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Colorado Rockies: How the National League West can be won

By Colin Gaiser |
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 25: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates his solo homerun in front of Yasmani Grandal #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to take a 3-2 lead during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on September 25, 2016 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 25: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates his solo homerun in front of Yasmani Grandal #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to take a 3-2 lead during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on September 25, 2016 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
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Don’t look now, but the Colorado Rockies are just 2 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West.

This seems impossible for a team that is 7-11 at home and playing a first baseman who could have the worst season in the history of baseball. But the Rockies are finding ways to win on the road (you can thank the starting pitchers for that), and are 23-20 just over a quarter of the way through the season.

The rest of the NL West is sputtering along with the Rockies.

After sprinting out the gates with nine consecutive series victories, the Diamondbacks are suddenly hapless at the plate. In the month of May, while going 5-9, they are slashing an unsightly .194/.270/.301 as a team (and their 56 wRC+ is last in baseball by far). Paul Goldschmidt is having a nightmare start to his season. And early MVP-candidate A.J. Pollock is expected to miss four to eight weeks with a fractured thumb.

Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium must be haunted, because this team is cursed. In addition to the unfortunate injuries to Justin Turner, Corey Seager and Clayton Kershaw, the offense has been nearly as putrid as the Diamondbacks’.

Looking at the San Francisco Giants, who the Rockies will face starting tomorrow, have also been hit by the injury bug as Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, and their two best starting pitchers (Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto) have been on the disabled list. Bumgarner is hoping to make his 2018 debut by the end of May and Cueto has right elbow inflammation that will likely sideline him to the All-Star game.

WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 12: Manager Bud Black #10 of the Colorado Rockies throws batting practice before a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 12, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 12: Manager Bud Black #10 of the Colorado Rockies throws batting practice before a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 12, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

The NL West is suddenly up for grabs. According to the FanGraphs Playoff Odds, the NL West winner is projected to have the fewest wins of any other MLB division winner. FanGraphs projects the Diamondbacks to take the division in a near toss-up with the Dodgers at around 84-85 wins, followed by the Rockies with approximately 82 wins. They have the Giants at around 80 wins and the San Diego Padres, bringing up the rear, at around 70 wins. While these projections will change depending on how the teams do, the last time the NL West was this tightly contested was in 2008, when the Dodgers led the division with 84 wins.

The Rockies are in a legitimate position to chase after a division title, right as they enter a pivotal stretch of games. 16 of the next 22 games are against NL West opponents. After seven road games against the Dodgers and the Giants, the Rockies will play nine games at Coors Field against the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks (the home-stand only broken up by a trip to Cincinnati).

I hope Jeff Bridich and Bud Black are aware of the stakes, because the Rockies’ offensive struggles will only continue if they refuse to make changes to the lineup.

DENVER, CO – MAY 09: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies hits a double in the third inning against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Coors Field on May 9, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – MAY 09: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies hits a double in the third inning against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Coors Field on May 9, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Fixing the offense

If lineup construction is a puzzle, watching the front office set the lineups is like watching someone fumble clumsily with a Rubik’s Cube, only to get further and further from the solution.

A few tweaks would get them closer to solving the puzzle, at the very least.

First, David Dahl needs to play every day. He’d already proven himself at the Major League level — in 237 plate appearances in 2016, he slashed .319/.359/.500 with 113 wRC+. Yet he is being forced into a platoon role. He was out of the lineup against left-handed pitcher Joey Lucchesi on May 14, the day after breaking up left-handed Freddy Peralta‘s no-hitter and hitting a home run off left-handed reliever Dan Jennings in a 7-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Dahl is slashing .269/.300/.358 in 70 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Since 2016, Carlos Gonzalez is slashing .238/.266/.397 in 354 plate appearances against lefties. It makes no sense to give Gonzalez an everyday role in right field while platooning Dahl. Particularly in 2018, CarGo is slashing a .182/.229/.182 in 33 at bats thus far.

And while Gonzalez makes the occasional Statcast gem, he is still a league average outfielder, at best, as he is at -1 defensive runs saved.

PHOENIX, AZ – OCTOBER 04: Raimel Tapia. Getty Images.
PHOENIX, AZ – OCTOBER 04: Raimel Tapia. Getty Images. /

More from Rox Pile

Beyond Dahl, the pieces for a productive offensive lineup are there. As fellow Rox Pile contributor Olivia Greene pointed out in her May 12 piece, “The Colorado Rockies have what it takes to be a winning team.”

Guys like Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia and Tom Murphy have nothing left to prove in AAA. McMahon made the opening-day roster but never received consistent playing time, so is raking in the Pacific Coast League instead (he hit two home runs last night using Mike Tauchman‘s bat). Murphy is .286/.358/.622 with 10 home runs.

Meanwhile, Pat Valaika — who is slashing an abysmal .115/.194/.164 over 68 plate appearances — has no business being on a major league roster right now. I don’t care how much utility he has as an infielder, it’s baffling to see him playing instead of McMahon.

Tapia deserves another shot with the Rockies. Yes, that’s yet another left-handed bat in the outfield, but he provided the offense with a much-needed boost in 2017. He should get another chance to ignite this tepid lineup.

Any one of these guys could help fill this lineup’s black hole — the fifth spot. The Rockies’ fifth batter is batting dead last in nearly every offensive category, slashing .152/.218/.285. This is suffocating rallies. Put one of the young guys in this spot — Dahl, McMahon, Tapia, etc. — and see what happens. If we have to play Ian Desmond, bat him eighth.

Next: Remembering the day Jordan Lyles almost no-hit the Colorado Rockies

I hate to be hyperbolic, but the next month will probably make or break the Colorado Rockies’ 2018 campaign. We have the pieces for a title run. It just depends on if the front office can — or is willing to — solve the puzzle.

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