Colorado Rockies: Roundtable season projections and outlooks

By Noah Yingling

Some of the projections for the Rockies in 2018 have been low-balling the team, in my opinion. Yesterday, we discussed in this article yesterday that some publications, like ESPN, have the potential record for the Rockies being as low as 67-95, which is preposterous. I understand lowballing the team, to a degree. The National League West, in all likelihood, will be the most competitive division in all of baseball. In my predictions, I actually have four of the five teams that reside in the National League above a .500 record. I only have three teams above .500 in two other divisions (the NL Central and the AL East).

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So, part of their reasoning is that they believe that the D’Backs and Giants are better. The Giants lost 98 games last season after making the playoffs the season prior. I don’t think that they will make the playoffs but they will be much improved.

The biggest loss for D’Backs was the loss of J.D. Martinez. He was the biggest offensive piece in the second half of the season. They also lost a lot of bullpen pieces and, according to Roster Resource, they have two non-roster invitees and a Rule Five pick slated to make their bullpen. On top of that, Zack Greinke may not be ready for Opening Day due to injury and it may linger throughout the season.

The Rockies improved their bullpen a lot and their young starting pitching will have another year of development. My concern is actually the offense. Outside of Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, it’s a bunch of question marks. Can Trevor Story lead the NL in strikeouts and hit above .250? Will CarGo and Ian Desmond have rebound seasons? I think that they will and, even if they do, the Rockies are the second best team in the NL West.

Prediction: 90-72, 2^nd in the NL West, 1^st NL Wild Card

Biggest surprise player: Carlos Gonzalez

Biggest disappointment: Adam Ottavino

By Lucas Mullins

Biggest surprise player

I think the excitement and relief of being back in the clubhouse with his teammates is only the beginning of a great comeback season for Carlos Gonzalez. As much as I want to see young players like Raimel Tapia and David Dahl get their chance to prove themselves, CarGo has already proven himself in seasons past and I suspect 2018 will look a lot more like those seasons than last year.

It’s true, CarGo is getting older, but looking at the way he finished 2017, it’s clear he still has the ability to torture opposing pitching.

I also want to throw in a shout out to Chris Iannetta. He won’t hit in the middle of the order but after crushing 17 homers for Arizona last season, I think he’s primed to impress Rockies fans in 2018.

Biggest disappointment player  

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The biggest reason the Rockies made the playoffs last year was their young pitching staff and they will rely heavily on these arms again in 2018.  Although I expect most of these guys to take a step forward, it is almost certain that someone will take a step back. Antonio Senzatela had a solid rookie campaign in 2017. However, despite his early-season success and some strong outings out of the bullpen, he certainly struggled at times.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Senzatela, but out of all the young guys, I think he’s most likely to deal with the sophomore jinx.

Buyers or sellers?

General Manager Jeff Bridich understands he has a small window to win with the nearing expiration of his star players’ contracts. I think the Rockies will be buying at the deadline, but I don’t see them making any blockbuster moves. Even if they have a worse year than we’d like, I don’t think they will be so far out of it by July 31 that they become sellers.

Season prediction 

89-73. In 2018, I suspect the Rockies starting pitching will continue to improve, posting slightly better numbers than in 2017, the offense will be a serious threat with bounce-back seasons from Gonzalez and Trevor Story, and the bullpen will dominate the late innings, showing why they got so much money this offseason.

I think the Rockies will make the Wild Card game again this year and will see a strong performance from a more matured Jon Gray. I’m not sure they will make it past the NLDS, however, especially if they wind up having to face the Dodgers.

By Nick Bunney

For my breakout player this season, I’ll go with Trevor Story. You could argue that 2016 was Trevor’s breakout season, but it was cut short in July and we all saw the struggles as the pitching adjusted to him in his sophomore campaign. I think Trevor’s hot spring training is no mirage and he hits for a .282 BA, with 32 HR and 105 RBI in 2018, all while finishing in the top two for the Gold Glove at shortstop. The Rockies become known for the best left side of the infield in all of baseball.

Colorado Rockies

As for our disappointing player, I will say new closer Wade Davis. While it pains me to predict a disappointment and I hope I am wrong, there were some concerns among Cubs fans at his performance as the year progressed in 2017, and it would be understandable for those struggles to magnify in his first year at altitude. Don’t worry, he’ll bounce back.

The Rockies will be buyers at the trade deadline. As in 2017, the Rockies start hot and duke it out with the Dodgers for the top spot in the division for a couple months before the Dodgers pull out to a five- or six-game lead for the meaty part of the season. The Rockies add two much needed pieces at the deadline, including a starting pitcher in hopes of catching the Dodgers in the West.

