Seven bold predictions for the National League West in 2018

Baseball season is almost here and fans of the National League West’s Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks all believe their teams will be improved. Some also believe their teams have not only a legitimate chance to make the postseason but also do some real damage when they get there.

While three teams (Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles) made the postseason last year, this year could be even tougher for those teams to all make it back to meaningful play in October. San Francisco and San Diego both improved in the offseason with free agent acquisitions, meaning the National League West will not only be tougher this year but could very well be the toughest division, top to bottom, in all of baseball.

So what will happen during the 2018 season in the National League West? I looked into my crystal ball, asked some colleagues in the industry for their thoughts and gathered some information during my recent spring training trip to Arizona (where all five NL West teams spend their spring).

With that in mind, here are seven bold predictions for the National League West this season. Feel free to add your thoughts in the comments section below!

Let’s start with the big one. Which teams will make the postseason in 2018? I believe only the Dodgers will make it out of the National League West and into the NLDS.

So what happens to Colorado and Arizona? I don’t believe either of those teams did enough in the offseason to make an impact while teams like Milwaukee and San Francisco did more to add to their lineups.

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The National League West will be a feeding frenzy this year, with no team able to separate itself from the pack because of the overall wealth of talent in the division. With every team beating every other team and no dominance established, only the division winner (Los Angeles) will be move on.

Looking at Colorado’s roster and the position players on it from last season and comparing to this season, only Chris Iannetta is different. That’s not enough of an impact to make a difference for a team that finished with a 0.0 WAR outside of Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu and Charlie Blackmon last season.

Arizona’s offense will be impacted by the loss of J.D. Martinez. There’s no question about it. There are also some questions about Zack Greinke and his effectiveness (and health) heading into the season.

If I were to predict the National League postseason, I think Milwaukee and St. Louis face off in the Wild Card while Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington win the divisions.

Speaking of the Dodgers, I will predict that the Justin Turner injury will not impact the Dodgers as much as people might believe.

Turner went down on Monday night with a broken wrist after being hit by a pitch in a spring training game. It’s unknown exactly how long the All-Star third baseman will be out of action. However, he won’t need surgery, which is the best-case scenario right now for Los Angeles.

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The 33-year-old Turner batted .322 with 21 homers and 71 RBI last season. He also did that in 130 games after suffering a hamstring injury in May. The Dodgers survived for a stretch without Turner last season. They will again this season as well.

Los Angeles has plenty of depth in their lineup to overcome such an injury. And it may not be the only injury to worry about when it comes to the Dodgers. Corey Seager’s elbow remains a question mark that will need to be examined.

However, it will take a lot of injuries for the Dodgers to fall from the top of the National League West. Money makes a difference and this team is built to contend, even with a star player going out of the lineup.

Will the Dodgers miss Turner? Absolutely. Will the Dodgers miss the playoffs because of his absence. No way.

My next bold prediction takes us to San Diego. I believe the first season of the Eric Hosmer experiment in San Diego won’t produce the kind of results the Padres were hoping for when they inked him to an eight-year contract in the $144 million neighborhood.

Colorado Rockies

Petco Park and Hosmer aren’t made for each other. It’s that simple. A pitcher’s park and a hitter who has never been known for his power (back-to-back seasons of 25 home runs mark his career high in the category). In fact, Hosmer is very much a ground ball hitter. As this article points out, since his MLB debut, Hosmer in among the league leaders in grounders.

The Padres are betting on Hosmer being a player who can eventually take the team to the playoffs. The 28-year-old has proven he can do that with the Kansas City Royals. However, the supporting cast in Kansas City was much stronger and deeper than the team that will be alongside Hosmer in San Diego this season.

Does that mean the signing was bad? Not necessarily. If San Diego continues to build around Hosmer, it could be a great investment. But that’s a lot of money tied up in one player for the foreseeable future.

Hosmer is projected for a season with 22 homers and 87 RBI. They’re OK … but are they worth $20 million this season? If they are, Nolan Arenado must be licking his chops for his turn to test the free agent market.

Speaking of Nolan Arenado, my next bold prediction is that the Colorado Rockies will lock up Arenado with a long-term extension by the time this season is over. I talked about how now was the perfect time to start the talks with the current face of the Rockies franchise. I believe Colorado will take advantage of the situation (as I discussed in this article) and make sure Arenado doesn’t hit the free agent market next offseason.

Honestly, the worst thing that could happen in Colorado is that Charlie Blackmon leaves after this season and DJ LeMahieu goes along as well. With Carlos Gonzalez on a one-year contract, those are some big departures in the clubhouse with Arenado’s contract set to expire after the 2019 season.

Colorado has young talent waiting to take their turn in the lineup, including Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia, David Dahl, Mike Tauchman and others. These young players will need someone like an Arenado in the clubhouse as the cornerstone of the franchise moving forward. Fans will also need to see that these young players have a veteran leader to follow. That player is Arenado.

There are few talents like Arenado in the game today, at the plate or in the field. His work ethic and dedication to playing every day is an example to be followed. He’s the type of player you want to have on your team. Colorado general manager Jeff Bridich will make the right call this season and ink Arenado to a long-term, massive deal.

How much could that be? We talked numbers in this article.

The San Francisco Giants made two big signings during the offseason, bringing Andrew McCutchen over from the Pittsburgh Pirates and inking Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria as their new third baseman.

These moves alone make the Giants stronger this season. In fact, I believe McCutchen will reward the Giants with an All-Star type season and will be one of the National League’s All-Star outfielders when the All-Star Game is played in July in Washington, D.C.

At the age of 31, McCutchen certainly has the skills to grab an All-Star spot. Last season was the seventh straight campaign where he hit 23 or more home runs. He also has driven in 80 or more runs in six of the last seven campaigns.

A change of scenery won’t stop McCutchen from delivering at the plate. In fact, it could be argued that the talent surrounding McCutchen in San Francisco is better than he had around him in Pittsburgh over the last couple of seasons.

McCutchen is projected to have a 23-homer, 78-RBI season while slashing .268/.357/.463. That will put a jump in the Giants lineup. It will also help him head back to the All-Star Game for the first since making his fifth consecutive appearance in 2015.

Note: This prediction was written before Madison Bumgarner’s injury that will cost him the start of the season. While it’s not impossible for this prediction to come true, it’s highly improbable.

Let’s stay with the Giants for my next bold prediction. After an injury-shortened season in 2017, I believe Madison Bumgarner will finish higher in the Cy Young balloting than Clayton Kershaw or any other pitcher in the division.

Two years ago, Bumgarner finished fourth in Cy Young balloting after going 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA. That tied for the highest he has ever placed in Cy Young voting. This season, the 28-year-old southpaw returns to the mound with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove.

Last season was derailed by a motor bike accident in Colorado in April. That injury seemed to send the Giants into a freefall that lasted all season.

This year, however, as we discussed, San Francisco is improved at the plate and will have Bumgarner leading the way on the mound. If he returns to 2016 form and the Giants offense performs as it is capabale of doing, Bumgarner could be line for more than his career-high of 18 wins in season.

Will San Francisco be good enough to make the postseason? No. However, Bumgarner will be good enough on the mound (and also at the plate) to show Cy Young voters he is back and worthy of their votes.

He won’t win but he will finish higher than Kershaw. Let’s say they finish two and three behind Washington’s Max Scherzer.