Colorado Rockies: Jon Gray hasn’t just been unlucky, he has a problem

Gray’s off-speed stuff is getting spit on more and more.

What do I mean by that? Looking at the whiff rates, Gray is actually generating more whiffs on his slider and curveball, up 3 and 6 percent, respectively. That’s great.

The average launch angle on his curve moving from 13 to 25 degrees is not.

Part of that is him throwing it lower in the zone and being more effective with it. Part of it is because the pitch has become more predictable.

That’s on the same note of the average exit velocity on his slider has moved from 78 mph to 87 mph.

It all falls into place when Gray is ahead of batters.

He is generating less chases on his off-speed stuff.

In 2018, batters are only swinging at 38.6 percent of his off-speed stuff outside the zone when he is ahead in counts. Compare that to 2017 where the rate was 46.3 percent. That’s a massive jump.

Further, he’s only generating swings and misses 72 percent of the time off of those pitches, which is down 5 percent.

Gray’s off-speed stuff is being chased less and it’s being hit harder or higher than before.

Overall he’s throwing more strikes … but it’s been easier to attack because of the sequencing. He’s throwing too many fastballs in the zone or missing his spot entirely. Players are spitting on his off-speed stuff and hunting his fastball, which has become a more hitable pitch. His mistakes have therefore compounded and, when he does hang a breaking ball, it has been crushed.

Next: Is Hanley Ramirez a fit with the Rockies?

So does Jon Gray have some luck issues? Sure, the balls being hit into play are finding holes, but look deeper and they should probably be going further and for more bases than one. Gray has some problems. All of it seems fixable and, on Friday, he did for a few innings.