Colorado Rockies: Three sources of optimism/concern heading into June

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DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 17: Chris Rusin #52 of the Colorado Rockies pitches during a regular season MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and the visiting San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 17, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Russell Lansford/Getty Images) /

After a seemingly endless offseason (made even longer by the Broncos’ irrelevance in football last year), baseball season is already more than a third of the way to its completion. The proverbial dead horse has been thoroughly beaten in Denver concerning the curious season taking shape for the Colorado Rockies. Despite offensive numbers that are frankly hard to look at through the first two months, the Rockies are seated exactly where they want to be … at the head of the National League West table.

While it can certainly be argued that the Rockies’ lead in the West should be larger, it’s hard (for most of us, anyway) to complain about being the three seed in the National League heading into June.

Today, I’ll be diving into a couple of reasons I’m as optimistic as ever heading into the middle third of the year, as well as a thing or two that make me nervous about the direction the team is headed. I like to finish positive, so I’ll start with the concerns.

Concerns

Middle/Long relief

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While the back end of the bullpen has been rock solid with the addition of closer Wade Davis and the re-emergence of nasty right hander Adam Ottavino, everyone else has been extremely hit and miss.

As an example, raise your hand if, before the season, you guessed that Brooks Pounders and Harrison Musgrave would have higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers on June 1 than Jake McGee, Scott Oberg, Mike Dunn, Bryan Shaw and Chris Rusin. That’s not a knock on Pounders and Musgrave — we could consider their success a positive in and of itself — but the Rockies need their regulars in the pen to get back to 2017 form if they want to be successful as a club long-term.

Is the NL West a sleeping dragon?

You’re never upset to be in first place, but something about the NL West makes me … uneasy.

It appeared early on in the year that the DBacks had the inside track to run away with the division and be the pace car of the race. Losing 14 of 16, however, ended those ideas quickly as the snakes tumbled back down to the pack.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, seem to be having the opposite season. They started off slowly and, with the return of Justin Turner, seem to be hitting their stride. The Rockies and Giants have both been pretty consistent in their successes and failures to this point.

So who is going to be the one to catch fire and run away with it? You have to think that the winner of this division will be the one who roars out to the front of the pack in this middle third of the season, because right now, it’s anybody’s ballgame. Let’s make it us this time, and let’s do it now while everyone is still middling around .500.

First-Inning woes

It comes as no surprise to those who watch all the games that the first inning is often a stomach-clenching affair for the Rockies. Opponents in the first inning are hitting .304 with a .912 OPS. That’s ugly. Contrast that to the second inning, just 15-20 minutes later, where opponents are hitting .210 with a .533 OPS.

Playing from ahead is extremely important for any team, but especially a team who plays at Coors Field. Falling behind in the first inning consistently forces Colorado pitchers to nibble and hitters to try to do too much. If the Rockies can eliminate the first inning woes and play from ahead more often, the win/loss record will almost surely improve as well.

DENVER, CO – MAY 28: Chris Iannetta #22 of the Colorado Rockies receives an ice bath from Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies after hitting a 10th inning walk-off single against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on May 28, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Reasons for Optimism

Fashionably Late, the Bats (May) Have Arrived

Nothing has been more dissected and analyzed than the Rockies offensive struggles this year. While I was one of the very few people out there willing to die on the “Have faith in Ian Desmond/Carlos Gonzalez” hill, even I was starting to look at this offense and wonder if it could hit the broad side of a barn. Well, just about the time I was losing hope, the bats appear to have woken up.

I’m not saying everyone’s numbers will bounce all the way back to where they were in previous seasons, but I feel safe in saying that the “Last in all of baseball”-type numbers are on the up and up. Not only have the struggling starters like Desmond, CarGo and Trevor Story begun barreling more baseballs, but the role players like David Dahl, Noel Cuevas and Ryan McMahon appear to be much more comfortable at the plate as well of late.

Seven-inning ballgames

As mentioned earlier, no unit has been more reliable this year than the back-end of the bullpen. Adam Ottavino in the eighth and Wade Davis in the ninth have become a source of comfort in a year FULL of close games.

The Rockies have a 2.67 ERA in the eighth inning this year, a 2.85 ERA in the ninth and a 1.50 ERA in extra innings. Making it all the more impressive is knowing roughly half the games have come at altitude with the massive Coors Field outfield. A plus set-up man combined with a plus closer creates an atmosphere where if the Rockies lead after seven, you can nearly take the money to the bank. It feels like the game is in good hands, and that’s a good thing to have in your back pocket.

The Schedule

The Rockies have played a road-heavy schedule thus far. As of this writing, the Rockies have 58 home games remaining and just 49 road games. If Colorado continue its current pace on the road, they should go about 29-20 in those games. If the Rockies finish the home schedule on last year’s pace (since they are still below .500 this year at home), we’re looking at a 33-25 finish at home.

Adding those records to the current 30-25 overall record, the Rockies would finish with a final record of 92-70, five games better than last year.

Next: Is Hanley Ramirez a potential fit with the Rockies?

All of this is just projecting obviously, but you can see the path the Rockies can take to achieve everything they set out to achieve, and that’s a pretty good way to start the month of June.

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