As October arrives, the Rockies post a 90-72 record but cannot overcome a costly sweep to the Dodgers down the stretch and place second in the NL West. They host the NL Wild Card Game against Milwaukee, and after a seasonably warm night goes the Rockies way, they advance to the NLDS, where they lose in five games to the eventual World Champion Chicago Cubs.

By Greg Moore

Biggest surprise player

Carlos Gonzalez. I’d love to tell you it’ll be David Dahl or first time All-Star Ryan McMahon, but I think the bigger surprise than the two of them lighting it up this year, will be the resurgence of CarGo. The fact that he’s a huge team guy, leader, positive role model, etc., hasn’t been lost on anyone. His late August and into September adjustments last year are what’s going to drive this dominant season. I fully expect him to finish with a .285/30/90 line that will help carry this Rox team into October. With an inexpensive one-year contract, he could be the deal of the offseason if it pans out.

Biggest surprise player

Jon Gray. There’s a certain kink in his armor that’s keeping him from moving forward. It’s always the one inning of lost focus. The one that costs him 30 pitches, maybe some confidence and usually a couple runs. If he can get that under control, I think you’ll see him finally take a step toward the proverbial “ace” role.

As for 2018. I think he’s going to have more downs than ups, during a time this young Rox team could really use him. The physical tools are more than there. The mental tools are struggling more often than not.

Buyers or sellers?

If the Rockies are within grasp of a playoff spot, you’ll see them filling holes with some likely big name players. Don’t count out a rental in 2018. Last season saw the Rockies picking up Pat Neshek and Jonathan Lucroy full well knowing they’d be free agents at the end of they year. They didn’t burn much in the way of prospects to get them. This Rockies system is loaded with the talent to pull of a blockbuster trade, and this could be the year they’ll need it.

Season prediction

I believe the Rockies will go 90-72 and grab a Wild Card spot. I don’t think they’ll be far out of first place, but I think the Dodgers have the talent and the money to stay ahead of the pack. If they can get through the play-in game, all bets are off. A young, talented core of players who get hot, and don’t know any better are dangerous. Look at the 2015 Royals, 2017 Astros, etc. I don’t expect them to win the World Series, but I think they have the talent to get there.

By Aaron Hurt

Surprise Player

No question Carlos Gonzalez will be the Rockies’ biggest surprise player. For a guy who wasn’t on a team until two weeks before the season, he is relieved to be back in a Rockies uniform. He should bounce back because contract talks will no longer be a distraction. He knows he’s lucky to back in Denver and I believe his carefree attitude will help him tremendously.

Disappointing Player

For those that have been following my articles, the obvious prediction for disappointing player is Ian Desmond, but that’s the easy way out. I will take some heat for this but I’m predicting that Wade Davis will be a disappointment in 2018. He is replacing the Rockies’ single season save leader after signing the largest contract ever for a reliever. That is a lot to live up to. My biggest concern is his nasty curveball won’t adjust to Coors Field. Much like the late Darryl Kile, Wade’s curve will hang in the rarified air in Denver and could lead to a lot of blown saves. I hope I am wrong.

Buyers/Sellers

The Rockies will be big trade partners no matter their record in July. They have a lot of expiring contracts that will be moved, most likely DJ LeMahieu and Gerardo Parra. As long as the young rotation pitches well and Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez have bounce-back years, they should be buyers.

Final Prediction 

With a lot of question marks, I haven’t gotten a good feel for how 2018 will go. I do believe that the Dodger and D-Backs will come back to the pack because of some of their departures this offseason but the Giants and Padres got better. That said, I’m predicting 85-77 for third in the West but missing out of the Wild Card by four games.

By Edison Hatter

Surprise Player

Brendan Rodgers will prove to be the biggest surprise player of the year. He has been highly touted since being drafted three years ago and will likely begin the year at AA Hartford. I expect Rodgers to have a breakout year at the AA level before being called up around the middle of the season and helping contribute to the Rockies success in the second half of the season.

Disappointing Player

The biggest disappointment of the year will he Nolan Arenado. After a huge year last year, expectations will be extremely high for Arenado entering this season. Everyone will expect him to perform at the same level he has been for the past few seasons. At some point, he will be unable to better his stats year after year. This season will be that point.

Buyers/Sellers

At the deadline, the Rockies are going to be buyers. While the team looks strong to begin the year, it is likely that a weak spot will emerge at some point in the season. The Rockies will look to buy at the deadline to bolster their playoff hopes.

Final Prediction 

Overall, the Rockies will have a successful season, similar to last year. They once again will finish in a Wild Card position in the NL, but will win the game this year to advance to the NLDS. They will fall in the NLDS to conclude their 2018 season.

