Colorado Rockies: Will they look to lock up Arenado long term?

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PHOENIX, AZ - SEPTEMBER 11: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies makes a play on a ground ball hit by Brandon Drury #27 of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on September 11, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. Drury was forced out at first base. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, AZ - SEPTEMBER 11: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies makes a play on a ground ball hit by Brandon Drury #27 of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on September 11, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. Drury was forced out at first base. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 26: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates as he crosses home plater after hitting a 2 RBI home run in the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on September 26, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 26: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates as he crosses home plater after hitting a 2 RBI home run in the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on September 26, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Currently, he is under team control through the end of the 2019 season. The Rockies and Arenado agreed to a two-year deal back in January. Arenado earned $11.75MM in 2017 and will earn $17.75MM in 2018. Arenado will be arbitration-eligible one last time after this deal is up, and he could become a free agent after the 2019 season. So, there is some time to figure out a new deal. However, it’s never too early to start talking numbers…or even if the Rockies are going to go long term with Arenado.

Before get into the will he/won’t he and will they/won’t they, we need to try to roughly estimate what kind of contract Nolan Arenado is going to pull. The main determining factors (without any context to the teams and their needs) here is fair market value and how the league perceives Arenado’s performance. Let’s start with a baseline number. Now, obviously, this is probably Scott Boras out here driving up the market for his players, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted this out a little over a week ago:

So, what does J.D. Martinez‘s free agency now, have to do with Nolan Arenado? According to Baseball-Reference.com, Nolan Arenado and J.D. Martinez have a similarity score of 923.6 out of 1000. Similarity score is just a methodology of comparing players, factoring in a number of offensive and defensive metrics. No player is more similar to Arenado than Martinez.

Whether you buy into this methodology or not, even a quick side by side comparison shows that they have very similar career numbers offensively. So, we know as a baseline starting point determined by market, Nolan Arenado would be worth the 7 Year, $210 million contract.

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