Colorado Rockies: what will it take to lock up Nolan Arenado long term?

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Friday was the deadline to sign players who were arbitration eligible to contracts for 2018. Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant broke the record for salary for a first-time arbitration eligible player with a $10.85 million contract. According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago, Bryant’s contract breaks the record set by Ryan Howard with a $10 million contract for the 2008 season. So, with Bryant setting a precedent, will it affect the market for Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado?

Kris Bryant is one of the best players in baseball. In fact, in three seasons in the major leagues, he made the All-Star team twice, won the National League Rookie of the Year award, won the 2016 National League Most Valuable Player Award, and has been in the top 11 in NL MVP voting in each of his two other MLB seasons.

Along with breaking the first-time arbitration contract record, he broke the record for a contract by pre-arbitration eligible player for the 2017 season with a contract for $1.05 million.

So, with Bryant earning all of this before he is even a free agent (and still not even eligible for free agency for another four years), could his record breaking contracts thus far in his MLB career affect the potential contract the Nolan Arenado could get in two years when he is eligible for free agency?

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs warms up before game four of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field on October 18, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

For Bryant, he has played three seasons in the Major Leagues and each have been stellar seasons.

In 2015, his rookie season, he played in 151 games, he had 87 runs, 154 hits, 31 doubles, 26 home runs, 99 RBI, 13 stolen bases, a .275/.369/.488 slash line, and a 135 OPS+. He was also an All-Star, won the National League Rookie of the Year Award, and he came in 11th in the NL MVP voting.

In 2016, Bryant played in 155 games and he had 121 runs (which led the National League), 176 hits, 35 doubles, 39 home runs, 102 RBI, a .292/.385/.554 slash line, and a 146 OPS+. He was also an All-Star and he won the National League MVP award. To put the icing on top of the cake, he helped the Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years.

In 2017, he played in 151 games and he had 111 runs, 162 hits, 38 doubles, 29 home runs, 73 RBI, 95 walks (he never had more than 77 before), a .295/.409/.537 slash line, and a 143 OPS+. He was not an All-Star but he ranked seventh in the NL MVP race.

Defensively, Bryant is above average as he has a total of 16 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Baseball Reference. It should be noted that in the Major Leagues, he has played third base, center field, left field, right field, first base, and shortstop. With the exception of shortstop, where he only played one inning there in 2016, he has at least 1 DRS at each of the other positions that he has played at so, he plays well at any position that he is put at on the diamond.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 16: Nolan Arenado. Photo courtesy of Getty Images. /

In 2015, Arenado played in 157 games with 97 runs, 177 hits, 43 doubles, 42 home runs, 130 RBI (the last two of which led the NL), a .287/.323/.575 slash line, and a 124 OPS+. He was an All-Star, came in eighth in NL MVP voting, and he won the Silver Slugger Award and Gold Glove Award for NL third baseman.

In 2016, he led the NL in 160 games played and he had 116 runs, 182 hits, 35 doubles, 41 home runs, 133 RBI (both of which led the NL for the second straight season), a .294/.362/.570 slash line, and a 129 OPS+. He was an All-Star, came in fifth in NL MVP voting, and he won the Silver Slugger Award and Gold Glove Award for NL third baseman.

In 2017, he played in 159 games and he had 100 runs, 187 hits, 43 doubles (which led the league), 37 home runs, 130 RBI, a .309/.373/.586 slash line, and a 132 OPS+. He was an All-Star, came in fourth in NL MVP voting, and he won the Silver Slugger Award and Gold Glove Award for NL third baseman.

Defensively, most Rockies fans know that Arenado is one of, if not the best, defenders in the entire sport. Kris Bryant has 16 DRS for his entire, three-year MLB career. By comparison, Arenado has never had a season where he has had less than 16 DRS, which he had in only 111 games in 2014. In the three seasons that Bryant has been in the league, Arenado has had 18, 20 and 20 DRS in those seasons.

DENVER, CO – JUNE 18: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates hitting a 3 RBI walk off home run in the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on June 18, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Going by sheer offensive numbers, Arenado is the clear winner over Bryant as Arenado has averaged 40 home runs and 131 RBI to Bryant’s 31 homers and 91 RBI since 2015. However, when you consider that Arenado averaged a slash line .297/.353/.557 and Bryant slashed a .288/.388/.527, their numbers are close to even. But when you adjust for the parks played in (with OPS+), Bryant is the clear winner over Arenado, 142 to 128.

Defensively, Arenado’s 58 Defensive Runs Saved compared to Bryant’s 16 DRS since 2015 makes him the clear winner.

On the baserunning front, Bryant’s sprint speed of 28.2 feet per second, fourth best among third baseman, according to Statcast. Arenado averaged 26.7 feet per second, 32nd among third baseman and 0.3 under league average for all players so Bryant has Arenado beat here.

In Wins Above Replacement, the two are in a dead heat, but Bryant leads by a 0.2 margin, 19.7 to 19.5.

What will it take to lock up Arenado long-term?

With Bryant making record-breaking contracts and their third base counterpart of the Toronto Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson (who had 21.1 WAR in the past three seasons but been declining in each of those three years) breaking an arbitration record in general by making $23 million for 2018, according to Shi Davidi of SportsNet, Arenado could easily make $25 million for the 2019 season.

With that being said, for a long term contract, Arenado would be entering his age 29 season when he becomes a free agent. I would guess that he could get $35 million a season and he’d probably be able to get eight years (perhaps even more). That would put a contract at 8 years and $280 million.

That may be a steep price to pay for the Rockies and they may not even be able to do it. Honestly, though, I would not be surprised to see it climb to nine or ten years and approaching $40 million a season. At that point, you are flirting with $400 million.

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Only time will tell if Arenado will be able to demand that kind of money in a few years but with the arbitration deals of Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson, it will take a few bank trucks to pay the man what he is worth.

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Colorado Rockies: what will it take to lock up Nolan Arenado long term?

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