of the reason why they were flat in 2008. The regular season, in 2007, would have ended on September 30 regularly but with playing game 163 against the Padres, had they lost that game, they would have been done on October 1. However, with winning the game and getting all the way to the World Series, their final game was played on October 28, a full month later.
This was, obviously, much different in 2017 into 2018 as their season ended three days after the teams who didn’t make the playoffs. Obviously, the pressure of the game got to the Rockies as they lost the game to the Arizona Diamondbacks and, obviously, the loss was a huge one, especially with Jon Gray, who was just optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque, not being able to get out of the 2nd inning. However, due to it being nearly one tenth of the duration that the 2007 Rockies were, the 2018 bunch obviously did not have as much of an opportunity to have a “hangover,” so I think that can be largely ruled out
However, the expectations for both teams were raised and in 2008, they did not live up to expectations and in 2018 thus far, they also haven’t.
From a stat standpoint, let’s see how similar the 2008 and 2018 teams actually are.
In 2018, in the 85 games they have played thus far, the Rockies offense has an offensive slash line of .251/.317/.420. They have also averaged 4.7 runs per game and have a averaged 8.8 strikeouts per game. For their slash line, those numbers rank fifth, eighth, and fourth in the National League. They are third in runs but, with playing half of their games in Coors Field, if you adjust it, they have a wRC+ of 83 and an OPS+ of 85 (100 is league average on both).
When you look at those, there are only three teams that are worse than the Rockies: the Kansas City Royals (who are on pace to go 48-114), the Padres, and the Diamondbacks).
This is how they have looked month by month entering play on July 3.
Split | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April/March | 115 | 218 | 38 | 5 | 34 | 110 | 102 | 277 | .223 | .300 | .376 | .676 | .274 |
May | 120 | 232 | 39 | 8 | 34 | 115 | 85 | 219 | .258 | .324 | .432 | .757 | .304 |
June | 153 | 256 | 56 | 5 | 36 | 148 | 71 | 237 | .272 | .328 | .457 | .785 | .325 |
July | 9 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 16 | .275 | .329 | .377 | .706 | .340 |
For comparison, in 2017, the Rockies had a slash line of .268/.327/.428. They ended up finishing their season with a .273/.338/.444, which ranked first, first, and third in the NL. They had a 90 OPS+.
In 2008, in their first 85 games, they had an offensive slash line of .260/.331/.406, which is very comparable to the 2018 Rockies. In fact, looking at OPS, it was .736. In 2018, it is .738. In 2008, however, they only scored 4.2 runs per game. They finished with a .263/.336/.415 slash line, which was sixth, fifth, and seventh in the NL, and an OPS+ of 89.
Here’s a look at their month-by-month stats overall in 2008.
Split | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April/March | 114 | 251 | 62 | 5 | 21 | 108 | 106 | 199 | .248 | .324 | .381 | .705 | .289 |
May | 123 | 249 | 53 | 7 | 23 | 119 | 90 | 187 | .264 | .330 | .408 | .738 | .304 |
June | 112 | 244 | 51 | 4 | 27 | 109 | 87 | 197 | .271 | .338 | .426 | .763 | .318 |
July | 163 | 278 | 66 | 5 | 36 | 154 | 99 | 207 | .299 | .371 | .496 | .867 | .347 |
August | 134 | 249 | 42 | 3 | 28 | 126 | 119 | 216 | .259 | .345 | .397 | .741 | .306 |
Sept/Oct | 101 | 191 | 36 | 4 | 25 | 98 | 69 | 203 | .237 | .303 | .384 | .687 | .284 |
Again, for comparison, the 2007 Rockies, in their first 85 games, hit .274/.349/.418 and they averaged 4.8 runs per game with only 6.8 strikeouts per game. They finished with a .280/.354/.437 slash, which was first, first, and fourth in the NL. Their OPS+ was 98.
The 2018 Rockies pitching staff, as you probably know, has been…inconsistent, to put it nicely. They have an ERA of 4.96 collectively. The starters, however, have a 4.69 ERA compared to the not-so “super” bullpen’s ERA of 5.52. Overall, the staff was ok in March and April, better in May, and it just completely fell apart in June.
