Colorado Rockies: making the case for free agent Carlos Santana

Santana was originally was a catcher who the Indians acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers for Casey Blake (who later became a Rockie) in 2008. The Indians gave him number 41 when he got to the major leagues because he was a switch hitting catcher from Latin America who had a very similar batting stance to his predecessor, who also shared these traits: Victor Martinez, who wore number 41 himself.

Santana made his MLB debut in 2010 as a catcher. Over time, the Indians transitioned him to first base. They also tried stints at third base (that was not a pretty sight) and, occasionally, have used him corner outfield spots (in a pinch). In the past three seasons or so, the Indians have used him as a designated hitter and first baseman. So, he is versatile on the field but he is also versatile in the lineup.

Just in 2017, he hit sixth in the order in 49 games, first  in 37 games, fifth in 28, 4th in 26, seventh in nine games, and third in four games (he technically hit ninth too but that was only for a pinch hitting appearance). In 2016, he hit leadoff in 86 games and fifth in 59 games (with a few games in other positions sprinkled in). So, he can hit just about anywhere in the lineup for the Rockies. He’d primarily play first base if he were to become a Rockie but he can play the outfield in a pinch (but he hasn’t played third or caught since 2014).

But why has he in so many place in the lineup?

The simple answer to that question is that he is a versatile hitter. He would not be a prototypical lead off man considering he hit .231 in each 2014 and 2015 and .259 in each 2016 and 2017 (he may not even lead off with Charlie Blackmon doing so well in the leadoff spot in 2017) but there is a reason why he lead off so often: his on-base percentage.

Carlos Santana has never had an on-base percentage lower than .351 in his career. Since 2012, his average on-base percentage is .365. This is because he walks a ton. In the past four years, his walk numbers have dropped a few each year but he still had 88 walks in 2017 compared to just 94 strikeouts. In the past four seasons, he has averaged 102 walks a season to 110 strikeouts. With that, this is why he has lead off so often.

But hitting fifth as well is a lot is no small task for a team that went to Game 7 of the World Series in 2016 and won 102 games last season. He has had between 79 and 87 RBI in the past four seasons. Also, he has had 19 or more home runs in each of the four seasons (including 34 homers in 2016). He will also hit his fair share of doubles (he hit 37 last season) which would play well in Coors Field.

Santana only played 64 games at first base in 2016 as the Indians had Mike Napoli play the majority of the games at first base and Santana would be the designated hitter. However, with Napoli leaving the Indians after the 2016 season and the Indians signing Edwin Encarnacion, who almost exclusively DH’s, Santana played first base in 140 games in 2017 while only DH’ing in seven.

Santana’s defense was so good that he was nominated for a Gold Glove. Eric Hosmer won it but if you look at the numbers, it should have been Santana.

Colorado Rockies

According to Fangraphs, Hosmer had -7 Defensive Runs Saved. Santana was much better as he had 10 DRS at first, which was tied for the best in the American League and it was second best of all first baseman in baseball (Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds was first with 11 DRS). Hosmer was 18th among all first baseman in DRS.

With UZR (or Ultimate Zone Rating), Santana was second best in the American League to the Twins’ Joe Mauer (who was number one overall) and third best in baseball among first baseman (behind Mauer and Votto). Hosmer was 12th best so you can easily make the case that Santana should have won the award.

With Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu winning Gold Gloves in 2017 and Trevor Story having 11 DRS, if the Rockies were to add Santana, they would definitely have the best defensive infield in baseball (if they don’t already).

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In their top 50 free agent predictions at the beginning of November, MLB Trade Rumors said that they believe that he is the 12th best free agent on the market. They also predicted that he would sign a three year, $45 million contract. He made $12 million last year so having an average annual value of $15 million is definitely plausible.

Santana will turn 32 in April so he won’t be getting some gargantuan length in a contract (like Hosmer, who just turned 28 last month could get).

I think that MLBTR’s prediction is just about right but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the total go to up to $50 million. Either way, that would be more affordable for the Rockies than what MLBTR is predicting for Hosmer (six years, $132 million).

Final Thoughts

Santana would provide good offensive numbers (118 OPS+ since 2016), good defense, versatility, leadership, and, also, postseason experience. The Indians went to the postseason in 2013 as well as 2016 and 2017. Considering how young and/or inexperienced most of the Rockies are in the postseason, Santana could provide some experience there as well.

Next: The case for signing Eric Hosmer

Coming from somebody who has seen a lot of him, he would be a great addition to the Rockies.