Colorado Rockies: A path to taking that "next step" and winning the division

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DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 30: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates in the lockerroom at Coors Field on September 30, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. Although losing 5-3 to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Rockies celebrated clinching a wild card spot in the post season. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Last week, I discussed how important of a year 2018 is for the Colorado Rockies. With the opportunity of establishing themselves as a year in, year out contender on the line as well as a chance to continue building respect with the national media, this season could work to either elevate the franchise or could possibly even (gasp) spell the beginning of its unraveling if poor performance forces our hand in “seller” trade talks at the deadline.

So what do the Rockies need to do to avoid the latter and launch themselves into a new realm of contention? How can the Rockies capture their first division title in franchise history and make a deeper run into October? Well, I was thinking about the areas the Rockies seem to struggle in and, on a hunch, I dove into the world of ballpark metrics to see if the Rockies were challenged by so-called “pitcher’s ballparks” as much as it seemed to me a year ago.

Now before I draw outcry from the folks out there who staunchly defend Coors Field and the Rockies ability to perform on the road, worry not. I am one of you. I believe that Coors Field is certainly a hitter’s park, but I also saw the Rockies achieve a 41-40 record on the road a year ago … good enough for a playoff bid. So I am not saying the team is a product of the ballpark they play in, but I am acknowledging that with the hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field, it is only natural to build a team that specializes in its most common arena. It’s the same reason teams like the Giants, who play in a pitcher’s park, tend to hone in on pitching talent perhaps a bit better than the Rockies have historically. You want your team to fit its ballpark.

The results

Hitter’s Parks – Even if you disregard the Rockies record at Coors Field last year (46-35), they performed well in hitter’s parks. They posted a road record of 18-10 (.643 Win%) in these hitter havens.
Fair Parks – Here we can already see a bit of regression, with a record of 11-9 (.550 Win%) a year ago in ballparks that played relatively fair for bother pitchers and hitters.
Pitcher’s Parks – The Rockies went 12-21 (.364 Win%) a year ago in the parks that surrendered the least amount of offense

As we can see, the Rockies smartly built their team in a way that would be successful where they play most: Coors Field. This unit also traveled well to similar ballparks that yield their own fair share of offense. As for the fair parks, I have no qualms with going 11-9. These are road games after all and really any time you can go .500 on the road, you’ll take it no matter how stat nerds like myself can twist it. The pitcher’s parks, however, is where things get a little shaky.

If you think back to this past season, you’ll start to remember the bad road trips. Most of them featured stops in places like New York, Miami, San Francisco and St. Louis. All of these places play heavily to the pitcher. Historically, the Rockies have struggled in these cities, and I’ll throw old Turner Field into the mix too from when the Braves called it home. I don’t think we ever won a game at Turner Field (kidding, sort of).

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I think if the Rockies want to take that next step of claiming a division title and/or advancing deep into the playoffs, they are going to have to start with tightening up their performance in pitcher-friendly environments. If they had gone just one game over .500 last season in pitcher’s parks, that solid 87-75 record turns into 92-70. That looks a lot more like a division-contending record, doesn’t it?

Not only that, but if you think about late-playoff baseball, you think of cold nights where you can see the hitter’s breath and every run is of dire importance. As September flips to October, even hitter-friendly yards can turn nasty as the temperatures drop and the stakes rise. Becoming a better team in pitching environments is key to making a deep playoff run.

So, what on Earth can the Rockies can do to improve their performance in pitching havens? I take a look at that next, as well as provide an exciting statistic from Spring Training that points to the fact that Buddy Black is already two steps ahead of me.

SCOTTSDALE, AZ – MARCH 05: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies is congratulated by teammate DJ LeMahieu #9 after hitting a two run home run during the first inning of a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 5, 2018 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

A path to improvement

There are two sides to every story in baseball: the hitting and pitching. Pitching is fairly self-explanatory in pitcher’s parks (keep the other guys as close to zero as possible), so for this article, I’ll focus on how we can improve offensively when the offense is, quite frankly, tough to get.

Colorado Rockies

In pitcher’s ballparks, on most nights, a team needs to be able to manufacture runs. That means not relying on one of your power guys hitting a bomb with two guys on and getting a three-run chunk all at once, but rather getting a guy on base and, through hits as well as productive outs, getting him around the bases and home. It also means taking advantage of errors made in the field with aggressive and smart base running.

I think three common statistics are rather telling in how well a team is able to manufacture runs: strikeouts, double play ground outs, and stolen bases. If you’re trying to advance runners, strikeouts and double plays spell absolute doom. They are meaningless outs that not only fail to advance the runner in most cases as with the strikeout, but completely wipes the runner off the base paths, as is the case with GIDPs (Grounded Into Double Plays). Stolen bases is an important stat for obvious reasons. After all, a free 90 feet in a pitcher’s park is gold.

So how did the Rockies perform in these three stats a year ago? Not good. They had the fifth-most strikeouts of any National League team, only the New York Mets stole fewer bases, and they led the NL in double play ground outs. There you have it. Right there. The Rockies struggled getting bases on their own (steals), putting the ball in play in key moments (strikeouts) and at times shot themselves in the foot big-time with the GIDPs.

These poor showings are masked a bit more in hitter’s parks such as Coors Field because the gap doubles and long balls can overcome these deficiencies. In pitcher’s parks and as the stakes rise in the playoffs, however, they will need to be improved on if the Rockies want to take that next step.

SCOTTSDALE, AZ – MARCH 12: Gerardo Parra #8 of the Colorado Rockies takes a lead from second base as Nick Ahmed #13 of the Arizona Diamondbacks gets ready to make a play during the fifth inning of a spring training game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 12, 2018 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

The last thing I’ll do here is take a quick look to see if the Rockies are addressing any of these issues during the spring. I know, I know. Spring stats don’t matter, but its all we have to go on right now so let’s see if the Rockies are working on it. Spoiler: they are.

This spring, the Rockies LEAD THE MAJORS in stolen bases. You read that correctly. They lead both the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues in stolen bags, and they lead the category by a lot. Their 28 steals lead all of spring baseball with the next closest team being the Cubs with 22. They are also seventh in the NL in strikeouts, which isn’t ideal, but hey, middle of the pack is an improvement over bottom five.

I could not find any source that tracked GIDPs during Spring Training, so the jury will remain out on that one, but I think the vastly improved stolen base numbers and lessened number of strikeouts is extremely encouraging.

Next: Potential lineups now that CarGo is back in the dugout

It’s the little things like these that can make a huge difference when two or three runs is the winning number, and the little things is what the Rockies need to work on if they are looking to take that next step and contend anywhere and everywhere, most importantly in late October.

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Colorado Rockies: A path to taking that “next step” and winning the division

The results

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A path to improvement

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