Split | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | SO9 | SO/W |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April/March | 15 | 15 | .500 | 4.52 | 128 | 30 | 10 | 263.0 | 242 | 140 | 132 | 29 | 107 | 256 | 1.327 | 8.8 | 2.39 |
May | 15 | 11 | .577 | 4.27 | 103 | 26 | 9 | 234.0 | 231 | 112 | 111 | 32 | 78 | 207 | 1.321 | 8.0 | 2.65 |
June | 11 | 16 | .407 | 6.20 | 115 | 27 | 7 | 241.0 | 270 | 180 | 166 | 41 | 107 | 247 | 1.564 | 9.2 | 2.31 |
July | 1 | 1 | .500 | 3.71 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17.0 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1.176 | 6.4 | 3.00 |
April/Mar,GS | 8 | 12 | .400 | 4.27 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 158.0 | 149 | 81 | 75 | 18 | 65 | 145 | 1.354 | 8.3 | 2.23 |
May,GS | 13 | 6 | .684 | 4.39 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 151.2 | 158 | 75 | 74 | 20 | 43 | 130 | 1.325 | 7.7 | 3.02 |
June,GS | 9 | 7 | .563 | 5.37 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 157.2 | 167 | 96 | 94 | 29 | 55 | 170 | 1.408 | 9.7 | 3.09 |
July,GS | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.60 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.800 | 4.5 | 1.67 |
April/Mar,GR | 7 | 3 | .700 | 4.89 | 98 | 0 | 10 | 105.0 | 93 | 59 | 57 | 11 | 42 | 111 | 1.286 | 9.5 | 2.64 |
May,GR | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4.04 | 77 | 0 | 9 | 82.1 | 73 | 37 | 37 | 12 | 35 | 77 | 1.312 | 8.4 | 2.20 |
June,GR | 2 | 9 | .182 | 7.78 | 88 | 0 | 7 | 83.1 | 103 | 84 | 72 | 12 | 52 | 77 | 1.860 | 8.3 | 1.48 |
July,GR | 0 | 1 | .000 | 3.86 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7.0 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1.714 | 9.0 | 7.00 |
You can see it even further when you see their opponents slash line.
Split | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SO/W | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April/March | 989 | 140 | 242 | 51 | 9 | 29 | 107 | 256 | 2.39 | .245 | .323 | .402 | .725 | .300 |
May | 894 | 112 | 231 | 42 | 8 | 32 | 78 | 207 | 2.65 | .258 | .322 | .431 | .752 | .301 |
June | 951 | 180 | 270 | 52 | 10 | 41 | 107 | 247 | 2.31 | .284 | .358 | .489 | .847 | .339 |
July | 63 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.00 | .254 | .319 | .429 | .747 | .286 |
April/Mar,GS | 598 | 81 | 149 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 65 | 145 | 2.23 | .249 | .325 | .416 | .742 | .299 |
May,GS | 591 | 75 | 158 | 31 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 130 | 3.02 | .267 | .319 | .435 | .754 | .309 |
June,GS | 613 | 96 | 167 | 28 | 3 | 29 | 55 | 170 | 3.09 | .272 | .331 | .470 | .801 | .327 |
July,GS | 35 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1.67 | .143 | .250 | .286 | .536 | .138 |
April/Mar,GR | 391 | 59 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 111 | 2.64 | .238 | .319 | .381 | .700 | .301 |
May,GR | 303 | 37 | 73 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 77 | 2.20 | .241 | .326 | .422 | .748 | .285 |
June,GR | 338 | 84 | 103 | 24 | 7 | 12 | 52 | 77 | 1.48 | .305 | .403 | .524 | .927 | .358 |
July,GR | 28 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7.00 | .393 | .414 | .607 | 1.021 | .500 |
For comparison, this is how it looked prior to the All-Star break in 2017 (91 games).
Split | G | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st Half | 1256 | 461 | 840 | 150 | 21 | 104 | 442 | 33 | 23 | 259 | 799 | .269 | .328 | .430 | .758 | .329 |
In 2008, they had an ERA of 4.72 and an opponent slash line that was inconsistent too. This is a little bit larger of a sample size as this runs to the All-Star break (96 games).
Split | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SO/W | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st Half | 507 | 924 | 193 | 30 | 96 | 334 | 581 | 1.74 | .278 | .347 | .440 | .788 | .309 |
As you can see, the month that they really fell apart was the month of May.
Split | W | L | W-L% | ERA | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | SO9 | SO/W |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April/March | 11 | 17 | .393 | 4.47 | 260 | 144 | 130 | 25 | 124 | 165 | 1.466 | 5.7 | 1.33 |
May | 9 | 19 | .321 | 5.67 | 283 | 165 | 155 | 31 | 102 | 180 | 1.565 | 6.6 | 1.76 |
June | 12 | 15 | .444 | 4.34 | 251 | 123 | 113 | 25 | 69 | 150 | 1.366 | 5.8 | 2.17 |
July | 17 | 10 | .630 | 5.01 | 247 | 137 | 132 | 21 | 85 | 169 | 1.401 | 6.4 | 1.99 |
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Final Thoughts
So, in some ways, the 2008 and 2018 Rockies are similar (inconsistency offense and pitching staff both that has fallen flat of expectations). However, in many ways, the 2018 team is actually doing better.
After all, the 2018 team, through 85 games, is 42-43, and in 4th place in the NL West but only five games back of the division leading Diamondbacks and only 4.5 back in the second Wild Card.
The 2008 team, through 85 games, was seventeen games under .500 at 34-51 and also in 4th place.
However, they were eight games back of the division leading Diamondbacks, who only had a record of 42-43 in an obviously very weak division as the Dodgers ended up winning the division with 84 wins.