Colorado Rockies: The case for signing center fielder Lorenzo Cain

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The Colorado Rockies were a team that struggled offensively in 2017. With park-adjusted offensive metrics, the team was one of the top five worst in all of baseball. Also, the team was one of the worst offensive teams in franchise history. With a few moves, though, that weakness could be turned into a strength.

Yesterday, Mike Petriello of MLB.com published an about center fielder Lorenzo Cain and five teams that need him. One of the five teams that he has listed is the Colorado Rockies. This may be a peculiar move…but only at face value.

The Rockies have Charlie Blackmon in center field, a guy who came in fifth in the National League Most Valuable Player voting last season. However, he could move to right field (or even left field) in 2018.

Cain’s offense

Since 2014, Cain has proven to be a good offensive player. In three of the past four seasons, he has had a batting average over .300 and in two of the four seasons, he has had an on-base percentage higher than .360 and a slugging percentage higher than .440 (in 2016, he did not do any of these because he was injured for part of the season as he only played in 103 games). However, if you look at his 2015 and 2017 seasons, in particular, they are particular good.

KANSAS CITY, MO – AUGUST 6: Lorenzo Cain #6 of the Kansas City Royals hits a RBI double in the fifth inning against the Seattle Mariners in game one of a doubleheader at Kauffman Stadium on August 6, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /

In 2015, he played in 140 games and he had 101 runs with 169 hits, 34 doubles, 16 home runs, 72 RBI, 28 stolen bases, a .307/.361/.477 offensive slash line, and an OPS+ of 125. He was an All-Star for the American League and he also came in third in MVP voting in the American League behind Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, who won the award in 2015.

Last season, he played in 155 games with 86 runs, 175 hits, 27 doubles, 15 home runs, 49 RBI, 26 stolen bases, a .300/.363/.440 slashline, and a 112 OPS+.

You can obviously say that Cain is not as good as Blackmon in the power department but he is still somebody who gets on base a lot of the time. If he could hit in the top one or two spots in the lineup and move Blackmon to a more traditional power spot in the lineup or even put him in the sixth or seventh spot to get on for weaker hitters to advance Cain on the bases, runs will be more plentiful. However, discussing what the Rockies 2018 lineup (with or without Cain or other free agents) is something we can discuss for a later date.

Also, if the Rockies were to get Lorenzo Cain, he would be an elite defender.

Defensively, Blackmon has not been that great as, according to Baseball Reference, he has had between 1 and -7 Defensive Runs Saved per season since 2014 (he had -5 in 2017). Most of that time has been spent in center field.

If the Rockies were to sign Cain to a deal, the Rockies would be gaining a very good offensive player as well as an elite defensive player. With Cain playing center field, since 2013, according to Baseball Reference, Cain has had between 5 and 24 Defensive Runs Saved. Also, by Statcast metrics, in which Petriello is in charge of, Cain was fifth-best in baseball in Outs Above Average, the Statcast outfield metric that is a “range-based metric of skill that shows how many outs an outfielder has saved over his peers, accounting for not only the number of plays an outfielder makes (or doesn’t), but also the difficulty of them.”

Cain’s baserunning

Cain will be turning 32 in April so he will be on the back nine of his career sooner rather than later but he has had between 26 and 28 stolen bases in his last three non-injury plagued seasons (he still had 16 stolen bases in 2016, when he only played in 103 games).

However, as Petriello notes, Cain is still in the top four percent of baserunners by sprint speed at 29.1 feet per second. In comparison to the players on the 2017 Rockies, the only qualifier who was fast than that was Raimel Tapia at 29.5 feet per second.

Final Thoughts

If the Rockies were to sign Cain (and that’s not a given considering that other teams are interested in him), he would be an excellent addition. One thing that should be noted with Cain as well is that he has extensive postseason experience in his time with the Kansas City Royals. He has played in 31 postseason games and he has a .295/.376/.377 slash line with 36 hits and 19 RBI in postseason games. In the 2014 ALCS, he was even named the MVP of the series.

With that, his ability to get on base, his defense, and his baserunning, he should get a good contract on the market. MLB Trade Rumors predicted in November that he would get a four-year, $70 million deal from the San Francisco Giants.

Next: Tim Lincecum is making a comeback. Could the Rockies be interested in him?

If I had to put a number on a contract for him, I would probably put it around where they did. The Rockies should have the revenue to be able to sign him to a contract but whether or not they decide to use it on Cain or for another piece or pieces remains to be seen.

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Colorado Rockies: The case for signing center fielder Lorenzo Cain

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