By Olivia Greene

Surprise Player

This title would have to go to Raimel Tapia. I know as of now things are a little crazy because of the CarGo signing, but hopefully Bud Black keeps him on the roster. I see a lot of promise and potential in this guy. He could be a major factor if the Rockies get back to the postseason. Black obviously sees his potential if he’s got this kid hitting leadoff. I know it’s just Spring Training games, but this could lead to more at-bats. If he gets more at-bats this guy could do some damage.

I’ve written about Tapia numerous times and I won’t stop I have a gut feeling that this kid will be a true stud in the coming season. As long as he gets his shot, he’ll do good for the franchise. Like always, speed kills and he most certainly has it.

Disappointing Player

I was actually going back and forth between Chris Iannetta and Ryan McMahon, but I’ll cut Iannetta some slack. The only reason I’m saying Ryan McMahon is due to the fact that he’s brand new to first base. Some may look over that position, but it’s vital in games. This whole offseason as I’ve seen the free agent first basemen get signed, I grew more and more skeptical of having McMahon at first.

Now I’m only saying that position-wise it might blow back up in the Rockies’ faces since they haven’t looked to getting an external first basemen. Batting-wise, hopefully he’ll do fine … though my mind goes directly to how he’s going to do at a position he’s hasn’t played full-time before. This move may make Colorado regret not going after Mark Reynolds or any of the other first basemen. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Buyers or Sellers?

Looking at the potential Opening Day roster right now, I’m going to go ahead and say sellers. I just don’t see them having Chris Iannetta in the long-term. Also, if Ian Desmond doesn’t have at least an OK year, I think it’d be time to open that payroll a little bit. With Arenado, Blackmon, and LeMahieu nearing the end of their contracts, opening up the payroll is a smart move to extend or resign these guys. I couldn’t even tell you who they should go after. Maybe a first baseman if the scenario above happens. Most likely a position player that can help out during the postseason.

Season Prediction

Looking over many of the predictions for the Rockies on different publications, I’d say they have them a little low. I wrote about how they are essentially playing everyone, including the media. I will say the Rockies have a chance at being in second behind the Dodgers, so I’ll say my prediction will be 90-72. They’ll be first in the Wild Card and will probably have to play the Brewers. Since the Rox will have home field advantage, they’ll most likely win. That means they’ll probably go on to play the Dodgers. I won’t predict who will win that because I’m being logical with answering these. I mean it’s baseball. The best part is that anything can happen. However, I will say the NLDS will probably go to a final neck and neck game. That’s all I’ll say when it comes to that.

By Ben Macaluso

The Colorado Rockies have never been to the playoffs in back-to-back years in franchise history. This is the season that will change that. The Rockies at the very least have the core of the best team they’ve fielded this decade.

The difference that will help them repeat as a playoff team is their bullpen. With the signings of Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and keeping Jake McGee and Chris Rusin, the Rockies have a incredibly expensive bullpen. While overspending doesn’t always lead to success, it is nice to see the bullpen emphasized. Signing Davis will make losing Greg Holland easier to swallow.

Traditionally, relievers show the most worth in the playoffs because starters often pitch less than they do in the regular season. The Rockies’ starters eat less innings than standard starters. For these young starters to avoid sophomore slumps, they will need to rely heavily on the bullpen. These new additions will help them reach their potential through rest. This will be the best bullpen the Rockies have ever fielded, therefore making the starters well rested to make a run into the playoffs.

The player to be the most surprise will be David Dahl. I don’t think he will make the Opening Day roster but that will only benefit him and the club. Getting every day reps at Triple-A Albuquerque will get him back in the shape he needs after missing 2017. He showed so much potential in 2016 and he will be a great addition, especially with his bat as a fourth outfielder.

The biggest disappointment will be Trevor Story. Not that he will regress this season but it will be hard to emulate his phenomenal rookie season before he went down with a thumb injury. I actually predict he will have a bounce back season but it won’t be enough to fend off the rising star in Brendan Rodgers, who I predict will make his major league debut this season.

While Carlos Gonzalez will continue the hot streak from his August and September last season, ultimately there is probably too many outfielders on this team. The Rockies will need to solidify their starting rotation and will trade for more depth. Unfortunately I think this is the last season we see CarGo in a Rockies uniform and they will be sellers at the trade deadline. I think the club will try to get something for CarGo before they lose him to free agency at the end of the year.

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The division got better especially with the Giants and Padres but I don’t predict that will translate to them reaching the playoffs. The Diamondbacks will regress without J.D. Martinez and the Dodgers are a sure bet to make the playoffs and most likely win the division. I think the Rockies will reach the playoffs as a Wild Card team once again, improving their win total three games with a record of 90-72.