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Colorado Rockies: making the case for acquiring Jose Abreu

By Noah Yingling |
CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 26: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox hits his 32nd home run of the season, a solo shot in the 1st inning, against the Los Angeles Angels at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 26: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox hits his 32nd home run of the season, a solo shot in the 1st inning, against the Los Angeles Angels at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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Jose Abreu is one of the best players on the trade market this offseason. Photo courtesy of Getty Images.
Jose Abreu is one of the best players on the trade market this offseason. Photo courtesy of Getty Images. /

In 2017, the Colorado Rockies offense was, quite frankly, awful but, with one move, the team could improve the offense immensely.

The Colorado Rockies offense was remarkably weak in 2017. With OPS+, which adjusts to the parks played in, the Rockies were nine percent (91 OPS+) below league average offensively, or tied for 26th in baseball. In fact, only four players had an “above average” OPS+ in their tenure with the Rockies in 2017 (Charlie Blackmon at 142, Nolan Arenado at 132, Jonathan Lucroy at 115, and  Mark Reynolds at 105).

But, just looking at it in a scope with Colorado Rockies history, it was one of the worst, especially by wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus). This is where each Rockies team has fallen by wRC+ since 2002, which is when the humidor was created in Coors Field for the baseballs.

Colorado Rockies Offense, 2002-2017

SeasonRecordRunsAVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+
201466-96740.284.335.460.347104
200790-73843.287.362.453.355103
200992-70784.267.351.456.351102
201675-87829.283.345.474.34999
200468-94807.281.354.468.35399
201083-79747.271.346.441.34498
200874-88738.271.346.431.34196
201264-98741.280.337.449.33995
200676-86794.280.351.451.34495
200374-88823.272.351.458.34995
201374-88695.277.330.432.33394
201173-89720.264.338.422.33294
201787-75804.281.347.459.34294
200567-95724.274.342.426.33592
201568-94717.273.324.448.33191
200273-89748.275.341.428.33585

As you can see, the three teams worse offensively were not teams to write home about in the win-loss column. Even the teams surrounding them were not particularly good.

One of the leaders in offensive production is on a team that has been floundering the past few seasons: first baseman Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox. As Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors noted back in November, when Abreu signed with the White Sox, the Rockies were very interested in him then so one would have to guess that they would still be very interested in him now.

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Jose Abreu has spent four seasons in the Major Leagues. In 2014, his first season in the Majors, he played in 145 games with 80 runs, 176 hits, 35 doubles, 36 home runs, 107 RBI, a .317 batting average, a .383 on-base percentage, a .581 slugging percentage (which led the American League), and a 173 OPS+ (which also led the AL). He was an All-Star, won the Rookie of the Year award for the American League, won the Silver Slugger Award for American League first baseman, and came in fourth in AL MVP voting.

In 2015, in 154 games, he had 88 runs, 178 hits, 34 doubles, 30 homers, 101 RBI, a .290/.347/.502 slashline, and a 135 OPS+.

In 2016, he played in 159 games and had 67 runs, 183 hits, 32 doubles, 25 home runs, 100 RBI, a .293/.353/.468, and an OPS+ of 124.

Last season, Abreu played in 154 games with 95 runs (career high), 189 hits (career high), 43 doubles (career high), 33 home runs, 102 RBI, a .304/.354/.552 slashline, and an OPS+ of 140.

If you are keeping track, in each and every season, he has played in 145 or more games with a minimum of 25 home runs, 100 RBI, a .290 batting average, a .347 on-base percentage, a .468 slugging percentage, and an OPS+ of 124. If he were to play half of his games in Coors Field, you can reasonably assume that these numbers will go up significantly.

Just in the very small sample size of six games in Coors Field in his career, he has a .391/.462/.826 slashline with three runs, nine hits including two doubles, two home runs, and a triple. He also had five RBI and two walks. Compared to his regular stats, he has done 86 percent better in those games at Coors (186 tOPS+).

CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 27: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox beats the tag of Martin Maldonado #12 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to score on an RBI double by Nicky Delmonico #30 (not pictured) during the fourth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 27, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 27: Jose Abreu #79 of the Chicago White Sox beats the tag of Martin Maldonado #12 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to score on an RBI double by Nicky Delmonico #30 (not pictured) during the fourth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 27, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images) /

Defensively, Abreu is not particularly an excellent defender but he has improved his defense since his rookie season. In 2014, he had -11 Defensive Runs Saves, according to Baseball Reference. However, last season, he had zero Defensive Runs Saved, which is league average.

Also, according to Fangraphs, Abreu’s UZR (or Ultimate Zone Rating, which compares similarly hit balls to others to determine if a specific fielder is better or worse than their counterparts) was 0.5. An even zero is considered to be league average so Abreu is just slightly above average on it.

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Baserunning

While Abreu is not really a threat to steal bases (he has stolen six bases in his four year career and he didn’t steal any in either 2015 or 2016), he is not necessarily a bad baserunner.

Through MLB.com’s Statcast technology, they have a database of the sprint speeds of players. 23 feet per second is considered poor and 30 feet per second is considered to be elite with 27 feet per second being league average. Abreu averaged 26.9 feet per second, or 0.1 below league average. Essentially, Abreu is at league average.

For comparison of players currently on the Rockies, Nolan Arenado averages 26.6 feet per second, or 0.3 feet per second less than Abreu. DJ LeMahieu averages 27.2 feet per second, or 0.3 feet faster than Abreu. As you can see by these comparisons, Abreu is not a bad baserunner but he won’t necessarily be breaking world records.

Final Thoughts

Jose Abreu is an elite power hitter that would help fill a spot for the Rockies at first base and he would give the team a big power bat in the lineup. Also, he would not be a liability in the field defensively and he is not a bad baserunner.

He has two years left before he becomes a free agent so with that, it would take a decent amount of prospects to get him. I would guess that the White Sox would want four prospects and at least one of them would have to be the Rockies top five prospects. Also, it should be considered that Abreu has made between $10 and $13 million in the last two seasons. Being arbitration eligible and making that the past two seasons, I would venture to guess that he will make north of $15 million in 2018.

Next: The case for signing free agent JD Martinez

The Rockies can afford that but it’s just a matter of whether they want to stretch their payroll on one player.

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