Colorado Rockies: The case for and against adding three free agents

It has been reported that the Colorado Rockies are still in contact with Carlos Gonzalez about a possible reunion for the 2018 season. There was a time not long ago when the thought of bringing back CarGo for another run with the Rockies was not considered a serious thought. However, there is apparently still life in the possibility of it occurring.

There is also talk about bringing back former Rockies Mark Reynolds and Corey Dickerson for another run with the team. In fact, there are still numerous free agents out there who could be a fit with Colorado for 2018. Hey, Jon Heyman even linked Colorado as a possible home for Jonathan Lucroy again this season. There are still a lot of possibilities out there for what could happen between now and the end of spring training.

However, one thing to consider with any signing is this: What will it do to the 25-man Opening Day roster? Signing CarGo, Reynolds, Dickerson, Lucroy or any other current free agent almost assuredly gives them a spot on the Opening Day roster. And, with that, someone will lose their spot on that same roster.

Last year’s Opening Day roster featured 13 pitchers and 12 position players. Of those 12 position players, two were catchers. That left 10 spots to split between infield and outfield. By the way, if you want to know just how much the Rockies roster has evolved in a year, remember that Cristhian Adames, Alexi Amarista and Stephen Cardullo were members of last year’s Opening Day roster.

If manager Bud Black once again brings 12 position players into the Opening Day this season, that would likely once again mean 10 outfielders/infielders and two catchers. We know some of those spots are already taken by (barring injury) Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond and Gerardo Parra. That leaves four spots.

That group would likely need a first baseman (Ryan McMahon) and backup infielder (Pat Valaika). You’re now down to two spots with names like David Dahl and Raimel Tapia likely to fill those. By signing CarGo, Reynolds or anyone else, one of the names listed above would likely fall off the Opening Day roster.

Dahl’s health is still a question mark and he or Tapia could start the season in Triple-A regardless if someone like a Mike Tauchman or Jordan Patterson were to impress in spring training. However, one of the two will assuredly be in the minors to start the season with a single free agent signing.

So how would a free agent signing impact the Rockies? Let’s take a look at some of the projections of three former Rockies now looking for a new home.

Carlos Gonzalez (2017 with Colorado) — .262/.339/.423 with 14 home runs and 72 RBI in 534 plate appearances.

CarGo is projected by Baseball Reference to post a .270/.335/.476 slash in 2018 with 22 homers and 72 RBI. That is in 530 plate appearances. Could he reach that number with the Rockies knowing Dahl could return this season and the potential emergence of Tapia?

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Using the Steamer projection on FanGraphs, CarGo is slotted for 14 homers and 40 RBI in 332 plate appearances along with a .259/.324/.461 slash line. The 332 plate appearances seem more realistic if CarGo were to return to Denver, serving in more of a split role.

While Gonzalez would bring his leadership to the Rockies if he were to re-sign with the team, it is hard to put out of mind the year that CarGo had last season and some of the frustration his slump brought to the team and the lineup. Certainly, he found his stride in September when the Rockies needed it most and credited solving some sleep problems as one of the main reasons. However, can the Rockies trust that trend to continue in 2018? It’s a gamble and one that may be worth the millions of dollars it takes to bring CarGo back, even for a season.

CarGo joins Dahl, Blackmon, Parra, Tapia and Tauchman as left-handed bats. Is that too much of a good thing? Quite possibly. The same could be said for Corey Dickerson, who we will examine on the next page.

Mark Reynolds (2017 with Colorado) — .267/.352/.487 with 30 home runs and 97 RBI in 593 plate appearances.

We have talked outfielders in the last two slides. Here, let’s talk about Mark Reynolds and what his return might bring.

This season, the 34-year-old Reynolds is projected to hit 22 home runs and drive in 73 with a slash line of .258/.338/.451 in 541 plate appearances. All indications are that, if Reynolds returns to the Rockies, it would be a platoon situation with McMahon.

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Much like Dickerson, since Reynolds is in limbo as a free agent, FanGraphs Steamer projections can only give us a .228/.312/.407 projection. That’s pretty brutal but let’s not forget that Reynolds batted just .243 after the All-Star break while 11 of his 30 homers and 36 of his 97 RBI were after the break as well.

Once of the biggest positives that a returning Reynolds would bring would be on the defensive side. Arenado has glowed about the first baseman’s defensive skills in the past and they would likely pay a dividend for the Rockies this season.

For what it’s worth, Baseball Reference is projecting .251/.335/.428 for McMahon this season with seven homers and 24 RBI in 212 plate appearances. Give McMahon as many plate appearances as Reynolds got in his simulation and it balloons to 26 home runs and 93 RBI. Very similar numbers, although McMahon has never hit more than 20 in a season … and that was split last year between Double-A and Triple-A.

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So a return of Reynolds could conceivably be equal to a year of McMahon statistically. If that’s the case, it seems worth it to see what you have in McMahon this year and platoon Desmond there if needed. Worst case, the Rockies could pick up someone at the trade deadline if needed.